Do you have a crystal ball? Could you tell when the peak of the market was going to be?

This thread is 6 years old and people were predicting a "crash" at the beginning of it.

6 years later we're only starting to see a slowdown due to direct government intervention with the market.

The difference between your Nat Gas example because that's a commodity, and houses are primarily for a stable roof for people to live under.

Are you advocating for houses be freely traded commodities then? So then you're against the government intervention currently going on. You can't be for both.

people have no patience? when was the last time things really plateaued or dropped for a significant amount of time? before they started working? before they were in diapers?

and rentals the last 4-5 years are quite reasonable too?

dunning-kruger effect

I'm against government interference. Sales were already slowing down in early 2016 and would eventually roll over on its own because buyers were running out of credit. All the government meddling recently just made things worse. The only thing I may have said I would get behind would be a speculation tax but that was in reaction to the foreign buyers tax. If they were going to tax, they should tax all speculators and not target one specific group but I would prefer no meddling.

But no, you don't need a crystal ball. Prices go up and prices go down, time frame can't be called 100% but all you need to know is prices do eventually go down. The only reason I'm saying 2016/2017 was the peak is because rates bottomed and from experience in other assets, the last move up is usually the biggest. Of course I be totally wrong and the market is just taking a breather and is digesting the government meddling.

I'm talking about those who bought during the bidding wars. If someone is bidding hundreds of thousands above what they were expecting then they weren't thinking and had no patience. It's an emotional purchase. The ones who bought prior probably took a little more time to think things through and can probably survive a 30% drop from current prices.

I think there is reason to be concerned with negative FOMO, if people start to see a mass exodus in the interest of profit taking they will also want out, just as these people didn't want to miss out on the way up.

Of course this only applies to people who are in the business of real estate, not individuals/families with a single home.

Indeed people have long called for a crash, I don't know if we'll see a crash, but you can be absolutely certain that as interest rates go up prices will come down.

Even at this point chances are prices won't crash to the point of affordability. Unless home prices crash 50% the average person isn't buying a house.

You can't just tell someone it'll go back down because it will never go back to what it was 5-10 years ago.

Watch house hunters, there are areas like sacremento and other shitty looking areas with houses in the 800-1.5 range for nothing special at all

A place like this isn’t crashing, not even with the lack of work etc.

For what it is worth:

Vancouver single-family home sales see weakest April in decades | CBC News

From my own observation in my neighbour (SE Vancouver), detached home sales are really, REALLY slow. Some houses have easily been in the market for 4 months now. Depending on their location, size, age, etc., they could range from anywhere between $1.4 - $2.2M. But the common theme seems to be -- they just aren't moving very much.

Townhouses seem to be slow moving as well. There are 4 townhouses nearby in the $1.1 - $1.2M range, and they have been easily sitting for 2+ months now. Open Houses on multiple weekends. I'm actually surprised the realtor has that much time to host the open houses week after week.

I don't think there will be a crash but the prices will decline with interest rates rising. If it takes 7 years for rates to get back to normal then prices will continue to decline for 7 years. A crash is a big drop over a short period of time. Canada has protections in place for that not to happen, you're going to get the same percentage drop but it's going to drag on and on for several years.

The other option is stagnation. Prices remain the same for a long time while waiting for inflation to catch up. The value of the house may not decline but the value of money certainly will.

those town homes priced at that range are stuck in no man's land. its not cheap enough for someone young to enter the market and its not worth while for existing families to upgrade if you need space (why not just pay a little extra for a detached).

if you think the value of money/paper (inflation) is going to catch up to real estate then you are out of your mind.

I just checked, and those asking prices are actually already 4 - 5% lower than the BC Assessment values. Still, the market dictates what the market price is, and I agree with you that if I were to buy, I'm gonna plop my $$$ down on a detached home even if it means I need to spend a little more.

I don't think that and it won't as long as the feds continue to raise rates to control inflation. It's just a possible scenario ala Japan

I listed my detached in East Vancouver last week. 4 offers came in after the FRIST weekend of open house; highest was 1.83m with inspection subject only, assessment was 1.69. I did not accept it because it did not meet my expected price.

My observation is that detached in this range is still quite desirable. (mine is a 2005 built on a 4070sqf land). And from the listings of 2-2.3m, I see them being sold fairly easy with little to no room to bargain.

Wow~! That is completely opposite to what I'm seeing in my area! Like I said, I'm in SE Van.

I just went to an open house over the weekend for a detached down my block in North Burnaby and it was pretty busy...probably 10 groups in just the 15minutes I was there. 4 days later and the sold sign was just put on. Not even brand new.

it was asking over assessed...too bad i dont know the sale price...messaged the realtor and he seems like an ass

Single family and townhomes are still moving quickly in the Riley Park area of East Van. Likely because of the strong amenity package it offers to young families.

I think the market is still ok in the sub 2M group.

Given the recent rise in condos, many people are upsizing. Given their income and their equity, sub 2M seems to be the sweet spot given the stress test.

Any house over the 2M mark, is a totally different story. Very few are able to obtain mortgage that big.

IMHO, unless there's change on the mortgage rules, we are at the end of the price increase as a whole.

With interest rate going higher and higher, the amount one can loan is going to be less and less.

We might see some temporary increases for people adjusting (up/downsizing), but the fact is that it's only a matter of time everything converges; meaning it simply doesn't make sense to pay more for B (say, a house in East Van) when A (house on west side) makes more sense.

Good, desirable houses are still going over list.

No one is paying s premium for the dumps people have lived in for 30 years and run into the ground

You’re talking about literally everything from the perspective of someone who already knows what happened. I know people and read articles from industry professionals in fucking 2006 who said the market had peaked... you’re totally taking for granted that you know what happened, if you were thinking the market would crash back then and waited you got doubled again since then.

I bought a prebuilt 2 bedroom in Richmond for $255,000 in 2003 and my dad thought I was a moron cuz I paid twice as much as he bought his whole house for in 1985... I sold it three years later for $370,000... 3 years! Now it’s probably worth $750+... so anyone waiting for a cool off in say, 2006 when it already went up 40% over 2003.... and then now it’s doubled again since then?

Gimme a break, people have to live, you can’t fault someone for when they buy in like they should have known or they should just rent for all eternity. Hindsight is 20/20 and again it’s so easy to say when you’re sitting watching it happen, not stuck trying to make it happen for yourself amidst all the chaos.

I refuse to sit here and gloat at people who are trying to live their lives the best they can, I’m just thankful I was able to buy when I did and that’s where it ends... I don’t know any better than anyone else, I was just the right age bracket. It’s easy for me to say I’d never buy a place in this market where it’s fucking ridiculous! $500k+ for a 1 bedroom and I know what I bought mine for... but if I didn’t have a place and desperate to establish roots???? Fuck yah I probably would, wouldn’t feel good about it, but what choice do you have besides moving somewhere else?

You sure about that?

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property...wMDAzWDZYOQ==/

1952 build
Assessed $2.76M
Sold Jan 2018 @ $3.57M

Coquitlam

Majority of the houses in this area are worth a fortune due to massive redevelopment allowed for in the OCP. All bout dat land value.

That is an anomaly only because they are allowing four plexes in that area. No actual POS house that somebody has shit kicked for 30 years but doesn’t have a change of zoning is selling for over assessed in that price bracket.

-Mark

Agreed that if we look back in hindsight, all of us would definitely have taken a different approach. E.g. I bought a one bedroom last year for $600K in Vancouver; a year prior, it was $150K less to purchase the same thing.....Looking back, regret why didn't buy year prior because I can't even gross $150K in a year, yet alone NET, shit like this happens. It's life, I've moved on.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/east-va...htly-1.3914316

Typical. City of complainers, yet I doubt blaring trains would make their property price fall.

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what's your asking and what's your expected?