I'd have to disagree with your above remarks. Ultimately it comes down to personal choice, and for myself, I'd much rather go with a little delayed gratification and be mortgage-free sooner rather than later. It also doesn't mean I have to completely deny myself of fun and enjoyment either. I obviously cannot afford to be lavish on anything, and it kind of goes without saying that I need to very carefully watch what I spend, and find ways to stretch the dollars.

Two of my engineering friends have both paid off their mortgages in what I'd consider record time. Granted, as engineers, they probably have a much healthier salary than I do. They bought in the early 2000's soon after graduating from university when prices were much, much lower, and it was townhouses instead of detached homes. They likely had help from their parents on the down payment, and one of them was paying off the mortgage together with his wife. But still, being able to pay off the remaining amount in a little over 10 years is nothing to sneeze at. And they did so without being complete Scrooges too.

I'd be happy if I can stay on track and pay the mortgage off in 20 instead of the 25 years that I signed up for.

I know much of the direction of this thread is negative towards the housing market.

I can understand and sympathize with this.

Most mention or hint that the market will correct itself.

So, I thought...

Just a quick and serious question for discussion:

When will the market correct itself?

By "correction", I mean 10%+ decrease in housing prices in Vancouver for 2 consecutive years.

What do you guys think?

What we think is irrelevant, fundamentals are out of whack, what we think means nothing.

Could be in 1 month, could be in 3 years... The actions of the home buying idiots in this country will be the force behind when

It could be irrelevant, but you guys made good points backed up with some articles and facts in regards to the market being too high.

I am just trying to find out what you guys think about the housing situation and what their opinions in regards to when it may correct itself.

It's a relevant topic to this discussion.

I think the best answer to your question is it is a total crap shoot.
There are too many factors. It would be like trying to guess when the big earthquake will hit and wipe out Vancouver since scientist have been talking about it for so long.

We can all agree, ***WHEN*** interest rates increase, there will be some people who will have to pay more per month on their variable rate mortgages.
I don't know the exact number, but I am assuming a lot of people are on variable rate mortgages, and even if they aren't, their rates will go up when they go to renew.

Another variable is how many more buildings will be built. If you look around town, you will see many projects started and many more that has yet to break ground. 2 things come to my mind. In the next few years, how many more projects will be started? At what point will there be a slow down in construction? Once they stop building, will there be a lot of people who suddenly become unemployed. And how will the market react to this increase in supply for housing. Toronto is in a very similar situation as us as they have a lot of construction going on too.
Everywhere you look, you can see construction going on.

Another variable is what is happening in other parts of the world. Right now, there is a lot of economic turmoil and how will it affect Canada when the rest of the world goes to shits?

I'm sure there are a bunch of other reasons that can potentially affect the market, and then again maybe the market won't correct itself. But does it really matter if you plan on buying a place to live in for the next 10+ years?

I'm on the same boat, I rather have my mortgage paid off sooner, but at the same time with mortgage rates soo low, I can get better returns on the market than my mortgage rate, so there's no incentive for me to pay it down first right now.and yes, one doesnt need to spend lots of money to have fun and be entertained etc.

you mentioned your friends bought it in the early 2000's, and that they make much more than the median income$, when housing cost 1/3 as it did now. Imagine the average person trying this now in 2013, with half a million dollar + mortgage. It'd say it's much more difficult to pay off your mortgage in 15-20 years.

Don't underestimate the political sensitivity of people working for the Bank of Canada. I'm sure the pressure to keep interest rates lower than they should be is pretty great.

I think the idea that people should be punished for their bad decisions has a lot of merit, but what do you do when millions could be affected? I'm not just talking about people who have bought houses, but people whose lives depend on RE? It's easy to call people idiots, but if you had to make decisions that were not in a vacuum, what would you do? It's why decision-makers in the States and elsewhere propped up banks.
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A lot of people refer to the large number of condos being built in greater vancouver and toronto as over building however you really have to compare that to the number of new single family homes (not tear downs, but net new houses) being builtt which is declining. So if you factor in population growth the real estate market is absorbing these units.

Back in 2005 to 2008, the news papers were saying the same thing about all the construction and new developments prior to the olympics. If you check now all those units were absorbed by the market. vacancy rates are still quite low and rents are still high.

I know someone who's still waiting to get in the market hoping for a major correction. If you have the money just jump in if its your primary residence. If your looking for investment you can be more cautious and look for deals or wait for small dip (and there have been a few since 2009). I bought my first place in 07, sold it last fall and got back into the market this spring. It was a bit slow then and I got deal on my place.

This China money is going to keep coming which gives our market healthy bump.

You are telling me the 50,000 condo units that are completing next year in Toronto support the fundamentals?:suspicious:

GTA gets around 100k net migration every year (on average since the 90s IIRC). Last year? about 60% of that average... this year is forecasted not a hell lot better than last year.

So, let's assume we have net 70k migration to GTA for 2013. It would take almost EVERY SINGLE one of them buying one of the 500k shoeboxes just to absorb that.

How many of the 70k immigrant (either domestic or international) to GTA are able to afford that? And that's just condos...

Building too many condos like that leads to a lot of absentee investors, which leads to tenants, which leads to ghettos which lead to clayton heights.

Not that it matters, but my opinion is this: bearish, expecting market to correct minus% 5 to minus 15% in the next 3 years.

Anyone thinking to buy really needs to consider this - do you REALLY think that housing will appreciate over the next 5 years? Do you truly believe that you can buy a home, and expect it to appreciate 10-30% a year like it did in the last few years?

Most people would agree that housing would most likely be going down, or staying flat for the foreseeable future. the only guys saying that RE will go up are real estate agents and developers. So why buy something that is only going to lose value? If it stays flat? you're incurring huge carrying expenses like home maintenance, mortgage costs, property taxes, transaction and legal costs. etc. The old notion that land always go up is BULLSHIT! look at other countries that had rrapid increases in RE prices.

the alternative is not buying and renting, which is relatively cheap and is relatively low-risk compared to buying. it seems like a no-brainer to me.

The towers on King George. I can't remember the names of them..across from Best Buy.

It's a shit hole. I painted a place when it was new, and I walked in thinking it looked pretty nice. Then about a year later I was painting another place and the building looked 10 years older. Signs in the elevator about not smoking pot in your place, and on one trip up there was a puddle of dog pee. The halls were all banged up from people moving in and out. I was there to clean up after a tenant destroyed the place, in turn, they rented it to a whore. An actual, "I have sex with men for money" whore. She apparently just bounced from apartment to apartment in the building.

I sat a tool box down and it was gone after 5 minutes.

So I'll tell you, if that's the joys of home ownership, count me out.

Double Post Delete please

Clayton Heights is a ghetto? Maybe our definition of ghetto's differ but I have to disagree and I'll admit I'm bias cause I live in Clayton. New houses and schools, lots of parks, tons of young families, safe to walk day or night sounds like a horrible place to live.

Whalley is a Ghetto, downtown east side (edited) is a ghetto, the Clayton area is anything but a ghetto IMO.

Edited: I meant downtown eastside.

... East Van is hardly a ghetto.

East Van is a ghetto?

The DT East Side is a ghetto, but East Van is a decent area.

Why do you see it as a ghetto?

Too many hipsters?

I meant downtown east side, that's my bad. East Vancouver is not a ghetto.

Real estate developers and agents are the new car dealerships and salesmen.

If downtown Eastside is a ghetto, then Vancouver must be the most expensive ghetto in the world.....new condos in the downtown Eastside are $350K and up for 1 bedrooms apts.

i live in da hood! east van wat waaaat!! :lol

Downtown Eastside is the new Yaletown. Most people don't remember Yaletown when it was a dump.

Yes but Hastings from like cambie to main are filled with druggies and not somewhere people would particularly feel safe at night, perhaps even the day

Glad you changed it from e van :p
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Surprised nobody posted this.
Bank of Canada ends rate hike warning, cuts growth outlook - Business - CBC News

Looks like fundamentals will have to wait. :(

rates gonna be low for the foreseeable future. it looks like all the people who rushed to lock-in mortgage rates during the summer panicked for nothing. these is no way BoC will hike rates before U.S. Fed as that will tip us back into recession.

maybe it's me, but I kinda like the edginess of the Downtown eastside. When you go out, it nice to be somewhere different than Yaletown or Granville.....definitely has grit and character.

I never feel usnsafe on the downtown eastside though