Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[westopher]

EXACTLY.
It’s always just “work harder” until it’s then that has to work harder. Then it becomes some fucking elaborate scheme by the government and society to take what they “earned.”

[68style]

Originally Posted by westopher

If you live in your home, you don’t lose a penny.
If you bought before the market exploded you lost 10% on your 40% gain.
The only people who are really going to suffer from this is speculators, people with multiple properties, etc. No one who lives in a single home “loses” money when the market slumps. If you sell your home to move into the same market you actually can upgrade for cheaper

Great, your logic is sound for those scenarios, but I plan to sell to move to another market... so I've lost 10-15% for no actual benefit to anyone.

It's like the worst of both worlds here for the actual residents... it's way overpriced for what it should be income level wise... you worked your ass off to get in at some point against an unstoppable enemy in foreign investment to grab a place... and now you want to leave and you get dinged again suddenly while nothing was actually made any more affordable to any group of significance. Yah I realize it's complaining about how much profit margin not whether there is a profit margin, but it's still lame when the playing field keeps changing underneath you for no good reason. Our system is set up up such that it's always an advantage to be an outsider who doesn't actually reside here and that's wrong.

FYI I'm not complaining that my home price isn't skyrocketing, just that it didn't stay the same... which in my humble opinion (no crystal ball) it would have if not for these half-assed interventions. If the market itself dictated the drop, no problem that's just how she goes, but the government meddling too much in something to pander to special interest groups is one thing I'm not very "liberal minded" on.

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by 68style

Great, your logic is sound for those scenarios, but I plan to sell to move to another market... so I've lost 10-15% for no actual benefit to anyone.

It's like the worst of both worlds here for the actual residents... it's way overpriced for what it should be income level wise... and now you want to leave ding you again while not actually making it any more affordable.

What did you actually lose though? How much has your place gone up since you bought it? If you bought for 500k, had it go up to 800k, and now it's worth 740k do you feel like you've made 240k or lost 60k?

[Hondaracer]

In his scenario you lost that built equity you could have used to substantially upgrade in a different market due to govt. intervention.

Look at a place like Penticton. Guaranteed home prices have seen minuscule gains there compared to the lower mainland. Losing that additional 100-300k in 10-20% swings could be massive in terms of what you get in a different market.

For me I’d say I “lost” potentially 300k in equity from 2016 to today and that’s with us puting in 100k or so in renovations over that same time period. I feel the same as weatopher though I live in my house, I enjoy my neighborhood, I never dwell for too long on what could have been etc. I’m fortunate to be in my situation however it just speaks to the market when I couldn’t even recoup my personal investment and sweat equity caused by market swings due to govt. intervention.

That’s without even bringing up the federal stress tests which are further pricing people out of a market they barely squeezed into before

If you’re in the market, climb climb climb!

If you’re out of the market, crash, crash, crash!

If anything at least with the market slowing that sentiment of essentially saying if you’re not in this boat or that boat I hope you get fucked has quieted some.

[spacemanrick]

Tying this into a car discussion I remember when I bought my car a few years ago and the 25 year old car salesman told me I was foolish to buy my car and that I should instead lease and use the money to put a deposit on a pre-sale condo. He told me I could easily earn at least 10% per year and then sell the condo in a few years when the lease comes up. I guess he was too young or too optimistic to ever expect real estate prices could ever go down in Vancouver.

There has just been way too much speculation, property flipping, foreign money, and money laundering that has driven property prices out of reach for normal every day Canadians. Of course the corrupt Liberals did absolutely nothing to stop this because they and their supporters were making too much money from runaway prices. Because there was no government intervention until last year property prices were artificially inflated by 15% to 25% so a corresponding drop is normal and healthy for long term stability.

[68style]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

What did you actually lose though? How much has your place gone up since you bought it? If you bought for 500k, had it go up to 800k, and now it's worth 740k do you feel like you've made 240k or lost 60k?

I updated my post between the time you read it and quoted it. I'm not unappreciative of what I have, I'm annoyed that the government decided to jump in, extremely uselessly, about 20 years after they should have.

Where were they in 2000 when prices first started climbing? Lining their pockets with developers and letting this place turn into the cesspool of collusion and racketeering that it's become.

[westopher]

In that case why are you mad at the current government for intervening when it was the prior government that was happily fucking the whole province for their own financial benefit? I am pretty happy someone finally had the balls to do something, late or not. Things dropped, not drastically, so no one is getting absolutely ravaged by a housing market crash, so it seems like they are doing it quite effectively.

[Acurapinoy]

If you are selling now to buy another.... just think of it as you had to sell cheaper but you also bought a little cheaper as well..

[MarkyMark]

The thing is prices going up 30-50% in that short of a time span should have never happened in the first place. You already won the lottery if you had property during that time. So now that things are slowly going in the other direction people can't fathom it? You're still benefitting from what happened, the rest is just greed from what you thought would never end. Perhaps you believed everyone here saying Vancouver is different because we have mountains and shit.

The funny part is if you sold your place and moved out of town and found out your place doubled in price again since you sold it that would piss you off as well.

[68style]

Okay whiter knights than I, sorry for expressing my displeasure.

If something had been made affordable... yay... but I disagree westopher, this particular government enforced drop was, for all intents and purposes, totally ineffectual at accomplishing that task. It helped nobody (show me anyone who said "Hey I can't afford a 1 bedroom at $530,000, but I can at $480,000!) and just cut some margin off of a few people who couldn't unload as fast as our friends offshore when the news came.

Nevermind the fact that anyone who did suddenly think they could afford something 10% cheaper got cut off at the knees by the subsequent stress test revamps.... so......... ?

[68style]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

The funny part is if you sold your place and moved out of town and found out your place doubled in price again since you sold it that would piss you off as well.

Sure! Why not? But that's more of a "D'oh! Bad timing!" and my own choice, not the government meddling for no appreciable reason.

Personal insults about "my greed never ending" were addressed in a previous post where I think prices were just going to flatline for a number of years prior to the NDP's intervention. You're trying really hard to turn me into some kind of rich asshole that I'm not, I'm just a normal guy trying to maximize what little I have in this world and unhappy about the government coming in and cutting into it without, so far as I can tell, any benefit to my fellow Vancouverites.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by 68style

Okay whiter knights than I, sorry for expressing my displeasure.

If something had been made affordable... yay... but I disagree westopher, this particular government enforced drop was, for all intents and purposes, totally ineffectual at accomplishing that task. It helped nobody (show me anyone who said "Hey I can't afford a 1 bedroom at $530,000, but I can at $480,000!) and just cut some margin off of a few people who couldn't unload as fast as our friends offshore when the news came.

Nevermind the fact that anyone who did suddenly think they could afford something 10% cheaper got cut off at the knees by the subsequent stress test revamps.... so......... ?

I’m not trying to be a white knight. It’s just a perfect example of, “if it doesn’t benefit me, it doesn’t benefit anyone” mentality that runs so rampant. I get it, we have to take care of ourselves, but your belief that a 50k drop effects poor homeowners while it doesn’t nothing positive for those trying to get I to the markets is irrational at best.
If 50k doesn’t make a difference to a young person trying to get into the market, it shouldn’t make a difference to someone getting out. It’s not one or the other.
I don’t think your an asshole, our interactions on here make me think anything but. However I’m discussing with you that I do think your stance on this is totally unreasonable based on emotions and not on logic.

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by 68style

Sure! Why not? But that's more of a "D'oh! Bad timing!" and my own choice, not the government meddling for no appreciable reason.

Personal insults about "my greed never ending" were addressed in a previous post where I think prices were just going to flatline for a number of years prior to the NDP's intervention. You're trying really hard to turn me into some kind of rich asshole that I'm not, just a normal guy trying to maximize what little I have in this world and unhappy about the government coming in and cutting into it.

Nothing stopped you from selling at the height of it all, you just had a "D'oh! moment" and waited too long.

You're basically saying you're cool with the government selling us out as long as it benefits you. I have a place as well so prices going up would benefit me too, but I'm not nearly as upset as some people seem to be.

[SkunkWorks]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

You actually earn it coz pay more property tax coz the house value went up. Now the market is down will property tax decrease as well? It should be we know it won't happen.

Is about getting more credit available to you when you need it.

Wat. You realize property tax is a percentage of your assessed value... Right?

So to answer your question, property taxes go down when the market value goes down.

But hey what do I know, my parents should've took your advice and had me 10 years earlier.

[Mr.HappySilp]

^^ true but the city also vote to increase property tax at the same time so your tax is still higher than last year even though the assessed value is down. I believe City on Van have voted to increase property tax by 4 or 5% same with City of Coq.

[68style]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

Nothing stopped you from selling at the height of it all, you just had a "D'oh! moment" and waited too long.

You're basically saying you're cool with the government selling us out as long as it benefits you. I have a place as well so prices going up would benefit me too, but I'm not nearly as upset as some people seem to be.

Not really, I just think what they did do didn’t help hardly anybody but it did detract from a lot. I said I’m happy if someone got obviously assisted. I’m a community guy at the end of the day, what’s left of it in the lower mainland anyway.

I agree with westopher it can’t work both ways, I just disagree that this drop actually assisted any young people getting into the market in Vancouver proper (mostly due to mortgage stress tests being tightened at the same time).

We’ll see what happens I guess.

[68style]

I mean, Mark you’re acting like I’m ridiculous here but where’s your community cutoff? Are you ok at 30% drop? 60%? 80%? Your mortgage remaining is more than the value of your home and you can’t renew anymore but everyone else can buy a place? Are you still singing the exact same tune about community?

Extreme? Yes... but just the reverse side of the same argument. You just don’t think it will ever get “that bad” same as I thought prices wouldn’t drop for awhile.

At some point yes you do have to look out for yourself.

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by 68style

I mean, Mark you’re acting like I’m ridiculous here but where’s your community cutoff? Are you ok at 30% drop? 60%? 80%? Your mortgage remaining is more than the value of your home and you can’t renew anymore but everyone else can buy a place? Are you still singing the exact same tune about community?

Extreme? Yes... but just the reverse side of the same argument. You just don’t think it will ever get “that bad” same as I thought prices wouldn’t drop for awhile.

At some point yes you do have to look out for yourself.

My posts are strictly aiming at the people who bought before everything blew up and are now complaining about it. I actually feel bad for people who bought at the height of it all and are probably a little underwater right now.

Getting upset because your place went to unheard of heights and now it's dipping down a little bit just sounds ridiculous to me. No one should have to lose their ass on a house due to government intervention, but if your 300k profit turned into 200k you're going to have a hard time getting sympathy from me.

[spacemanrick]

Originally Posted by 68style

I mean, Mark you’re acting like I’m ridiculous here but where’s your community cutoff? Are you ok at 30% drop? 60%? 80%? Your mortgage remaining is more than the value of your home and you can’t renew anymore but everyone else can buy a place? Are you still singing the exact same tune about community?

Extreme? Yes... but just the reverse side of the same argument. You just don’t think it will ever get “that bad” same as I thought prices wouldn’t drop for awhile.

At some point yes you do have to look out for yourself.

Prices will never drop 60% to 80% in Vancouver because there is an inherent value to housing in Vancouver largely based on the difference in cost between renting and buying a house or apartment. There is a price premium on top of that because Vancouver is a desirable city to live in Canada and also for people around the world.

Having said that do you think it is reasonable that a condo that rents for $3,000 a month costs $1,000,000 to purchase? After property tax and maintenance and assuming a healthy 25% down the owner is losing about $1,000 per month but is willing to absorb that on the assumption and gamble that prices only go up. Take the speculation of price increases (and parking of foreign money) out of the equation and the price should stabilize to reflect a cash flow value with a reasonable amount of price appreciation of 3% to 4% per year and price premium to live in Vancouver.

[twitchyzero]

we need to get 4444 back in here along with Taylor whatever (the guy with the two-tone C230 Kompressor)

where was the gov't 15 years ago when prices starting trending up with momentum?

eh hello, Liberals were in power for 15 years

so the timing sucks to get out of this market, well the timing sucked for everyone else for decades...damned if you do damned if you don't for the politicians

[68style]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

My posts are strictly aiming at the people who bought before everything blew up and are now complaining about it. I actually feel bad for people who bought at the height of it all and are probably a little underwater right now.

Getting upset because your place went to unheard of heights and now it's dipping down a little bit just sounds ridiculous to me. No one should have to lose their ass on a house due to government intervention, but if your 300k profit turned into 200k you're going to have a hard time getting sympathy from me.

Originally Posted by spacemanrick

Prices will never drop 60% to 80% in Vancouver because there is an inherent value to housing in Vancouver largely based on the difference in cost between renting and buying a house or apartment. There is a price premium on top of that because Vancouver is a desirable city to live in Canada and also for people around the world.

Well come on now Mark, you said I can't have it both ways so why do you get to have it both ways? You feel sorry for people who bought at the height and are now underwater.... you don't feel sorry for people who still have X amount of margin whatever your version of X is? How do you know when I bought my place and what my margin is? I don't recall saying? Why do you get to decide where the line is drawn? I respect you, I think you're a good guy with great ideals, but I don't think it's fair that you get to decide who goes to heaven and who goes to hell in the real estate market.

As for Rick, I pray for all of us you are correct sir... but MANY people said back in 2003 when prices were already 50% higher than they were 3 years earlier (I bought a prebuild in 2000 for $254 and sold it for $368 3 years of living in it later just for reference of numbers)... did anyone back then say "Prices will be double what they are right now by 2018"? Hell fucking no, everyone would have said you were crazy... but that same unit I sold for $368 back then would be worth $700+ in 2018 now... in fact, when I sold that particular place every major media outlet said the market was about to crash. Hindsight is always 20/20, you have no idea what can happen. It's unlikely they'll drop that much, but hey if every speculator on the market suddenly put their unit up for sale I think we'd have a pretty big problem on our hands. Don't be so sure that the "reputation" of what is actually a pretty insignificant city in the grand scheme of things can do for pricing if a perfect storm of investor pull-out and economic factors hit.

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by 68style

Well come on now Mark, you said I can't have it both ways so why do you get to have it both ways? You feel sorry for people who bought at the height and are now underwater.... you don't feel sorry for people who still have X amount of margin whatever your version of X is? How do you know when I bought my place and what my margin is? I don't recall saying? Why do you get to decide where the line is drawn? I respect you, I think you're a good guy with great ideals, but I don't think it's fair that you get to decide who goes to heaven and who goes to hell in the real estate market.

One persons house doubles in price in the span of a few years by doing absolutely nothing but being lucky they bought when they did. The next person buys at a price they are barely comfortable with because they are afraid after years of the government fucking them over this is their last chance to get in the market before they are priced out forever. The ONLY difference between these two people is timing. Fuck no I'm not concerned about the first guy. The line is drawn where anyone that makes a decent wage should afford a place to live, not keep catering to the people who already reaped the benefits of ownership.

You're right, I don't know anything about your situation and you're welcome to say when you bought and how much you've made since buying, but judging by your posts you're probably getting out ahead, just not as well as if you sold a year ago.

[Tapioca]

The thing is that people making decent wages can afford to buy a roof over their head.

A two bedroom condo in suburbia is the new starter home for a family in the Lower Mainland.

If you grew up in a 4000 square foot home in suburbia, I can see it being hard to come to terms with that, particularly, if you're just an average person with an average partner making an average salary.

[quasi]

The prices aren't really that big of a concern if you're in the market IMO. My house has dropped 10% in a year, moving in the same area so has every other house. It's actually a benefit really, I'm looking at upgrading so even if our houses dropped the same percentage I'm actually saving money from the prices going down.

The tough part now is getting a solid offer that isn't contingent on the sale of someone else's home. It seems like that's the offer most people want to put out there right now, I refuse to make an offer like that at this point because I lose all leverage in negotiating.

Even though I have a signed offer on my house right now I doubt it goes through, I'm so reliant on the other people selling their home we're trying to get as many people through as possible in the hopes of getting an offer with no contingency to sale. Week 2 for me, had a showing Thursday, 2 yesterday, 1 tonight.......

[spacemanrick]

Originally Posted by spacemanrick

Prices will never drop 60% to 80% in Vancouver because there is an inherent value to housing in Vancouver largely based on the difference in cost between renting and buying a house or apartment. There is a price premium on top of that because Vancouver is a desirable city to live in Canada and also for people around the world.

Having said that do you think it is reasonable that a condo that rents for $3,000 a month costs $1,000,000 to purchase? After property tax and maintenance and assuming a healthy 25% down the owner is losing about $1,000 per month but is willing to absorb that on the assumption and gamble that prices only go up. Take the speculation of price increases (and parking of foreign money) out of the equation and the price should stabilize to reflect a cash flow value with a reasonable amount of price appreciation of 3% to 4% per year and price premium to live in Vancouver.

Here is a perfect example of rental income cash flow analysis for an owner not matching the current price of a property. This 1,440 apartment in Coal Harbor at the Cascina on the 22nd floor is currently available to be rented out out at only $5,000 per month. The same 1,440 square foot apartment is for sale on a lower floor (15th floor) for $2,888,888 and is assessed at $2,935,000!

The $5,000 monthly rental income would only cover the mortgage payment on a $1,000,000 mortgage. What about the other $2,000,000 required to buy the property? What about the strata fees that are a whopping $1,008 per month? What about the $600 in property tax per month? Take out the rampant speculation, foreign money being dumped here, and money laundering ...then either rental income has to go up a lot or the price has to come down on the property.

https://vancouver.craigslist.org/van...850923798.html