Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[sonick]

I'm sure if it's a regular occurrence then it's definitely something to be frustrated with.

Just last night at around 10pm there was a fried/greasy smell coming from my balcony from a neighboring unit, so much that I had to close my balcony door to avoid it from lingering in my bedroom before bedtime.

Luckily for me this isn't a regular thing. Less regular than the smell of weed at least.

[JKam]

I hate those jerks that make the whole area smell like their food. I get so damn hungry.

[dinosaur]

Originally Posted by sonick

Less regular than the smell of weed at least.

Well, I guess that is the thing that threw me off....

Like, if we are picking smells here...cooking smells are the least of my concern.

-garbage
-cigarettes
-pot
-farms
-that fish plant in surrey
-sewage treatment plant under the AF bridge
-sulfur mountain
etc, etc...

Give me 6pm curry any day.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Lord Disick

I was looking at units in south Surrey and Langley, some really good deals out there but I don't see much of a rentals market and I don't see values of the units going up anytime soon because there's such a supply of units available.

Do I even need to point out your blatant contradiction?

Such good deals because:
No rental market
Value won't go up, too much supply

Sometimes ppl can't see the shit on their knees

[westopher]

I've been looking at some great places but haven't bought them because they are terrible!!!
Sums up about 20 posts.

[Gridlock]

That place on Marine is horrible. If you can drive along Marine and smell the garbage, then what makes people think that living there will be better.

oh! I know! No one thought about that. AND the transfer station is run by the City of Vancouver, so we'll have them move it at taxpayer expense.

You wait.

Coming to theatre's summer of 2014: Site Club.

The first rule of Site Club is you always talk about Site Club.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by sonick

FWIW: Goldman Sachs warns on 'large correction' in Canada housing

Canadian bubble goes mainstream by Leith van Onselen

Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest: Macleans Magazine makes the housing bubble - and looming crash - front and centre






Man, they've been saying there's going to be a crash for the longest time. There seems to be a group (usually the media, and realtors, developers, mortgage brokers etc) that always pump up real estate, saying there wont be a crash or correction. They have a vested interrest in Real estate. Look at 24, metro , theprovince, etc. most of the ads in those newspapers are for Real estate or condo developments.

There's also another group who want RE to tank for their own person reasons, either they want houses to drop so they can buy a home themselves, or they want to punish greedy speculators, or they want to create headlines or spark fear by spreading all this CRASH and BUBBLE talk.

Now, my personal opinion is still bearish. But I truly don't think the market is going to "crash" or "pop" - say 40-60% like the states and some other countries. I think the people that are waiting for the market to crash will just be disappointed, or might end up waiting a very very long time.

While I still think buying Real estate at TODAY's prices is a very bad idea, and that historically people think a "soft landing" never happens. I just think that there are factors that will always keep prices in vancouver and area relatively high for the foreseeable future.

--> low interest rates are hear to stay, we are at record low interest rates, no one expects interest rates to go up to the 8-10% historical averages anytime soon.

--> too many house horny people out here in Vancouver. I feel there's a culture in vancouver where everyone wants to own their home for some reason, what's wrong with renting? this housing thirst is not gonna stop anytime soon. it's like if it's a crime to rent. it's become too much of a social status or something. until this mindset changes, people will always buy, so if the market goes down 15%, I can see many people trying to buy again, which will prop it back up. which is why I think the market will only correct instead of crash.

--> foreign money, anyone that works directly in the industry knows about it, there's soo much from china. if you work for developers, land titles, property lawyers, real estate agents, you see it directly, I see it directly, you cant deny it. developers cater and bend over backwards for the chinese now: no number 4s in unit numbers, no 4th, 14th,24th,34th floors, chinese brochures.
now how much of an impact they have on the market is still debatable, but it's no question they are a substantial part of the real estate market in vancouver.

--> expensive housing doesn't matter to boomers or people that bought 10-15 years + ago. if I own a house that's worth $1 million, and I want to sell and buy a nicer home in a nicer location, where the cost is $1.3 million, I only care about the incremental cost, which is $300K, 300K is not a lot of money relatively. This is why you see soo many people selling their 1 million dollar house and upgrading to a 1.2 or 1.3 million dollar house. the only concerns are new or younger buyers who cant afford to save up for the down payment to buy the $1 million dollar house.


realistically I can only see 3 things happening that will cause a crash :
1. major catastrophic event like an earthquake,
2. a deep recession or
3. something happening with interest rates that it to goes up dramatically.

anyways, I feel like im going on longer than needed so I'll stop here.

[Carl Johnson]

Or something like demographics which the boomers will be selling their houses to cash in and young people who've just graduated don't plan to stay in Vancouver as cost of living is too high compare to rest of canada and states. Vancouver has been having a pretty insane population growth in recent years if that slows down it might drive RE sales and prices lower as well.

I for one don't really give a shit about main street media (MSM) as they are really contrarian indicators for me. few years back MSM said don't touch US real estate as everything still going to crash further and look what has happened. at the end of the day you have to get the odds in your favor and the only safe way to that in real estate is buy cheap.

[Ludepower]

Thanks eatclams for contributing a calming opinion into this dooms day thread.
My opinion...I see a dip in prices but no crash. Real estate will always go up.
You either have above average career to afford it...born/marry rich...or move.

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by Ludepower

Thanks eatclams for contributing a calming opinion into this dooms day thread.
My opinion...I see a dip in prices but no crash. Real estate will always go up.
You either have above average career to afford it...born/marry rich...or move.

kiss of death

[4444]

Originally Posted by Ludepower

. Real estate will always go up.

It does?

Who told you that, a realtor or someone who just bought a place - either way, someone with a vested interest in it being true!

Real estate has historically increased with inflation or slightly better in the long run over the last 50 years - a happy coincidence is that interest rates have also been decreasing year on year In the long run too, as well as amortization periods going up, and the introduction of government backed mortgages... I have to say, the amount of tricks the government can use to further goose the market is running out, in fact, ours is trying to reel it in.

What's sad is that mark carney, king easy money for real estate for Canada, now the Bank of England head, is starting to do the same In England, he's introducing the same policies to make it easier for lower income people to buy. This, to me, proves that carney is not smart, but lucky, to be in his position, England's real estate is already high, generally (though outside London is a lot lower than it was in 07/08), within 3 years it will get really bad again, not sure how this will affect London's market, as London really is just a place for short term speculation/ a place for dodgy rich folk to park their money away from the scrutiny of their home government, but either way, I'm telling you now, this won't end well.

I'm just glad I have a small amount of exposure through real estate in England bought after the crash, but still that investment hasn't been great, but thanks to carney it will bubble up and make it way more attractive.

Though the uk's economy is improving, these above inflation moves in real estate will be all down to carneys policies - exactly what happened in Canada, and we're now reversing them slowly, when interst rates and/or unemployment start rising, that will be the catalyst for a big change in prices for the negative

[Ludepower]

Thanks 4444 for being this threads moderator...anyone who doesn't agreee with your dooms day theory gets a fail.

Im not as technical as you but what I meant from an average joes eye...real estate goes up due to inflation. If you're saying these homes will never be as expensive as today prices ever again. Then my comment is true.
FYI. Im a huge fan or yours and hope your predictions are true in the very near future...but I aint going to wait forever. Whatever happens...happens.

[adambomb]

Originally Posted by Ludepower

Thanks 4444 for being this threads moderator...anyone who doesn't agreee with your dooms day theory gets a fail.

Sums up about 20 posts.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Ludepower

Thanks 4444 for being this threads moderator...anyone who doesn't agreee with your dooms day theory gets a fail.

Im not as technical as you but what I meant from an average joes eye...real estate goes up due to inflation. If you're saying these homes will never be as expensive as today prices ever again. Then my comment is true.
FYI. Im a huge fan or yours and hope your predictions are true in the very near future...but I aint going to wait forever. Whatever happens...happens.

The reason I failed u is because you made a blanket comment that real estate always goes up. Had you backed that up with some legitimate thought, I'd have left well alone or questioned the accuracy of your assumptions as part of a mature discussion. I'm not trying to say "my way or the highway" but I am saying that those that make blanket statements without any thought or support deserve to be ridiculed. I work in a professional business environment, if I went to my boss, the vp finance of one of Canada's largest companies and said something which I had no idea if it were true or not, and had no way of supporting my hypothesis, I'd expect my ear to be chewed off, so maybe I'm giving u one hell of a lesson here.

So, back to your blanket statement, yes, over the long term real estate goes up, in absolute terms. It goes up with inflation, let's say it approximates inflation, 2.5 or 3% long term thus your real price stays the same, so if you bought a house and then sold it at 2.5/3% growth, you will have made $0 above inflation.

Graphs > Nationwide average house prices adjusted for inflation - HousePriceCrash.co.uk

This graph, which I just got off the web, so I'm not saying its perfect or accurate, but it fits with my expectations, and that is that uk real estate has grown at 2.9% p.a. Since the 70's, or basically with inflation.

How do you make loads of money in real estate? Easy, buy low, sell high. Buy when the price is below the red line, and sell when it's above the red line (right now in Canada, we are above the red line, so sell,) - you will make money in real terms.

Or, rent the place out, assuming you bought along the red line, and you are cash flow neutral (impossible in Canada to do over ther 25 amort period, as interest rates will go up causing your mortgage payments to go up way faster than the increase in rents), you will gain, in real terms, the amount of your mortgage which will be paid off by your tenants, the house will increase with inflation, thus making $0 real on its own.

So, if you want, you can all start to make little quips about how you all think you're so funny and that I'm just some grumpy person who can't take people who don't share my opinion, but the reality of it is, is that I want a good conversation, I want ppl coming in here providing the other side to the arguement, giving facts, figures that genuinely support the 'other' side - blanket statements like "real estate always goes up" is true, In a sense, but if you went out today and bought a place on that basis alone, you would be making one hell of a bad decision.

[4444]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

Canadian bubble goes mainstream by Leith van Onselen

Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest: Macleans Magazine makes the housing bubble - and looming crash - front and centre






Man, they've been saying there's going to be a crash for the longest time. There seems to be a group (usually the media, and realtors, developers, mortgage brokers etc) that always pump up real estate, saying there wont be a crash or correction. They have a vested interrest in Real estate. Look at 24, metro , theprovince, etc. most of the ads in those newspapers are for Real estate or condo developments.

There's also another group who want RE to tank for their own person reasons, either they want houses to drop so they can buy a home themselves, or they want to punish greedy speculators, or they want to create headlines or spark fear by spreading all this CRASH and BUBBLE talk.

Now, my personal opinion is still bearish. But I truly don't think the market is going to "crash" or "pop" - say 40-60% like the states and some other countries. I think the people that are waiting for the market to crash will just be disappointed, or might end up waiting a very very long time.

While I still think buying Real estate at TODAY's prices is a very bad idea, and that historically people think a "soft landing" never happens. I just think that there are factors that will always keep prices in vancouver and area relatively high for the foreseeable future.

--> low interest rates are hear to stay, we are at record low interest rates, no one expects interest rates to go up to the 8-10% historical averages anytime soon.

--> too many house horny people out here in Vancouver. I feel there's a culture in vancouver where everyone wants to own their home for some reason, what's wrong with renting? this housing thirst is not gonna stop anytime soon. it's like if it's a crime to rent. it's become too much of a social status or something. until this mindset changes, people will always buy, so if the market goes down 15%, I can see many people trying to buy again, which will prop it back up. which is why I think the market will only correct instead of crash.

--> foreign money, anyone that works directly in the industry knows about it, there's soo much from china. if you work for developers, land titles, property lawyers, real estate agents, you see it directly, I see it directly, you cant deny it. developers cater and bend over backwards for the chinese now: no number 4s in unit numbers, no 4th, 14th,24th,34th floors, chinese brochures.
now how much of an impact they have on the market is still debatable, but it's no question they are a substantial part of the real estate market in vancouver.

--> expensive housing doesn't matter to boomers or people that bought 10-15 years + ago. if I own a house that's worth $1 million, and I want to sell and buy a nicer home in a nicer location, where the cost is $1.3 million, I only care about the incremental cost, which is $300K, 300K is not a lot of money relatively. This is why you see soo many people selling their 1 million dollar house and upgrading to a 1.2 or 1.3 million dollar house. the only concerns are new or younger buyers who cant afford to save up for the down payment to buy the $1 million dollar house.


realistically I can only see 3 things happening that will cause a crash :
1. major catastrophic event like an earthquake,
2. a deep recession or
3. something happening with interest rates that it to goes up dramatically.

anyways, I feel like im going on longer than needed so I'll stop here.

To play devils advocate, have you considered these rebuttals to your points:

We don't need 8-10% interest rates to kill real estate, a 0.5% rise would wipe out so much affordability that it would have a material impact on the market. Rates will rise, to what level, we don't know, but the even more worrying thing is that now we're talking of rates, for this year, not going up, all bc our Canadian economy is stinking up the joint, just as the US and Europe are starting to grow... We weathered the storm, but maybe we actually just pushed the can down the road? I am really worried about the Canadian economy, and if unemployment, which is already high, grows, that will have a material effect on sentiment and prices.


Vancouver is nice, it will always demand a premium over Calgary, and most cities in Canada, totally agree. But you speak as though ppl have always been house horny. Not sure how old you are, but I'm just out of my 20's and can remember back 10-15 years ago, and trust me, back then people were not house horny at all, prices were so much more affordable, look at a graph of prices, high prices in Canada and Vancouver are a recent phenomenon and you cannot even say its bc of the recent influx of Chinese, in the mid 90's Vancouver became hongkover coinciding with the impending handover of hk to china, so we've always had a large base of rich immigrants from Asia. Vancouver, and Canada, will become u horny again, exactly as the US did, super horny in the 2000's, super unhorny from 2008-2012, now, the US house horny is back! Well, until rates go up (the effect of the May/June 30 year price spike was significant in the states, the 30 year has gone back down with taper being pushed back - but also the US is economically stronger than Canada right now, so there is a lot going against the Canada housing case.

As for Chinese buyers, most are immigrant residents, so that falls within our immigration policy, which only just keeps us ticking - I'd say it's the only thing (immigration) that stops a complete melt down.

Just my thoughts, would love some in return

[UFO]

4444, I'm curious how long you have been bearish on the local market for.

Observers have been calling for a market correction, bubble popping, for the better part of half a decade now. While I appreciate your belief in the fundamentals, is it not possible for Vancouver to be a sort of transitional/growth period. All the new condos popping up, will eventually be occupied by somebody, at whatever price. It blows my mind that the city is growing at the rate that these places are you going up at, especially given our lack of true economic driver curently. But that is not to say that one will not emerge at some point and allow Vancouver to put its big boy pants on, while still being a nice place to live with lots of outdoor amenities and hey, maybe cultural events will pop up over time as well. Just a thought
Posted via RS Mobile

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by Ludepower

Real estate will always go up.

this is actually a horrible saying and it has been proven that this is not the case.
There's soo many countries I cant even name, USA, Spain, UK, Italy, Greece, etc etc. while most of these coincided with the last recession, their price drops are as much as 60% and it's not going to come back up anytime soon. In spain they had soo many people people buying real estate thinking the same thing you did. RE will always go up. now that it's dropped over 40%, wonder how long it will take them to go back up 60% to get their money back??? some of these countries have reports indicating that it will take 30 years for the RE absorption rate.

Now im not indicating that will happen here in Vancouver, but statements like real estate will always go up is just horrible.

[iEatClams]

I actually appreciate 4's input on this thread. At least he gives his reasoning behind them, we don't have to agree with all his opinions, but he has very valid points.

Originally Posted by 4444

To play devils advocate, have you considered these rebuttals to your points:

We don't need 8-10% interest rates to kill real estate, a 0.5% rise would wipe out so much affordability that it would have a material impact on the market. Rates will rise, to what level, we don't know, but the even more worrying thing is that now we're talking of rates, for this year, not going up, all bc our Canadian economy is stinking up the joint, just as the US and Europe are starting to grow... We weathered the storm, but maybe we actually just pushed the can down the road? I am really worried about the Canadian economy, and if unemployment, which is already high, grows, that will have a material effect on sentiment and prices.

This is very true. I cant say I dont agree. I actually really dislike real estate pumpers for being contradictory on this topic. They say interest rates increases wont have a material affect, and that the feds should increase mortgage amortization to make housing more affordable. The 40 yr amortization was one of the main reasons why RE prices went up soo much. I think the economy can grow more if we didn't spend a huge portion of our money on mortgage and shelter costs. I think there's a huge cost to our local economy from having EXTREMELY high real estate prices. Not only that, we have a negative inter-province migration because there are no jobs here + housing is too damn expensive. What's left is a future of people that are Haves, and have-nots. theres going to be a large wealth-gap between rich and poor people and this is never a good thing for society.



but back to interest rates, 5 yr mortgage rates are still relatively low, and if they get to high, many will switch to variable mortgage rates which are around prime - .3% give or take (about 2.7%, some places even better), but that's not locked in and can go up. But still, the bank of canada has said they dont see it going up until 2015. so any huge increases in real estate prices is not on the horizon.

I did read a report a couple months ago that said that mortgages in arrears has increased about 50%, but thats going from like a 0.5% to 0.75%, so the numbers still appear relatively minimal.

Originally Posted by 4444

But you speak as though ppl have always been house horny.

I'm reaching the big 30 mark in terms of age, but have had exposure and worked in related industries since I was 19. but to clarify, what I meant was that Vancouver recently has this mentality that they need to own their home. I dont think people have always been house horny, I actually think people have gotten infatuated with real estate the last 5 years, and the hornyness as grown more so within the last 3, where the mainstream media has picked up on and it's now one of the things you think about when you think of Vancouver: high real estate prices. Especially since we are nearing all time highs.

Like stocks, they always love to buy when it's hot and it's at a high.

[nah]

Originally Posted by UFO

4444, I'm curious how long you have been bearish on the local market for.

Observers have been calling for a market correction, bubble popping, for the better part of half a decade now. While I appreciate your belief in the fundamentals, is it not possible for Vancouver to be a sort of transitional/growth period. All the new condos popping up, will eventually be occupied by somebody, at whatever price. It blows my mind that the city is growing at the rate that these places are you going up at, especially given our lack of true economic driver curently. But that is not to say that one will not emerge at some point and allow Vancouver to put its big boy pants on, while still being a nice place to live with lots of outdoor amenities and hey, maybe cultural events will pop up over time as well. Just a thought
Posted via RS Mobile

the tech sector is definitely growing, with hootsuite and vision critical being head quartered here. we'll see how long that lasts though as Pixar just left town but amazon is coming in full force with an office lease good for 1000 employees in the new telus building.

[4444]

Originally Posted by UFO

4444, I'm curious how long you have been bearish on the local market for.

Observers have been calling for a market correction, bubble popping, for the better part of half a decade now. While I appreciate your belief in the fundamentals, is it not possible for Vancouver to be a sort of transitional/growth period. All the new condos popping up, will eventually be occupied by somebody, at whatever price. It blows my mind that the city is growing at the rate that these places are you going up at, especially given our lack of true economic driver curently. But that is not to say that one will not emerge at some point and allow Vancouver to put its big boy pants on, while still being a nice place to live with lots of outdoor amenities and hey, maybe cultural events will pop up over time as well. Just a thought
Posted via RS Mobile

Been bearish since fundamentals went way out of whack, got vocal about it when everyone became pumpers and the number of realtors spiked.

Thing is, history has shown us that fundamentals dictate long term prices, while some could argue Vancouver is growing, sadly it's more of a state of mind than actual fact. We have no economy, hootsuite is a peon of a company if it were in Silicon Valley (which has comparble real estate prices), that's speaks volumes to me right there.

If all of a sudden we suddenly saw head offices relocate from TO or Calgary, I'd change my tune, but that will not happen. We also won't become a secons Silicon Valley, we may have some small start ups which get a lot of attention, but again, it's just that, disproportionate attention versus the actual economic benefit.

People will start to say 'oh it's been 5 years of bubble territory, maybe this is just how it is' - those people need to be patient, people's emotions take a long time to reach breaking point, but when the view on real estate changes, it will get ugly quick. Just look at the US, the bubble there began in the early 2000's after cheap money was introduced to stimulate the post dot com crash of 2000/2001, burst in 2008/2009. Things take time.

Maybe I'm wrong and Vancouver really wil be the centre of the universe, but given the lack of good jobs, sluggish economic growth, I highly doubt that. But equally, this isn't about right or wrong, I won't personally profit from price decreases, it wil just prove that 100's of years of economic data and findings don't suddenly change, all bc vancouver's different, or so believe the sheeple that live there

[4444]

Interesting read, and extremely valid.

High Home Ownership Is Strongly Linked To High Unemployment [STUDY] - Business Insider

Also, we saw it in the states, after the financial crisis, people couldn't move to job markets bc they were under water in their mortgages

[Traum]

Originally Posted by 4444

People will start to say 'oh it's been 5 years of bubble territory, maybe this is just how it is' - those people need to be patient, people's emotions take a long time to reach breaking point, but when the view on real estate changes, it will get ugly quick. Just look at the US, the bubble there began in the early 2000's after cheap money was introduced to stimulate the post dot com crash of 2000/2001, burst in 2008/2009. Things take time.

Maybe I'm wrong and Vancouver really wil be the centre of the universe, but given the lack of good jobs, sluggish economic growth, I highly doubt that. But equally, this isn't about right or wrong, I won't personally profit from price decreases, it wil just prove that 100's of years of economic data and findings don't suddenly change, all bc vancouver's different, or so believe the sheeple that live there

Nobody is disagreeing that the fundamentals are out of whack in the local market. However, it seems to me that you are underestimating the power and duration of the Chinese hot money influx. That force has been fueling our market (and in fact, a good chunk of our economy) for the better part of the past 10 years.

I fully agree with you that when things collaspe, it will happen hard and fast. But given the socioeconomic and political climate in China, as well as our Canadian immigration policy, I think it is reasonably safe to say that an RE market collapse will not happen in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised if it stagnates or go into a downturn (within that time frame), but I don't see any reason why it would collapse in the short term.

[MoBettah]

China China China... Show me that data behind this mysterious horde of China buyers.

[Carl Johnson]

even if we believe the Chinese are part of driving forces behind the recent real estate price increase, this hot money is not a stable foundation to build an economy. one minute they come, the next minute all leave to chase the next boom. the recent well-off Chinese immigrations have very little attachment to our canadian way of life and are not here for a long haul. if China cleans up its act on environment, food safety, and education there are very few reasons for them to move here at all as china is still growing at 7.5% while Canadian economy is just limping at the bottom.

[Gridlock]

You know why "China money" comes up all the time when talking about real estate prices?

"We're different because...."

You know what comes up in Calgary?

"We're different because...oil"

Toronto?

"We're different because...headquarters/finance sector/auto manufacturing"

Montreal?

"We're different" <<bit of a Quebec joke there

Halifax?

"We'd love a real estate boom"

It isn't China blowing up the market man, its us. Right here. Hell, maybe Chinese people are sweeping through and buying shit up left right and centre...but right behind them is a Canadian resident buying right along beside them.

The issue is no one is saying no. No one is tapping out.

We will it. Ok, collectively we all have faith in a market. If we collectively lose faith in a market, then prices go down. It doesn't just "happen". It's driven by people. The "market" doesn't "decide" to collapse. People stop buying, and that affects the market, and that in turn drives more decisions.

So we keep soldiering on, rushing to buy everything before rates increas....wait! They didn't. So everyone rushed to buy at high prices riiiiight before the government said, "nope, economy sucks". The stakes continue to get higher.

So you end up with a perfect storm of: shaky economy, high debt load, and decreased confidence.

So will that drive those initial decisions, or do we ratchet it up a notch again? Are we still different? Maybe.

That's what I get out out of it right now. We continue to make the stakes that much higher.