https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/fede...g-program.html

Well, what did I tell you. I'm sure Canada will soon follow suit.

in a tough spot with work. our landlord is giving us till the end of the year to move out, so we found a very nearby building that ticks all the boxes and we put in an offer. we went back and forth and the offer got accepted. in any other time, it would still be expensive, but by moving there we will not lose any customers since it is so nearby. if we have to find a shop 5-10m away, we would lose a few customers for sure. we put down the initial deposit which is refundable, and now we're fearing for the worst. if commercial RE drops in the single digits no big deal, but if it drops quite a bit more than that and our sales are down from the economic slowdown, then big deal.

Some say the low rates will fuel our RE market with prices going up, others say RE will follow the markets and decline. That been said, Vancouver RE doesn't follow typical trend lines so it's going to be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks.

I see temporary spike in RE activity followed by the opposite. People are def trying to take advantage of low rates right now.

Another thing to consider is the lack of inventory because people are reluctant to list due to the virus. This might further fuel the market or we might get a influx of listings.

Just after the initial change in rates, I noticed 3 detached homes sold in the $2-2.5mil range in my area. Prior months there was either zero or 1 sold per month.

There's a spike on the west side as well, homes in the mid 3's are selling.

its sizzling out there..

saw 2 properties in the past 2 weeks

condo:
sold in 1 day..multiple offers...above ask 20% above assessed

house in east van:
sold within days..didnt make it to open house..multiple offers..10% above listing and almost 30% above assessed

hellooo stupidness

Yup, looking at sales today a few condos sold way over ask and only listed for a few days.

So many moving variables so it's impossible to gauge if the market will continue to go up or if a steep decline is incoming due to layoffs and businesses closing up.

Edit:

I was speaking with friend who's an investor. He's thinking we're going to see the RE market explode once the virus dies down. He reckons low rates and stimulus money into our economy will ignite our RE market which was already picking up before the pandemic hit. Hold on, It's going to be a wild ride boys.

Vancouver survives another recession? Knock on wood.

Vancouver RE market is like no other. If locals aren't buying they'll always be foreign investors ready to pounce.

It's also pretty remarkable that last year people were predicting old tear down homes in Vancouver would be a million dollars. It never happen, nowhere close and instead prices have rebounded.

I also think the market correcting itself over the past year saved us because if our RE market prices were at 2016 levels it would be game over.

I have gotten an accepted offer for my Vancouver condo, then buyer got cold feet because of the virus and collapsed the offer.
Man!!!! That's life

Don't stress, remember the last few days have been doom and gloom so it's understandable people are holding off. And who knows, you might get even a better offer in a few weeks.

We've been thinking of upgrading lately due to us expecting this summer and decided to stay in our river district area. This past Saturday was our first tour and looked at 6 units. Every unit had a waiting line up at least 2 parties deep but none of them sold and Sunday night 1 unit dropped $20k and another $40k. With everything that just happened the past couple days we've also have put a hold on looking and listing our place

Interest rates have been cheap for a long time. I dont see the rush to buy right now either. We're in uncharted territory. Just be happy you have a roof over your head right now.

Wait for a month.... when the first 20% of the people who are barely making payments on mortgage / mass EI / lay offs... that's when it'll be key to buy.

cash is king baby. those who upgraded will soon be going thru a stress test.

I'd offer another view on RE, but again, they aren't financial advice, just my personal view according to my own personal situation. Make your decision based on yours.

My family has a long history investing in Commercial RE, although we do keep an eye on RE. My cousin, specifically, spends most of his working minutes studying everything as they have a huge portfolio. (8figures)

This virus is going to bring havoc to many industries because from all major sources of scientific background, this is shaping up closer to our seasonal flu rather than SARS where it died down after a few months. Just in case you think this is going to be something similar to SARS, I can just tell you right now. It won't. Because even if it dies down like SARS, the effect of it is much more serious and would require more time to recover.

Now, with that in mind, let's talk about what my family thinks it's going to do to the general RE market, residential or commercial alike or even the broader asset market:

A huge portion of RE value derives from local people's income. It doesn't matter whether the buyer is local or oversea. Ultimately, the decision falls onto that the LOCAL market has to be able to absorb it at x price. The disruption that's currently taking place had many businesses closed down. Some are temporary, and some are permanent. One thing for sure, there'd be jobs lost.

As businesses recover from the aftermath, it won't simply snap right back. During the 2008 crisis, it took the world roughly 2.5yrs to normalize, and 5yr to come back to where it was. This time, the effect is going to be deeper and more personal, as it affected jobs in many sectors, regardless of one's income level. And more time will be required to come back. People who do not have enough fund to weather this period are going to suffer, some even have to sell/lose their home because they can't make their ends meet.

Global asset market, be it stock, RE, commodity... whatever took one of the longest bull market in modern history. A 12yrs run if you simply use the 08 market collapse as reference. The "correction" that we had last 2 years, if you call it that was simply a reflection of value given the policy in place.

Now with all asset markets really doing its corrections, RE will not be able to stand out of it. Call me Mr. Doom or pessimistic, but the bubble has burst.

Cash is king now and it (as in all assets) is going to keep adjusting itself until the cash finds a better opportunity than staying under the mattress. Stock has the largest liquidity, hence it drops the fastest. RE can take some time to adjust, but the truth is, all banks and lenders will be tightening up their lending practices (even with near 0% interest) because, with no end in sight for the virus, they want to conserve as much cash as possible. Lending out in this market environment is not an investment, but rather a liability.

Has anyone looked into paying the penalty to get out of a 5yr Fixed mortgage, and renew the mortage under a lower rate if the interest rates tank hard like the states. I feel you would pay (depending on home value) like $5000 in penalties, but save over $15000 in interest payments on much lower rate fixed term.

Im blown away how fast things changed.

The guy under me was selling his 750sqft unit for 10% under assessed 3 months ago, and ended up taking it off market due to no sale

Now in our building, theres 2 other units, 100sqft smaller, selling for 20% over

u have to work out the calculator for that but yes. Im also looking to renew my mortgage under a lower rate. sad thing i just renewed my mortgage under a fixed rate 14 months ago thinking rates were on the upswing.

Very common - we did that earlier this year after 1 year into our mortgage. We paid almost $10k in penalties (added to principal) but will save nearly $25k in interest over those remaining 4 years, plus added an extra year at ~2.5% which I was happy to have.

-Mark

I have been thinking of this too, just started my mortgage two weeks ago :rukidding:

Vancouver Real Estate is a fickle thing.

There is so little supply out there it's crazy. Looking for a detached house around the $1-1.5M mark, good luck.

There just isn't enough supply out there. Plus, asian parents have the cash to spend. Let's be real, who is buying a detached house without their parents money? This combined with record low interest rates, I can't see the RE market taking a hit in the short term. Long term is a different story, but in the short term RE market is still gonna chug along.

The thing about housing is that everyone needs it. The kids in their 30's are out there looking right now, they're not looking for a quick flip, they're looking for something they can afford. They are looking for a home. If they can afford the payments, then they'll buy the house. There are so many kids in their 30's that need a home. On my last listing, there were 18 offers. Crazy.

Starting tomorrow, HSBC offering 1.88% fixed on a 3-year term on new high-ratio mortgages plus up to $3000 cash back.

Seems like a good deal?

https://www.hsbc.ca/mortgages/mortgage-offers/

Spoke with our mortgage broker last night and she basically said good luck in trying to remortgage at the moment.

Banks are so tied up with people calling in about the deferrals etc. And with most people working from home she said almost all the resources are tied up in that. She also said that while the prime lending rate is dropping a lot of the banks are raising their fixed rates because of the increased risk in lending now

Will likely have to wait until things calm down before doing anything