Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[bcrdukes]

Originally Posted by yray

no bike to work?

Riding to my primary office is not an option. I've done it a few times, and let's just say, it's like riding with and against nothing but 18-wheelers - it just isn't safe, and there are no real alternatives. I'll ride Downtown on Fridays, but I try to avoid the Downtown office due to the time it takes.

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

He replied that the drive time was his time to relax and unwind..your idea of relaxing is sitting in bumper to bumper gridlock for 3 hours a day?...

guess it all depends what he's coming home to

i switched jobs and went from having to cross a bridge to 10min round trip from home. i did the math and realized i saved about 10-14 days a year's worth of time in my car on the road

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by TouringTeg

Listings going up in Victoria. I think all the empty airbnb are going to be a factor.

You either rent it out or sell. Rents are likely falling and there will be more empty units in tourist hot spots like Victoria and Kelowna.

Everyone needs a home but I think it is an awful time to buy an investment property.

Exactly.

Airbnb will bring down condo prices and increase inventory. You can already go through listings and figure out which units were Airbnb rentals. These are the sellers you want to target with aggressive offers.

You're also right about rents. There's an increase of rental units and lack of renters which means rent prices will go down so for an investor it makes no sense to buy a condo unless it's a smoking deal.

And lets not forget banks are tighten up and lending in general will be tight for the foreseeable future meaning a lot of people who were using their LOC's to buy investments will bow out. These are the same people who might have to dump existing investment properties as well. You'll need a lot of cash if you want to play in this market.

[TOS'd]

Originally Posted by bcrdukes

That's just terrible.

My daily round trip commute is about 70KM per day. On average, it takes me about 45 minutes each way (on a good day) and on a bad day, it's between 1 to 1.5 hours. Should I ever go to the Downtown office, a commute is at minimum 45 minutes to an hour. It would take me 1.5 hours to get home by car over a distance of 9KM. Transit would take about the same time so there was no winning.

I thought about moving closer to work, but even the traffic near the office would take 45 minutes, so fuck that.

Originally Posted by bcrdukes

Riding to my primary office is not an option. I've done it a few times, and let's just say, it's like riding with and against nothing but 18-wheelers - it just isn't safe, and there are no real alternatives. I'll ride Downtown on Fridays, but I try to avoid the Downtown office due to the time it takes.

Traffic here makes no sense. It can take almost the exact same time for me to public transit, bike, or drive to work.

And I agree biking is really dangerous over here. Once you get close to downtown after surviving people going 80+ next to you without giving you space then you have to deal with getting cut off by Uber/Lyft drivers. Also the damn street car tracks. An Uber driver cut me off and my instant reaction was to swerve and then my front wheel got caught up in the street car track and i flipped head over handlebars and then slide a few feet. I now just bike casually on the weekends on trails.

[Alpine]

I think we are going to continue to see the entry level detached market (ie. under 1.5) perform very well relative to the attached market. Potential price drops should hit the attached market much harder than the detached market. The detached home has always been the holy grail for most of us (and certainly anyone that has ever lived in a strata). Lower prices will be an incentive to move up/trade up if possible. We saw the entry level detached market prices bounce starting July 2019, and prices were continuing to go up In this segment until covid struck.

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by Alpine

I think we are going to continue to see the entry level detached market (ie. under 1.5) perform very well relative to the attached market. Potential price drops should hit the attached market much harder than the detached market. The detached home has always been the holy grail for most of us (and certainly anyone that has ever lived in a strata). Lower prices will be an incentive to move up/trade up if possible. We saw the entry level detached market prices bounce starting July 2019, and prices were continuing to go up In this segment until covid struck.

Back in March I would have agreed with you but now all bets are off. COVID is a game changer, it's put the entire globe in a recession. Wealth is been wiped out, people losing their jobs, business shutting down, it will take years for things to return back to pre-COVID days.

Our RE market isn't immune to a global recession and we're going to get hit hard. How hard is anyone's guess but remember before COVID we had the highest debt levels, imagine where the debt levels are right now. Banks are also tighten up on lending and credit, not only are they restricting LOC's but they're even lowering credit card limits even if you're a good client.

I agree locals want to move up but the same people looking to move up need to sell their existing property and that will be an issue in this market. Also tighten lending hurts those who want to move up more than the investors who are sitting on cash but don't expect investors to swoop into our RE market and save us. Investors will be looking for fire sales so if there's a few houses that sell for cheap expect rest of the market to follow.

[SSM_DC5]

The happyslips in mom's basement shall prevail because they have nothing to sell before buying.

[Spoon]

CMHC forecasts decline in average house prices of nine per cent to 18 per cent over next 12 months.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cmhc-see...ting-1.1438554

[bcrdukes]

Originally Posted by SSM_DC5

The happyslips in mom's basement shall prevail because they have nothing to sell before buying.

Savage

[TOS'd]

Originally Posted by SSM_DC5

The happyslips in mom's basement shall prevail because they have nothing to sell before buying.

Too soon man, he's been MIA since mid april.

[RiceIntegraRS]

Originally Posted by TOS'd

Too soon man, he's been MIA since mid april.

nope, he logged in a week ago

[PiuYi]

Originally Posted by Spoon

CMHC forecasts decline in average house prices of nine per cent to 18 per cent over next 12 months.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cmhc-see...ting-1.1438554

That's for Canada, but always feel Vancouver is a unique market and the same rules don't apply here. Me thinks pent up demand could soak up a lot of sales.

[Spoon]

Originally Posted by PiuYi

That's for Canada, but always feel Vancouver is a unique market and the same rules don't apply here. Me thinks pent up demand could soak up a lot of sales.

Here’s a stat for you, Vancouver has the worst debt to income ratio (242%) as well as being the least affordable city to live in in Canada (requiring 84.7% of income to cover ownership costs).

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/housi...ar-record-high

http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/_assets-...se-mar2019.pdf

With millions on CERB and businesses unable to open due to COVID-19, the recent loss of income directly affects many mortgage holders' ability to repay loans. The government has acted swiftly by protecting property owners through mortgage deferrals as well as rent subsidies for landlords/investors. However, these policies merely place them on life support. Like so many have said already, it will take 4-6 months to see whether the emperor has no clothes. After these policies and CERB expires, what happens? Whether or not incomes can return to what it was will determine the outcome of this market.

So many people seem to think that since businesses are reopening, everything is back to normal when that is simply not the case. Once consumer confidence has been shaken, very seldom do you see a V shaped recovery. I for one already expect my way of life and consumption patterns to change. As an example, schools are reopening soon, but we do not plan on bringing the kids back (particularly because June is more of a "fun" month for elementary school kids). My family dines out regularly pre-COVID, but we do not expect that to happen for awhile even after we reach the new normal. In a restaurateur's perspective, this leads to loss of revenues and then trickles down to a decrease in staff or possibly closing of stores. Furthermore, bricks and mortar businesses has it worst as they’re subject to regulations such as head count restrictions and what not. I can’t even fathom what things would look like if a second wave comes about. Most small businesses will need to re-evaluate their business plans to see if it’s worthwhile to keep operating.

Aside from property, a vehicle is likely the second most valuable asset most people will hold. Having spoken to people who are in the auto industry, the luxury vehicle market has already started to collapse prior to the pandemic. All that easy Chinese money is going back east and unlikely to return. If that’s the case, the market is dependent on local demand. With median household income for Vancouver being $86k and likely to decline, as well as banks tightening their lending standards and limiting the amount buyers can borrow, my outlook differs slightly from yours.

[TOS'd]

Originally Posted by RiceIntegraRS

nope, he logged in a week ago

I pointed that out in another thread as well. Hasn't posted since, so still MIA/hiding.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

Our RE market isn't immune to a global recession and we're going to get hit hard. How hard is anyone's guess but remember before COVID we had the highest debt levels, imagine where the debt levels are right now. Banks are also tighten up on lending and credit, not only are they restricting LOC's but they're even lowering credit card limits even if you're a good client.
.

If our RE market comes out of this unscathed, our RE is immune to global recession which means it's time to put most of your eggs in one basket 🤡

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by PiuYi

That's for Canada, but always feel Vancouver is a unique market and the same rules don't apply here. Me thinks pent up demand could soak up a lot of sales.

Pent up demand might take a backseat to uncertain times and tougher qualifying. I don't think anyone is immune from the economic downturn caused by COVID. Some will get hit harder than others.

[Tapioca]

Do we actually have public data of the median income of renter households vs home-owning households?

My hunch is that renting households tend to have lower median incomes than home-owning ones. I also suspect that higher income workers have suffered less as a result of COVID-19 as they have been able to work at home. So while aggregate median income and debt levels are somewhat interesting, they don't really tell the story about the present class divide between current homeowners and current renters in cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

[bcrdukes]

I find that Zoocasa and realtor.ca gives a good breakdown of median income in a particular area, but it doesn't go as far as breaking it down in to renter vs. owner households. The neat part is that it provides statistics on education levels, job industry (high level, not specific) age brackets and a few other statistics which are helpful, but don't dig super deep into details, leaving some room for assumptions, for better or worse.

[Spoon]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

I also suspect that higher income workers have suffered less as a result of COVID-19 as they have been able to work at home.

Most white collar desk job types who were able to keep their jobs likely ended up better off in this pandemic. When there's less opportunities to spend (cost of commute, dining, social events etc.), your savings naturally go up. The question is, are these people in the majority? Does this make up for the high income earners who have been furloughed or laid off. Some of these are also business owners who may have operated on zero revenue with bills to pay. What about professionals like dentists, therapists etc. who were also negatively impacted?

Perhaps what we can confidently agree on is that revenues for most businesses will be less this year compared to previous years. Knowing this, it just means businesses will have to cut costs. Within my circle of family and friends, I've already seen this happen in the past month. Most of them are SME and have either furloughed or laid off staff by 50%, or have had to temporarily cut salaries for staff of all levels. Be thankful to still have a job in the next 12-24 months.

[PiuYi]

Totally agree, the pandemic has obliterated Vancouver's massive food industry and a good number of those jobs are likely never coming back. I don't think there is any doubt lost jobs will cause people to have to sell their homes and go back to renting. I just feel Vancouver has more cushion than other places. Not to say prices won't go down, but there is enough hidden capital sloshing around that the effect will be less than in other Canadian cities.

On paper Vancouverites have lower incomes, but that does not account for families with income earned/capital stored in other countries. (Ex. the typical Vancouver 20yr old Ferrari driver declares, and makes, 20k income but can draw on family money in China when he totals the Ferrari and wants an AMG to replace it. Extreme example, but this applies to a lot of foreign students turned permanent residents) Another example is the whole underground Alipay/WeChat economy. Maybe not massive, but money stored and income earned in those accounts are never declared. Vancouver in general doesn't have low income, people here are just better than most at hiding it.

The debt to income ratio, while a useful metric, I think is a bit skewed in places like Vancouver and Toronto because we will always be the most indebted cities in Canada because of our high RE prices. Lower declared incomes in Vancouver will also help skew the ratio. But the reality is, Vancouver RE hasn't been shaped by income levels the past 20 years, it's these external forces that have pushed and kept prices up. Lastly, ultra low interest rates have allowed for such a high DTI ratio to be somewhat sustainable and I don't see rates going up soon.

As someone looking to buy in the next couple years (and without wishing poorly on anyone) I do hope you're right and the market has a bit of a correction. I just don't see it being as big of one as anywhere else in Canada.

[Euro7r]

Then you have me with a presale on hand that's due for completion next year (intent was to live/rent out). Do I sell it on assignment now....

[Spoon]

If it's your primary residence, why would you sell it unless you needed to. End of the day, you need to live somewhere.

If it's an investment property, treat it as a business and crunch your numbers. Do note that rental prices in GVR are supposedly down anywhere from 5-15%.

https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Euro7r

Then you have me with a presale on hand that's due for completion next year (intent was to live/rent out). Do I sell it on assignment now....

Is anyone going to buy it?

[Twi7ch]

Just sold for $5k under asking but still made plenty compared to what I purchased for in 2016. Going to wait 6-24 months and try and buy a house.

[hud 91gt]

Originally Posted by TOS'd

I pointed that out in another thread as well. Hasn't posted since, so still MIA/hiding.

Pretty sure his wife finally took his loud keyboard. He’s just cruisin’ with a mouse.