Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Lomac]

Originally Posted by multicartual

Can't disagree more, certain neighborhoods attract a certain mindset, Gastown is a great example of it. So many interesting people down here.


I didn't meet any free-thinkers living near 208th and 82nd avenue, that's for sure!

...that's because it's all still under construction...

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by 4444

i guess when i see most people as dicks, i don't dissect the more/less interesting dicks from the less/more interesting 'free thinking' dicks

Well, that's your first social skillset that you haven't developed.

i find the gastown crowd to be the yaletown crowd of 10 years ago, they think they're special and different, but they're not, they're just full of themselves dicks who, while under the guise of independent thought and hipsterdom, actually dress and act like every other hipster around with their skinny jeans, plaid shirts, stupid facial hair and glasses riding around on fixies.

Yes but if you've already admitted to being unwilling or unable to sort value from non-value, how can I accept that you know what you're talking about?

it's the alternative movement of the 90's again - alternative become severely uncool when everyone become alternative, i.e. it was no longer an alternative lifestyle

There is a reason why so many big acts came out of the same area at the same time... like minded people gravitate towards certain neighborhoods.

i'm glad you get along with them so well, but i, as an anti social person, find my interactions with them like plucking my eyeballs from their sockets, it's the same thing over and over again with them, same story, same 'start up' bullshit 'i'm going to change the world with my website that brings people together' or 'i'm going to consolidate groupon and living social'

That's funny, I know a ton of people running start ups and many of them are doing well. Sure, many of them fail, but so have like a half dozen of my previous projects. It is rare for people to succeed on their first try, and this is why most people seek comfort in a 9-5 and then hate on those with the courage to take risk.

i think you can clearly see i hate people, in general

Only hurting yourself. It is often not what you know, but who you know. This is why it is so worth paying higher rent to live in a neighborhood with exemplary people.

[4444]

Originally Posted by multicartual

Only hurting yourself. It is often not what you know, but who you know. This is why it is so worth paying higher rent to live in a neighborhood with exemplary people.

trust me, i do just fine.

thanks for trying to judge me and say that i'm doing so poor b/c of the fact i hate ppl.

just concentrate on your life, i'll concentrate on mine

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by 4444

trust me, i do just fine.

thanks for trying to judge me and say that i'm doing so poor b/c of the fact i hate ppl.

just concentrate on your life, i'll concentrate on mine

Sounds good, hope you get right with god, brah

[sonick]

Oh look some pro-condo propaga- er, news in the vancouver sun this morning:

Vancouver condo values enjoy a robust future, report predicts

Report, as sponsored by Royal LePage, based on numbers provided by Royal LePage: http://docs.rlpnetwork.com/CondoRepo..._Report_EN.pdf

Discussion refuting the report, although to be fair the report does indicate instability in condos for the next 12-24 months, while this post shows the current market: http://vancouverpeak.com/showthread.php?tid=5220

[4444]

Originally Posted by sonick

Oh look some pro-condo propaga- er, news in the vancouver sun this morning:

Vancouver condo values enjoy a robust future, report predicts

Report, as sponsored by Royal LePage, based on numbers provided by Royal LePage: http://docs.rlpnetwork.com/CondoRepo..._Report_EN.pdf

Discussion refuting the report, although to be fair the report does indicate instability in condos for the next 12-24 months, while this post shows the current market: Signs of the Times

a prediction by royal lepage on condos.

brb, gotta go buy a condo now. i hate the media in this shitty

[StutteR_]

Royal Lepage....

[sonick]

LePage report indicates:

“CMHC forecasts that the vacancy rate for Vancouver CMA will fall from 1.8% in 2012 to 1.5% in 2013 and 1.2% in 2014″

CMHC Housing Market Outlook for Vancouver/Abbotsford for Fall 2013 indicates:

"As a result, the vacancy rate is expected to rise to 2.1 per cent in 2013, from 1.8 per cent in 2012, and edge up further to 2.2 per cent in 2014 as more new rental supply is added to the purpose-built rental market."

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalo...=1387473977437



Edit: looks like LePage's numbers are based on the Spring 2013 report (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esu...=1387475296326)... outdated data already lol

[4444]

i don't trust a single word that is released by any realtor or even CMHC. CMHC has a vested interest in stopping any market crash. we have NO ONE who has both a vested interested in the truth and has the ability to access the true data. This saddens me greatly.

This is why the US is such a better market to invest in, all else equal, transparency. Trulia, Zillow make it so easy to look at a property and see everything in its history, comparable sales, etc. etc. We are blind and are lead by realtors here - on that basis, ignoring total and utter over pricing, i just won't buy in canada.

[GLOW]

doesn't the US have extremely heavy property taxes even though properties cost less (of course depends on area).

i have a coworker that's a US citizen that told me that. but he's from NJ i believe. maybe taxes are nuts over there.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by GLOW

doesn't the US have extremely heavy property taxes even though properties cost less (of course depends on area).

i have a coworker that's a US citizen that told me that. but he's from NJ i believe. maybe taxes are nuts over there.

Econ 101: there is no such thing as a free lunch. You pay for services one way or another.
Posted via RS Mobile

[MasonJar]

This Royal LePage reminds of a lady I have on my facebook. She is a "new" realtor (3-ish year) and almost on a daily basis she is boasting about how FANTASTIC the market is and how everyone should buy. She posts these CMHC or "real estate news" that is telling everyone to invest and to not waste any time b/c everything is selling FAST!

These links and articles are always filled with a lot of exclamation marks and pictures of white people shaking hands.

The ironic thing is that she has been posting the same 4 condos for sale for the last 10 months and has now started to offer money if someone can recommend a buyer. Guess "selling fast" is a rather loose term.

[4444]

Originally Posted by GLOW

doesn't the US have extremely heavy property taxes even though properties cost less (of course depends on area).

i have a coworker that's a US citizen that told me that. but he's from NJ i believe. maybe taxes are nuts over there.

Totally depends where you are, if u live on the Pacific Ocean in Malibu, ya u'll pay $50k a year, i have properties in Phoenix that are about $1200-1300 a year, for large 3-5 bedroom w/pool and nice neighbourhoods... I think Vancouver property taxes are high, my mum's house gets taxed between 3 and 4k a year, and it's a modest, though pleasant 3 bedroom way off in the suburbs

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by 4444

Totally depends where you are, if u live on the Pacific Ocean in Malibu, ya u'll pay $50k a year, i have properties in Phoenix that are about $1200-1300 a year, for large 3-5 bedroom w/pool and nice neighbourhoods... I think Vancouver property taxes are high, my mum's house gets taxed between 3 and 4k a year, and it's a modest, though pleasant 3 bedroom way off in the suburbs

What's worse is that the gov keeps raising property every single year. Factor in mortatages, property tax, starta fee (if you live in an apartment), maintance fee for your house then it seems renting is actually cheaper and more hassle free.

I think a lot of first time home/apartment investor overlook these things and if they do take a look they are actually paying out of their pockets every month even if their unit gets rented.

[MasonJar]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

What's worse is that the gov keeps raising property every single year. Factor in mortatages, property tax, starta fee (if you live in an apartment), maintance fee for your house then it seems renting is actually cheaper and more hassle free.

I think a lot of first time home/apartment investor overlook these things and if they do take a look they are actually paying out of their pockets every month even if their unit gets rented.

This is very true. People just look at the mortage....mortgage mortgage mortgage! Why rent when you can pay a mortgage and the money is YOURS!

It is not rare to have a strata fee that is close to $500. Just yesterday I was killing time on MLS and saw 15+ condos where the strata was over $400. That strata payment, you will never never never EVER get that money back. Ever. Not to mention any "assessments" you are obligated to pay when the roof leaks.

Same with property tax but, imo, it is a bit different.

When you rent....all you pay is rent. One fee. Once a month. Twelve times are year with the possibility of a small, fairly predictable annual increase on your yearly anniversary. Don't like it? Move. You just need to give one month's notice. No listing....no banks...no negotiating. Just pack yo shit and bounce.

I am going to make it my goal to beat this shit into peoples' heads.

[multicartual]

Renting gets you into awesome neighborhoods, too!

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by MasonJar

This is very true. People just look at the mortage....mortgage mortgage mortgage! Why rent when you can pay a mortgage and they money is YOURS!

It is not rare to have a strata fee that is close to $500. Just yesterday I was killing time on MLS and saw 15+ condos where the strata was over $400. That strata payment, you will never never never EVER get that money back. Ever. Not to mention any "assessments" you are obligated to pay when the roof leaks.

Same with property tax but, imo, it is a bit different.

When you rent....all you pay is rent. One fee. Once a month. Twelve times are year with the possibility of a small, fairly predictable annual increase on your yearly anniversary. Don't like it? Move. You just need to give one month's notice. No listing....no banks...no negotiating. Just pack yo shit and bounce.

I am going to make it my goal to beat this shit into peoples' heads.

I agree... I can't tell you how many times I've crunched the numbers for how much a place needs to appreciate in value just to break EVEN let alone make any actual money. It's awful how brainwashed the masses are. But it's not surprising - every one of our parents have seen their houses double in value in 10 years or less creating all this new equity that makes new purchases at those prices viable.

[MasonJar]

Originally Posted by lowside67

I agree... I can't tell you how many times I've crunched the numbers for how much a place needs to appreciate in value just to break EVEN let alone make any actual money. It's awful how brainwashed the masses are. But it's not surprising - every one of our parents have seen their houses double in value in 10 years or less creating all this new equity that makes new purchases at those prices viable.

I totally understand the "want" to own. I actually currently own and TOTALLY regret it. I bought it almost 5 years ago. The price tag has not changes and, if anything, if I had to sell I would lose money due to fees, etc.

I have it rented out and I don't make a dime. The rent fee covers mortgage, strata, prop tax. It sucks. It is a huge headache. I have had 6 (SIX!!) tenants in less than 5 years and STILL....with all of that, I some times have a fleeting thought of buying again b/c it is literally ingrained my our minds that this is what we are SUPPOSE to do. Whether is it pressure from family, jealously of friends, societal prestige...that feeling does creepy in some times. I will re-crunch the numbers and realize that things have not change...I am right in not buying and I roll over and go back to sleep.

Some people look at me like I am an idiot...I own...but I still rent. I like it. A lot. I rent a place I that would cost me double to buy. Do people look down at me because I rent? Maybe....but fuck them. They are all idiots that think their place will be worth 30% more in 5 years. Who will be laughing then.

My parent's house is worth 7 times what they bought it for. I will NEVER....NEVER see that increase in my life. Many don't understand that.

[4444]

If someone looked down on me for renting, I'd laugh at them, simple as that

Look to Europe, all big cities have 50% or so ownership,

Renters ftw, economically in this economic landscape

[lowside67]

This was a post I wrote earlier in this thread looking at my actual suite in Woodwards:

Originally Posted by lowside67

To take an example, my current place in Woodwards. I'm in Gastown, 38th floor, 900sqft, 2BR unit looking straight at the water.

Rent = $2200/month

To buy, a reasonable expectation is to pay about $675k for this unit.

Assuming 20% down and 2.99% mortgage, this is going to cost you: $136,000 cash for the down payment, another $10k for transfer tax and legal fees. For round numbers, you need $150,000 cash in your bank account. Then on top of this, you are looking at a best case mortgage payment of $2313 over 30 years, then you add $412 for strata fees and $240 for property tax.

Own = $150k cash, $2965/month

It would cost me nearly $10,000 in CASH every year out of my pocket to own instead of rent, which means at my current tax bracket, I need to earn over $14,000 per year more just to have the same amount of money left to live on each year.

After 5 years you have paid $140,000 towards your mortgage but it has gone down just $60,000 - the rest is interest. So if you want to sell your place and break even, it needs to have appreciated from $675k to $755k just to cover the interest. Another $10k in realtor fees and legal to sell it and now you need to get $765k to break even.

This is over 13% appreciation in 5 years which is pretty realistic but that means you took on all this risk to have the exact same amount as if you had've rented...

I don't believe that owning property is wrong, but it's just not the obvious slam dunk decision that some people seem to think it is... the real value in owning is the forced savings - you do have a bunch less cash every month but some portion of that will end up as "value" that you can access assuming nothing crashes whereas most people don't take the $700 difference between renting and a mortgage and just put it in a savings account...

Mark

[MasonJar]

^^ I find these things fun!

Another example...

RENT: BRAND NEW Modern Two Bedroom with Large Balcony

BUY: V1024451, # 2606 1325 ROLSTON ST, Vancouver, British Columbia V6Z1M7

Y'all can do the math, but adding strata and prop tax, you are hovering around $3000+/month depending on your down payment.

[sonick]

I actually made a spreadsheet that took into account all these factors, and compared them over a 5 and 10 year span. It's not perfect (e.g. commission amounts are roughly estimated) but makes a more interesting breakdown...

Taking the above example into account (not sure about gas or maintenance), here's the breakdown. If you spot any issues or the comparison is completely off base, please let me know (I am in Marketing, I don't do numbers lol).

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by sonick

I actually made a spreadsheet that took into account all these factors, and compared them over a 5 and 10 year span. It's not perfect (e.g. commission amounts are roughly estimated) but makes a more interesting breakdown...

Taking the above example into account (not sure about gas or maintenance), here's the breakdown. If you spot any issues or the comparison is completely off base, please let me know (I am in Marketing, I don't do numbers lol).

So fucked up, that is my rent per month, $2150


I love my life, living in Gastown is so much fun, I had a great conversation with a couple people at the Blarneystone tonight after eating the best $7 pizzas in town, daaaamnnnnnn


NO WAY could I EVER come up with 125k CASH as a down payment... no way, never. It would goto bitches, big boost, and partying

[Ferra]

Originally Posted by sonick

I actually made a spreadsheet that took into account all these factors, and compared them over a 5 and 10 year span. It's not perfect (e.g. commission amounts are roughly estimated) but makes a more interesting breakdown...

Spoiler!

Taking the above example into account (not sure about gas or maintenance), here's the breakdown. If you spot any issues or the comparison is completely off base, please let me know (I am in Marketing, I don't do numbers lol).

didn't really look at the numbers in detail...but I think even a 1% increase in house value will skew the numbers to the other side...(tho many will argue housing price won't be going up)
- I would probably use a higher investment return than a 2.3% GIC....
- strata fees is probably going to cost you more than $300/month?
- doubt your rent will stay the same for 5-10years...

in the end..i think these make-up scenarios are kinda pointless...
you can always make one better than the other by changing the parameters to your liking...(e.g. your investment return %, expected changes in home value, the unit price-to-rent ratio...etc)

I would do these analysis on a case by case basis using actual numbers you are faced with....but you really can't prove renting or owning is better than the other in general using some make-up scenario...

[MasonJar]

It's not really "made-up" though...