Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[hypediss]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

how would they check though? They could easily say they are traveling to other parts of the country, visiting friends, relatives........

i would think they would check for driver license databases and whether these guys hold any medical records/visits outside of quebec for extensive periods of time... there are always patterns but whether there's resources to look for them thats another question..

just a thought

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

B.C. property market hazy after 'millionaire visa' scrapped - British Columbia - CBC News

Thoughts?

These are high end markets like 3million or more. Your average apartments, house isn't going to have much impact on this. Besides I think is a good idea to stop this program. I never like the idea of buying Canadian citizenship with money. If that's the case why not sell it out right for 1million per person? 2million if you want to live in BC.

These agents are just worry because now they actually have to put effort into their work.

[shawnly1000]

I'm sure there's still alternative routes to the one they closed though, no? Like buying/starting a business (restaurants/groceries etc) i.e. investing but not in the form of loaning the government the $800,000/having net worth of 1.6 million

[hirevtuner]

kind of a blessing in disguise if you ask me, now the local residents can have a chance to afford this overinflated housing market

[sonick]

Originally Posted by hirevtuner

now the local residents can have a chance to afford this overinflated housing market

ha, if you believe that then I think you will be sorely disappointed.
Posted via RS Mobile

[Lomac]

Originally Posted by hirevtuner

kind of a blessing in disguise if you ask me, now the local residents can have a chance to afford this overinflated housing market

[melloman]

I would hope that this would cause the housing market to finally take a dip.

Without all the foreign money coming in, houses will sit and go stale, most likely forcing sellers to drop prices.

Then again that's just my hope. I'd love to own a fucking apartment in Burnaby in the next 3 years if it's even possible. (And I mean 850sq.ft.+ for less then $300k)

[sonick]

Perhaps (or even highly likely) its just real estate media propaganda, but of all the things I've read and seen, foreign money has only had a minor effect on overall housing prices in Vancouver. I don't have my hopes up on any large effect this will have, but I do hope I am wrong.

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

B.C. property market hazy after 'millionaire visa' scrapped - British Columbia - CBC News

Thoughts?

i'm amazed they printed this line:

Real estate agents in Vancouver say property prices could take a hit

even if high end houses don't sell, i would think a majority of the homes (single detached) in vancouver/burnaby/richmond are in the 700k-1.2mill range and those are the houses that are still being bought/sold.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Lord Disick

And it was the same guy talking about buying a BMW i8 to flip? What's the story with this guy?

No, the i8 flipping guy was me and I'm just a lucky semen whose parents provide me access to investment funds/lenders rather than working on my own account.

I think Vancouver's RE needs to come back to fundamentals, or at least close to it.

To give a perspective, I just closed an investment property in US. The unit generates U$6000/mth in income triple net in a nice area with potential to grow given its continuos increase in population. All this for less than 1M CDN.

What would 1M CDN get me in Vancouver? A crackpot in East Van...

I mean, I like Van as a whole and am planning to move back later this year for my son (IMO the weather is just so much better than here). But when discussing RE by itself, Vancouver's RE is totally out of whack. Take the investment property I mentioned above, I could rent a fricken mansion for $5000 (roughly what's left after taxmen) a month in Van. Why bother with buying it?

[Iceman-19]

Originally Posted by Hehe

No, the i8 flipping guy was me and I'm just a lucky semen whose parents provide me access to investment funds/lenders rather than working on my own account.

I think Vancouver's RE needs to come back to fundamentals, or at least close to it.

To give a perspective, I just closed an investment property in US. The unit generates U$6000/mth in income triple net in a nice area with potential to grow given its continuos increase in population. All this for less than 1M CDN.

What would 1M CDN get me in Vancouver? A crackpot in East Van...

I mean, I like Van as a whole and am planning to move back later this year for my son (IMO the weather is just so much better than here). But when discussing RE by itself, Vancouver's RE is totally out of whack. Take the investment property I mentioned above, I could rent a fricken mansion for $5000 (roughly what's left after taxmen) a month in Van. Why bother with buying it?

Not sure why you got failed. I know exactly what you are talking about. A buddy of mine is working on an apartment project in upstate new york. 21 apartments, renting for approx 1300/mo each average. I believe he said each unit is costing $75k each, MINUS a 40% tax credit from the US govt because its a hertiage building or some shit. Should be finished in a month or so. So for approx $1 mil or less, he is going to have an income of $27000 a month for as long as he wants, on top of some other things he has going on in the building (3 commercial spaces on the bottom floor). Im guessing he is looking at approx 33k a month income, based off what I have seen and know about the project. Or he could buy a shit shack in Vancouver. HMMMMMMMMMM.

[sonick]

As expected, the venerable Garth Turner weighs in on the withdrawal of the Immigrant Investor program and foreign real estate investment. As always with him, take it with a grain of salt.

R.I.P. HAM ? Greater Fool ? Authored by Garth Turner ? The Troubled Future of Real Estate

F could not resist scrapping the Immigrant Investor Program in his budget this week. It was a perfect move to placate his base of support and purposefully throw a giant vat of cold water on the most unaffordable real estate market in Canada. Even though the program has been suspended since 2012, and even though it approved fewer than 3,000 families a year, it embodied everything many Canadians wanted to hate as unfair.

[willystyle]

Pretty sure those that are cutoff from the investor immigration program (with 1.6+ million net worth) aren't looking at $800K single-family detached houses nor 400K condo's, so i don't think the prices will dip at all.

And seriousy, it doesn't stop them from purchasing more homes in Vancouver. Sure, it might take them longer to get PR then citizenship now, but nothing is stopping them from buying up more homes, and with the Quebec investor program still going on, that poses more loopholes for them to reside in BC.

[Gululu]

Originally Posted by melloman

I would hope that this would cause the housing market to finally take a dip.

Without all the foreign money coming in, houses will sit and go stale, most likely forcing sellers to drop prices.

The investor class immigrants program has been frozen for 2 years now and prices haven't gone down.

[Carl Johnson]

real estate trends are very persistent, so it is going to take some time for Vancouver prices to dip. the last 3 months of 2013 sales volume was already softening. but canceling of the investor program is definitely a catalyst to further price correction for the next 4-5 years imo. i still believe the real blood-bath will happen in 2016/2017 when rates go up and all the idiots who have leveraged up to their eyeballs renew their mortgage.

people have gotten way too much comfortable with their houses. i will buy when people start to cry talking about how much they lost in Vancouver RE.

[Roach]

Originally Posted by Gululu

The investor class immigrants program has been frozen for 2 years now and prices haven't gone down.

To clarify, the program had frozen new applications over the past couple of years. Applications received prior to that point were still being processed.

Now, all current applications have been returned.

Kev

[4444]

Immigrant investor program's demise won't hurt Metro Vancouver's soaring home sales: report | Real Estate and Development | Business in Vancouver
Immigrant investor program's demise won't hurt Metro Vancouver's soaring home sales: report...
... says BC real estate association

even if these rich investors only made up a small portion of sales (which i believe to be the case, but we don't have ANY publicly released information), it's all about perception - now the greater fools on the street will now think their isn't HAM following up their purchase, thus raising prices further.

Real estate values outside of fundamentals are based on emotion - this may well trigger the change in view and emotion

w/e, i don't care, i won't buy shit in vancouver until yields are much higher and annualized rents are more than 1/15 of prices

[xpl0sive]

I think this program will be back. They've "cancelled" it before. Years ago this program used to only require them to lend the Government $250,000. Then they raised it to $500,000. Then they "cancelled" it and brought it back silently, raising the required amount to $800,000. I'm sure this is just a play by the current government before the elections, they will bring the program back and probably raise the requirement again.

[Carl Johnson]

What the story doesn't mention is what the rich Chinese who've already bought one or more properties in vancouver in anticipation that their applications would eventually get processed are going to do. Since they can't take advantage of all the benefits that are made available to a Canadian resident or citizen such as sending their kids to local schools, I would think they probably won't keep their money in this country for too long.

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by xpl0sive

I think this program will be back. They've "cancelled" it before. Years ago this program used to only require them to lend the Government $250,000. Then they raised it to $500,000. Then they "cancelled" it and brought it back silently, raising the required amount to $800,000. I'm sure this is just a play by the current government before the elections, they will bring the program back and probably raise the requirement again.

Feds took away the 5-year tax holiday immigration trust as well in the budget. I doubt F is screwing around this time.

[Traum]

Policy changes depending on needs of the country and the sentiments of the electorate. Right now, I think it is fair to say that cities such as Vancouver and Toronto are hard hit by the unrealistic RE prices, and stoppage of these high rolling Mainland Chinese immigrants is at a minimum an excellent headlight-generating and brownie point earning policy. I cannot tell how much of an effect this will actually have at the market level, but I suspect the move will at least earn the Conservatives some votes from the typical non-Mainland Chinese voter.

[4444]

Originally Posted by xpl0sive

I think this program will be back. They've "cancelled" it before. Years ago this program used to only require them to lend the Government $250,000. Then they raised it to $500,000. Then they "cancelled" it and brought it back silently, raising the required amount to $800,000. I'm sure this is just a play by the current government before the elections, they will bring the program back and probably raise the requirement again.

i disagree with you on the basis that the support for cancelling the program is sound, that is, that the majority of people entering the country under this program show no positive benefit to the nation, so why sell off our residency, disrespecting all residents and citizens who worked hard to immigrate here for no net benefit to the country.

i definitely think it is a good idea to cancel, or at least significantly change the program - an $800K interest free loan for 5 years is no 'cost' to enter the country. given it's a risk free investment, the opportunity cost is 1.5% p.a. (based on a 5 year US treasury yield), or $60K - $60K to buy residency for you and your family - fucking bargain of the century if you live in most shit countries and have loads of assets and want to protect them

to align interests of both the country and those that truly want to move to canada, AND BE A CANADIAN, it should cost $800K to enter the country for you, your 1 spouse and your children. that's it, no one else, $800K goes to government, you never see it again, not your money anymore, welcome to canada - that sounds fair to me if you want to circumvent what most others go through (i.e. being of working age, being skilled in an in demand industry/skill)

our immigration policy needs A LOT of work - every immigrant should, over a period of time, provide a net benefit to the country through taxes paid (over a 10-15 year time frame, for example, as kids do have to go to school, but then they become working/tax paying adults)

[4444]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

What the story doesn't mention is what the rich Chinese who've already bought one or more properties in vancouver in anticipation that their applications would eventually get processed are going to do. Since they can't take advantage of all the benefits that are made available to a Canadian resident or citizen such as sending their kids to local schools, I would think they probably won't keep their money in this country for too long.

doesn't that just show the main drive for some people is to just move money from a risk jurisdiction to a safe jurisdiction.

if i were applying under this program, would i, as a logical, rational person buy a place before i move (unless i was buying as an investment) - no fucking way... to me, this reads as though these people saw the program as an easy route, a 'gimmie'

i really have no feelings for these people at all - the only thing that annoys me is that greaseball realtors made money from them. i hate realtors

[Lomac]

Originally Posted by 4444

to align interests of both the country and those that truly want to move to canada, AND BE A CANADIAN, it should cost $800K to enter the country for you, your 1 spouse and your children. that's it, no one else, $800K goes to government, you never see it again, not your money anymore, welcome to canada - that sounds fair to me if you want to circumvent what most others go through (i.e. being of working age, being skilled in an in demand industry/skill)

So... a revival of the Head Tax then?

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Lomac

So... a revival of the Head Tax then?

As I understood it, the head tax was discriminatory because it specifically and universally targeted a racial group -- the Chinese. Legalities aside, if a hefty sum was charged to rich immigrants as part of some sort of investor immigration program, that would likely not be viewed as racially discriminatory because it'd universally apply to anyone from any racial background.

Conceptually, I disagree with a policy like that because to me, that is still buying your way into a Canadian citizenship. Instead of being purchased, I'd say that our Canadian passports ought to be earned. Money should not be the determining factor.