Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[EvoFire]

Originally Posted by Hakkaboy

Let's just agree to disagree because I think that the supply constraint is over-blowned, and that the massive capital appreciation seen previously is driving the demand and FOMO behaviour, which then the current perceived supply cannot meet. Obviously covid has made listings more scarce than before, but let's just talk about just slightly before the listings crunch and into the post-covid world.

Here's a scenario:

If a crappy shack in east van listed for $1.7M, would you buy it? Your answer will probably be yes or maybe if you can actually afford it. Now, let's think about the reason why you would buy it. Is it because you think that if you do not act now, that this same shack will cost you $2M instead? Or do you really think that normal people should be paying $6,000 mortgages for a house that needs a lot of work?

Now, if you know that at most, this same shack will probably still cost $1.75M to $1.8M in 5 years time, will you that change your answer?

I'm willing to bet that answer is yes, unless you are really rich and just looking for a teardown to build your dream house. But let's just ignore those for now and focus on regular joes who will be paying those $6K payments...for a shack.

I mentioned this before, I truly believe that the reason why people are willing to spend these absurd amount of money, or even willing to "slum" it out now by buying a detached now and renting our 3/4 of their place in order to meet the mortgage payments are only doing so because the capital appreciation factor aka FOMO. Take that away, and there will not be as many people trying to rush out and get what they can while they still can type of mentality.

Again, your understanding of economics is sound, but let's just disagree on the fundamentals that I believe this is an artificial demand issue rather than purely a supply issue.

Now, if I really want to make prices go down fast, I would make it a law to cap the maximum total mortgage amount to be at 5 x income. This would suck for current homeowners who bought in the last 5 years, but at least more people will have better disposable income and can spend elsewhere in the economy lol

So we agree on economic principles, so that's out of the way.

Your scenario is actually pretty close to mine. We just bought a 2m "shack" in Vancouver last year. Definition of shack varies but it needed a good amount of work to meet my wife's standards, and it had some questionable renos (read cheap) done about a decade ago.
We aren't rich(bcrdukes is gonna come and disagree with me lol), we can afford this but it's tight, and I didn't have to sell my toys.
We needed more space and my rational was it wasn't gonna drop and we need a bigger place anyways. We aren't renting 3/4 of it out but we were planning to rent the basement out. The house is also planning for the future when my parents may not be fit to live on their own anymore and I have space to take them in. I'm not planning to build a laneway house because I want my garage to do my garage-y things.

The supply issue is real, and only going to get more real in the next 5 years. I'm in tech, and the tech sector is growing in Vancouver. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Shopify are all major players or will be major players, that's not counting the smaller firms or startups or remote offices opening in Vancouver. Vancouver doesn't have the talent to fill all those positions and there will be a lot of import talent, and all that import talent will need to live somewhere.
That's not counting immigration. If you still think supply isn't the real issue that's fine, we can agree to disagree.

Your idea of capping mortgage is only going to put a small dent in the market as we with a 2m purchase fall just outside of that bracket you prescribed. Most of RS would probably fall in that bracket. All it'll do is just hasten wealth transfer from parent/grandparents to kids/grandkids. You underestimate the amount of stupid money sitting around in Vancouver. And the less privileged will continue to get priced out. Like I said in the previous post, blanket policies don't work and you need to target the right demographics and groups specifically. What would make a small dent AND help entry level is raising capital gains tax from 50% of real estate gains to 100% on non-principal residence transactions. I don't even understand why that loophole exists in the first place. Actually I do, rich ppl.

[donk.]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

Nearly half of British Columbians say they're $200 away from insolvency: poll

But that hasn’t stopped many from spending freely. More than any province, 15% of British Columbians said deals and Black Friday offers lured them—a near doubling over last year.

This right here, summs up the global market

I can't afford to pay rent, or buy a condo because the downpayment is too big, and it's not fair!! But I need the new iPhone 17, my decaf latte soy no cream vegan 6$ coffees, and the black friday 6 months no payment plan at Toyota

[winson604]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

May I ask what area RS was snickering at?

Putting on my detective hat my first gut was River District but then he said Metro Vancouver instead of Vancouver. People never really call Vancouver proper Metro Vancouver lol.

[rb]

^ pretty sure Traum was talking about the tri-cities (port moody, Coquitlam, poco). Lived here all of my life. It was always looked down on before because it was so far from the Vancouver and Richmond.

Life out here has changed quite a bit. The perk of living this way was that there were never too many lines up, always plenty of parking everywhere you went and most stores always had stock of what you wanted/needed... Oh, and the c-lai / mainlander segment of the population was quite low.

[bcrdukes]

Originally Posted by EvoFire

We aren't rich(bcrdukes is gonna come and disagree with me lol)

You got that right!

Poor and "We just bought a $2M home" do not go together in the same sentence!

[whitev70r]

Originally Posted by rb

^ pretty sure Traum was talking about the tri-cities (port moody, Coquitlam, poco). Lived here all of my life. It was always looked down on before because it was so far from the Vancouver and Richmond.

Life out here has changed quite a bit. The perk of living this way was that there were never too many lines up, always plenty of parking everywhere you went and most stores always had stock of what you wanted/needed... Oh, and the c-lai / mainlander segment of the population was quite low.

I'd live in Port Moody in a heartbeat ... Ioco, Rocky Point, near the water, nice quaint St. John Street, Brewery, Pajo's, Belcarra, extension of the Millenium Line ... and close to Coquitlam Center.

[Tapioca]

It was Port Moody.

The market interest and numbers today speak for themselves.

[Traum]

Was I snickering at a particular area, esp in recent posts? You'd have to remind me which post it was so that I'd have some context.

But if I specifically wrote "Metro Vancouver" instead of just "Vancouver", then I would be describing the whole Metro Vancouver / GVRD that includes all the municipalities. Using "CoV" would obviously be limited to just the City of Vancouver where the useless Kennedy Stewart is mayor. And "Vancouver" by itself would depend on context since it is such a vague term lol~

Originally Posted by winson604

Putting on my detective hat my first gut was River District but then he said Metro Vancouver instead of Vancouver. People never really call Vancouver proper Metro Vancouver lol.

Originally Posted by rb

^ pretty sure Traum was talking about the tri-cities (port moody, Coquitlam, poco). Lived here all of my life. It was always looked down on before because it was so far from the Vancouver and Richmond.

Life out here has changed quite a bit. The perk of living this way was that there were never too many lines up, always plenty of parking everywhere you went and most stores always had stock of what you wanted/needed... Oh, and the c-lai / mainlander segment of the population was quite low.

I worked in the Tri-Cities for a few years, briefly lived there for a bit, and I like it a lot! Eons ago when I was completely clueless, I used to think it was too far from Vancouver / Richmond too. But that changed very quickly once I started working there.

Honestly if it wasn't for my family's support network being in Vancouver, it would have been the place I choose to live in.

[westopher]

Port Moody is my fave of the burbs other than North van. I’d just struggle with proximity to the NS mountains.

[Liquid_o2]

Port Moody is great. Wife and I seriously considered buying out there five years ago. Prices were definitely different then - even though it already had basically the same stuff as it has now.

The deciding factor for us was that it was far from our jobs (Vancouver and Richmond) and relatively far from our families and friends.

The last thing you want to be doing is constantly driving around all week and weekend.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Traum

Was I snickering at a particular area, esp in recent posts? You'd have to remind me which post it was so that I'd have some context.

But if I specifically wrote "Metro Vancouver" instead of just "Vancouver", then I would be describing the whole Metro Vancouver / GVRD that includes all the municipalities. Using "CoV" would obviously be limited to just the City of Vancouver where the useless Kennedy Stewart is mayor. And "Vancouver" by itself would depend on context since it is such a vague term lol~




I worked in the Tri-Cities for a few years, briefly lived there for a bit, and I like it a lot! Eons ago when I was completely clueless, I used to think it was too far from Vancouver / Richmond too. But that changed very quickly once I started working there.

Honestly if it wasn't for my family's support network being in Vancouver, it would have been the place I choose to live in.

I don't recall you snickering, but I recall that you had a beef with the former mayor because they approved the Platform development which blocked your view.

For clarification, I recall posts that dampened my views of the municipality because of the value proposition I saw 5 years ago. Perhaps snickering was the not most appropriate term in hindsight.

[donk.]

Il also add in that pomo is my favorite place in all of GVRD to live. Lived in bby, Langley, Vancouver.
I'm biased as I grew up in pomo

15 minute drive to the lakes in summer after work, rocky point park at midnight with the howl of flavelle mill, everyone useto say hello to each other on the street (not anymore after all the towers)
Only reason I left, is the same as others, I spent 5 years driving to Vancouver and back, and had enough burning 600 hours a year in traffic

[Liquid_o2]

So a week ago I was talking about mortgage renewal and you guys gave some good advice.

I just spoke with my mortgage broker this morning, and now I am even more confused!

Fixed rates are about 2.8% / 2.9%. We are up for renewal in November, but he says it isn't worth breaking our mortgage right now and re-financing because even if rates go up in the next 3 to 4 months, the increase in interest (say it is 3.2% at the time that we sign) would be similar to us paying the 3 month fee to break the mortgage now.

Isn't this a dangerous game depending on how quickly the rates go up? Especially if we want to buy another more expensive place and port of the mortgage over in the future?

[6thGear.]

Originally Posted by winson604

Putting on my detective hat my first gut was River District but then he said Metro Vancouver instead of Vancouver. People never really call Vancouver proper Metro Vancouver lol.

I know a few members here snickered at River District and as someone who started living in this area in the 2nd complex built its easily attracting tons of people. Prices for a new 1bd at Avalon3 is starting at low $600k. In comparison we bought our 2 bed mid 2020 pandemic for $620k. Personally think $600k for a 1bd is nuts especially when I bought mine for $320k and my first condo in S.surrey/Delta for $190k

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

I don't recall you snickering, but I recall that you had a beef with the former mayor because they approved the Platform development which blocked your view.

For clarification, I recall posts that dampened my views of the municipality because of the value proposition I saw 5 years ago. Perhaps snickering was the not most appropriate term in hindsight.

Yeah, that was in Port Moody with ex-mayor Mike Clay. The incident certainly left a bad taste with me regarding how municipal politics and democracy "works". As one can expect, all the neighbours in the vicinity (and not just my building) affected by the new build were livid and against the rezoning application to build higher than what was allowed (4 floors instead of 6). They showed up at the public hearings in person and via emails en masse, so their voices and oppositions were known at every stage of the hearing. But City Council rolled it through after dragging the process along over 2 years, with the developer bringing in a handful of bogus representation from the public that didn't even live anywhere close to Port Moody. It was an absolute farce and a mockery of the democratic process.

At least Clay got canned in the following election. But then the next mayor got into a sexual assault allegation scandal.

[6thGear.]

Originally Posted by Liquid_o2

So a week ago I was talking about mortgage renewal and you guys gave some good advice.

I just spoke with my mortgage broker this morning, and now I am even more confused!

Fixed rates are about 2.8% / 2.9%. We are up for renewal in November, but he says it isn't worth breaking our mortgage right now and re-financing because even if rates go up in the next 3 to 4 months, the increase in interest (say it is 3.2% at the time that we sign) would be similar to us paying the 3 month fee to break the mortgage now.

Isn't this a dangerous game depending on how quickly the rates go up? Especially if we want to buy another more expensive place and port of the mortgage over in the future?

Your bank has already forecasted what the potential rates will be come your renewal. I believe most banks will start your renewal 2-3 months prior to renewal date. Rate increases will come in increments but how much per time BOC has apparently been tight lipped on it. Have you tried shopping around? Some mortgage brokers claim they'll shop around for you but they usually stick with the ones that's giving the biggest commission to them.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Liquid_o2

So a week ago I was talking about mortgage renewal and you guys gave some good advice.

I just spoke with my mortgage broker this morning, and now I am even more confused!

Fixed rates are about 2.8% / 2.9%. We are up for renewal in November, but he says it isn't worth breaking our mortgage right now and re-financing because even if rates go up in the next 3 to 4 months, the increase in interest (say it is 3.2% at the time that we sign) would be similar to us paying the 3 month fee to break the mortgage now.

Isn't this a dangerous game depending on how quickly the rates go up? Especially if we want to buy another more expensive place and port of the mortgage over in the future?

The spread between variable and fixed rates is fairly large. Therefore, it will be a while before you see variable mortgages in the 2.5% range.

Even with the current forecast of interest rate increases, it might make sense to renew with a variable.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by 6thGear.

I know a few members here snickered at River District and as someone who started living in this area in the 2nd complex built its easily attracting tons of people. Prices for a new 1bd at Avalon3 is starting at low $600k. In comparison we bought our 2 bed mid 2020 pandemic for $620k. Personally think $600k for a 1bd is nuts especially when I bought mine for $320k and my first condo in S.surrey/Delta for $190k

The single biggest issue I see with River District is vehicular access coming into / out of the area, as well as the level of public transit support for the area. The streets are narrow everywhere, and the hills very steep from Kerr and to the west of that.

Residents complain about the lack of schools and the delay of community center construction, and those are absolutely legitimate complains. A friend lives in the Oppenheimer (elementary) school catchment, and he tells me the whole River District is zoned under Oppenheimer. Naturally, that spells disaster since the number of kids that needs schooling far outstrips the available space.

As far as community convenience is concerned, I actually think River District does pretty well. Grocery stores, liquor store (and it's a really good one too!), restaurants, banks.

[Liquid_o2]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

The spread between variable and fixed rates is fairly large. Therefore, it will be a while before you see variable mortgages in the 2.5% range.

Even with the current forecast of interest rate increases, it might make sense to renew with a variable.

Yah variable is still 1.3% to 1.45%, while fixed is 2.8%. That is a huge spread. Even with six or eight increases by Bank of Canada, hard to say how that will play out.

I guess we will sit tight and see what happens over the next few months. If fixed rates continue to increase, might make sense to take a bit of risk on and go variable.

[6thGear.]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

The spread between variable and fixed rates is fairly large. Therefore, it will be a while before you see variable mortgages in the 2.5% range.

Even with the current forecast of interest rate increases, it might make sense to renew with a variable.

My vote goes to variable. Rates are still so low.

Originally Posted by Traum

The single biggest issue I see with River District is vehicular access coming into / out of the area, as well as the level of public transit support for the area. The streets are narrow everywhere, and the hills very steep from Kerr and to the west of that.

Residents complain about the lack of schools and the delay of community center construction, and those are absolutely legitimate complains. A friend lives in the Oppenheimer (elementary) school catchment, and he tells me the whole River District is zoned under Oppenheimer. Naturally, that spells disaster since the number of kids that needs schooling far outstrips the available space.

As far as community convenience is concerned, I actually think River District does pretty well. Grocery stores, liquor store (and it's a really good one too!), restaurants, banks.

I was told VSB is the one that makes the decision on the school even though Wesgroup was to build it? Roads access I can agree with but there's still so much more construction to do still. This supposed 10 year plan looks more like a 15 yr plan to me. I'd say no more than 30% is actually constructed/ in process of construction

[Euro7r]

Originally Posted by Traum

The single biggest issue I see with River District is vehicular access coming into / out of the area, as well as the level of public transit support for the area. The streets are narrow everywhere, and the hills very steep from Kerr and to the west of that.

Residents complain about the lack of schools and the delay of community center construction, and those are absolutely legitimate complains. A friend lives in the Oppenheimer (elementary) school catchment, and he tells me the whole River District is zoned under Oppenheimer. Naturally, that spells disaster since the number of kids that needs schooling far outstrips the available space.

As far as community convenience is concerned, I actually think River District does pretty well. Grocery stores, liquor store (and it's a really good one too!), restaurants, banks.

Agreed, if you don't have kids and don't take transit, it's a good spot. Parking is a bitch if you have an extra car or two, (in general parking is a bitch in Vancouver lol). I live there and street parking is non existence if you get home after 5:30pm, anytime before that you'll be able to still score a street parking spot. Luckily I work from home, so only need to have one vehicle that my Fiancé uses for work, I store my car at my parents to collect dust lol.

Then the parking lots undergound the buildings are fucking ass, it's narrow with so many blind spots, have to really be attentive and drive like a turtle. Cuz not everyone abides to driving slow in the parking lot.

1-bedrooms are going for like $600K-$700K these days, how the fuck do young people even get in unless they live further out East or got a wad of downpayment from parents?!

[winson604]

Originally Posted by 6thGear.

I know a few members here snickered at River District and as someone who started living in this area in the 2nd complex built its easily attracting tons of people. Prices for a new 1bd at Avalon3 is starting at low $600k. In comparison we bought our 2 bed mid 2020 pandemic for $620k. Personally think $600k for a 1bd is nuts especially when I bought mine for $320k and my first condo in S.surrey/Delta for $190k

River District was and potentially still is a very interesting area. When I put down for my presale back in 2015 or 16 I forget now prices like they are today were already steadily rising for quite a while. River District at the time was still a newish concept and prices for Van anyway were the lowest, depending on the project I think it was as low as high $400's per sq to $500 something. We all know the pros and cons of the area, no need to get into that. Ultimately, I couldn't do the whole "condo" life style and their so called townhomes were those condo style townhomes. I ended up settling not far in the Killarney though for a little more money but completely different vibe and no regrets so far.

[van_driver]

Originally Posted by Liquid_o2

Yah variable is still 1.3% to 1.45%, while fixed is 2.8%. That is a huge spread. Even with six or eight increases by Bank of Canada, hard to say how that will play out.

I guess we will sit tight and see what happens over the next few months. If fixed rates continue to increase, might make sense to take a bit of risk on and go variable.

market will die once rates start increasing. People forget how dead the market was once rates were increased in mid 2018 and it lasted till end of 2019. Would be rare to see anyone at an open house

[Harvey Specter]

JP Morgan suggested that BoC will do 5 rate increase before the year ends. Danger is rates jump beyond what they were pre-COVID and values start coming down. A lot of people could be holding the bag but good news for anyone sitting on the sidelines with cash because they'll be plenty of deals.

[PeanutButter]

Originally Posted by Traum

The single biggest issue I see with River District is vehicular access coming into / out of the area, as well as the level of public transit support for the area. The streets are narrow everywhere, and the hills very steep from Kerr and to the west of that.

Residents complain about the lack of schools and the delay of community center construction, and those are absolutely legitimate complains. A friend lives in the Oppenheimer (elementary) school catchment, and he tells me the whole River District is zoned under Oppenheimer. Naturally, that spells disaster since the number of kids that needs schooling far outstrips the available space.

As far as community convenience is concerned, I actually think River District does pretty well. Grocery stores, liquor store (and it's a really good one too!), restaurants, banks.

The Fraserview area is full of empty nesters, so I don't think there are many families with children left, but the river district is full of families so i can see how that will be an issue for services.

We call the riverdistrct the poor man's seawall (just as a joke). It's a really nice walk and on a few occasions people play instruments there live. It's a really cool vibe out there. I like it. But a little out of the way from most things.