Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[minoru_tanaka]

Originally Posted by quasi

I like my cookie cutter house that I paid way to much monkey for in my cookie cutter neighborhood working my Mon-Fri job with my limited holidays and my monthly budget. Would I like more? Yeah I would. Am I willing to sacrifice what I have and take a chance to obtain it? Probably not. I'm not rich, I'll never be rich and I'm OK with that. The kids are the only thing that are really important to me, as long as they are taken care of, live in a safe environment is all that is really important.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by minoru_tanaka

Not even going to edit, so much better this way.

[godwin]

It depends on how long you wait and what you want.. if Cdn depreciates a bit more (say another 10-20%) and freehold real estate keeps appreciating 5-10% a year.. it will take less than decade for the property to appreciate by 2/3. (of course whether it continues the trend or not is another story). Don't hope opportunities that you had missed to repeat themselves, focus on the present and future instead.

The key difference from 70s - 80s is money flow much easier from 1 part of the world to another. So there are more buying power (as we are seeing now a lot of the money are decamping from emerging markets and moving back to US stock market). Even within Canada.. Most of my neighbors in Coal Harbour (relatively high end townhouses) are Albertans just get the townhouse as a holiday home for their extended family (like kids, grandkids etc), that's before the exwives and husbands etc to use when they are in town. I see a growth market for good personable and dependable house cleaning / sitting business. With the economy recovering, the divorce rates will return to normal, that really drives a lot of condo sales.

As I have said a few times already, if your had spent most of life in BC and your income can't support you buying a place locally.. then travel outside of BC to see the world a bit more and earn a bit more. Believe it or not, there are a ton of machine shop openings up and down the west coast (my friends and I call it from Boeing to Boeing because the demand stretches from Boeing Seattle to Boeing Long Beach), because Americans are really bad at simple trig and tolerance calculations. Living cost quite a bit lower than Vancouver, not to mention you get decent union wages and stock options, enough that I know there are quite a few retired Boeing machinists that retire in Vancouver West.

Originally Posted by duc_evo_sp

Can say that I will be buying real estate when it corrects to 2/3rds of what it is today.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by 4444

fair point, due diligence is always important, even when finding a landlord (though it can still go wrong).

if my partner said 'we must buy a place' - we'd have a sit down, simple as that, and we'd compromise.

never would I give in on this, unless there was an equally beneficial compromise on her side...

weak men allow women to make decisions - compromise is the only way

All relationships involve compromise.

She puts up with your irrational hobbies (like sports cars and sports), she gives your oral sex every once in a while, and she delivers your children. You save a bit of money and put the rest into renting a home she feels is worthy of entertaining people, or you buy that starter home to build your equity.

Or, you treat every decision in life as a financial calculation and cut your ties with your partner. Roam the world, make money, and pay for sex and intimacy when the need arises. Then, hope that when your body starts to give up that you have enough in savings to pay for a nice retirement home with home nurses to tend to your needs until you march into the sunset.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

All relationships involve compromise.

She puts up with your irrational hobbies (like sports cars and sports), she gives your oral sex every once in a while, and she delivers your children. You save a bit of money and put the rest into renting a home she feels is worthy of entertaining people, or you buy that starter home to build your equity.

Or, you treat every decision in life as a financial calculation and cut your ties with your partner. Roam the world, make money, and pay for sex and intimacy when the need arises. Then, hope that when your body starts to give up that you have enough in savings to pay for a nice retirement home with home nurses to tend to your needs until you march into the sunset.

same mistake as everyone. i thought your agument would have been security of location and a place to really place your roots, not 'build equity'

trust me, i'm building WAY more equity than an equivalent who buy a place right now, rent vs. own the same place (even if said person bought a shittier place, i'd still build more equity based on long term returns of a diversified portfolio vs. long term returns on real estate).

now, a factor is if ppl rent, they blow the rest of their money - not my problem, i can't be responsible for idiots who don't know how to save/invest.

also, if you think women find owning a house impressive, you're after a simpleton woman, my partner finds it much more impressive to have hundreds of thousands of liquid investments for our future together.

different folks, different strokes, i guess

[Z3guy]

This thread has turned from the pros/cons to investing in greater vancouver real estate to a platform to showcase how smart and rich I am! hahaha!

[Ducdesmo]

Originally Posted by Z3guy

This thread has turned from the pros/cons to investing in greater vancouver real estate to a platform to showcase how smart and rich I am! hahaha!

It's mainly just one guy lol

[sonick]

CMHC may alter mortgage insurance terms Friday - Business - CBC News

Speculations say it might be change (i.e. increase) in mortgage insurance terms, which would make it more difficult for first-time home buyers with < 20% down to buy a home.

[godwin]

I think it is a step in the right direction.. They are trying to prick the bubble without bursting it too quickly.

The incentive is to make people save more to pay up front rather than participate as quick as you can on shaky financial ground. Besides it is the 4th year of TFSA (at a market low point too), people who are really saving (at least 20k), should have made plenty from that by now, even if they are risky the funds should be able to cover it.

Remember CMHC is basically the tax payer, any rule to tighten / secure it is a good thing for everyone.

Originally Posted by sonick

CMHC may alter mortgage insurance terms Friday - Business - CBC News

Speculations say it might be change (i.e. increase) in mortgage insurance terms, which would make it more difficult for first-time home buyers with < 20% down to buy a home.

[xpl0sive]

^it is a good thing to protect the public, but it will not affect the "bubble" in any way. people who are responsible for creating the "bubble" are not those with less than 20% down and who require mortgage insurance.

[z3german]

My family is looking at buying a appt in Richmond ~$340 000, because we have the 20% down for that.

Can anyone chime in with some advice? Ive been telling my mom to look at other cities as well but she really likes Richmond.

You guys feel its a pretty safe investment for the 5-10 years when we might save up more, sell it and upgrade to a townhouse or something? I dont know much about housing stuff, and my mom is one of those "buying is always a good investment" types.

Thanks for dealing with my noobness!

[godwin]

It really depends on your purpose for it.. what your objectives and options and most importantly where and which development you are looking at. In my book the really "good" investment in the lower mainland these days is land. Without the land, housing is really like a car, it depreciates over time.

You might want to do some homework by researching what is the potential rent range you can get.. and create a few models.

Do it for the same "other cities" you have been telling her and compare.

Originally Posted by z3german

My family is looking at buying a appt in Richmond ~$340 000, because we have the 20% down for that.

Can anyone chime in with some advice? Ive been telling my mom to look at other cities as well but she really likes Richmond.

You guys feel its a pretty safe investment for the 5-10 years when we might save up more, sell it and upgrade to a townhouse or something? I dont know much about housing stuff, and my mom is one of those "buying is always a good investment" types.

Thanks for dealing with my noobness!

[sonick]

You say you plan on selling it and 'upgrading' to a townhouse; how do you expect to fund the upgrade? Solely by your savings? Because I wouldn't go in expecting any real gain in equity from a Richmond apartment within at least the next 5 years.

[Traum]

Whereabouts is the apartment in Richmond? How many units are there in the complex, and how many other complexes in the nearby area?

Personally, as convenient as Richmond may be, I am not a fan of buying RE properties there now. As primary residence, in particular, I have no desire to consider anything west of Shell Road. Anywhere close to No. 3 Road is a traffic nightmare for much of the day, every day of the week (and esp on the weekend). Density of the condos there is already quite high, and more new stuff are still getting built, so when it comes time to sell in 5-10 years, the buyer has no shortage of choices from both the new and used market, and you'd have a LOT of competition to fight against.

[Ludepower]

Seems like your parents are helping you out. So take advantage of it.
Buy what you can afford and the most convenient location.
Owning a place is a forced way of saving.
Just dont expect to gain from it in the foreseeable future.
Avoid this thread and all the negativity.

[z3german]

Thanks for the advice so far guys.

We just went to see a place on moffatt road, Colony Bay. It had the best SQ/ftage of everything we looked at so far so we might go ahead with it. Everything was clean, parking was convenient, among other things.

The idea for us is to just start somewhere, instead of throwing money at something that will get us nothing in the end. We have been renting this same place for just over 10 years, so the idea my mom has is that we could have been 10 years into the mortgage.

In future, if I move to Singapore (10 years time) is to rent the place out to someone so I can have property here since I love it in Vancouver. The idea is to have SOMETHING here in Vancouver.

In terms of upgrading, not really sure how it works but I always had the impression that I would just save up so I can come up with a bigger $ downpayment to cover 400-500k homes. Sell the apt for same or more value than I got it, and use that to upgrade. Am I mistaken?

As I said before, we might shoot for this apt, anyone have any strong opinions they want to share for us to maybe reconsider? Im not doubting the place or anything, I just want to learn more about this whole property game.

[sonick]

Originally Posted by z3german

In terms of upgrading, not really sure how it works but I always had the impression that I would just save up so I can come up with a bigger $ downpayment to cover 400-500k homes. Sell the apt for same or more value than I got it, and use that to upgrade. Am I mistaken?

The part in bold is the key. This was the case in your mom's generation and maybe 10, 15 years ago. However in this environment you can't go in counting on the expectation that you will get more (or even the same) value when you plan on upgrading in the next 5 to 10 years.

Plus don't forget about the taxes, fees and commissions when you are buying and selling the place. Not even counting inflation.

It all depends on your expectations. If you simply want to have a place in Vancouver you can always come back to and call home, then by all means go for it if you have the means; especially if you have help from your parents.

However, if you have the expectation that the place will go up in value and you can easily 'upgrade' to a townhouse down the road, all signs seem to point to disappointment down the road.

And if the case is you want to save up to, have you done the math to see how much you can save if you rented AND invested the difference you would've paid in down payment, mortgage & ownership fees for the same time period? In comparison to having a large bulk of your assets bogged down by a mortgage, ownership fees, and a risky real estate market?

[Bonka]

Originally Posted by z3german

We just went to see a place on moffatt road, Colony Bay. It had the best SQ/ftage of everything we looked at so far so we might go ahead with it. Everything was clean, parking was convenient, among other things.

All things remaining the same (housing prices, inflation rates, interest, etc), you will not make money buying residential today if you're strictly relying on market appreciation and your game is buying and holding.

A reminder about buying residential for the purposes of renting in this market. They are all negative cash flow in the point of view of maximizing generated net revenue vs. minimum investment. Dumping a bigger down to alter cashflow returns from red into black merely puts you at greater risk by tying up liquid funds that could be used to leverage elsewhere with realisable gains. Many people blur this line even more by being hands-on with their rental property doing minimum wage work. If you're expecting to re-locate in the future now renting might still be the best viable option, especially if you're willing to make your money work for you.

I'm familiar with the Colony Bay and Colony Bay North complex (separate stratas). If you're prepared to go to the next step, confirm their rental limit as last I remember one of the stratas only allowed for 1 rental unit; that strata is predominantly an older demographic and thus are owner occupied. Also, within that complex sale prices have remained flat for the last 5 years after bottoming and I wouldn't expect that number to go up anytime soon where you'll enjoy any gains.

Good info posted though. In this market, you are paying a premium for home ownership. It's a matter what your timeline looks like moving forward, what is more important to you and what side are you willing to lose on, the financial side or everything else.

[z3german]

Originally Posted by Bonka

what is more important to you and what side are you willing to lose on, the financial side or everything else.

Thanks for the advice for the 5 year thing, if we do decide to shoot for it I will keep this in mind when discussing pricing.

Mixed feelings about it all, honestly just feel stuck. $350k is nothing in this market, would love to move somewhere more affordable but family can't switch jobs as easily as me. After getting mixed opinions from you guys maybe its one of those things where you have to shoot and live with it, than dwell on all the possibilities out there.

[Euro7r]

With the mass amount of information on this thread, I've skimmed read, please correct me if I am wrong anywhere. With different points of view, pros/cons. My question would be, if you had to stay in Greater Vancouver and had to buy property. Where would you buy and what type of property to live in?

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Euro7r

With the mass amount of information on this thread, I've skimmed read, please correct me if I am wrong anywhere. With different points of view, pros/cons. My question would be, if you had to stay in Greater Vancouver and had to buy property. Where would you buy and what type of property to live in?

As always, the answer is "it depends". It depends on what you can afford, where you work, what life stage you are in, what your priorities in life are, etc. And then it'll come back to the same question of why you "have to buy". There is no set formula and no definite answers.

[sonick]

CMHC raising mortgage insurance premiums, average of 15%:

CMHC to hike mortgage insurance premiums May 1 - The Globe and Mail

However will probably have little impact:

“For the average Canadian home buyer requiring CMHC insured financing, the higher premium will result in an increase of approximately $5 to their monthly mortgage payment. This is not expected to have a material impact on the housing market.”

[Traum]

If there is no impact to the insurance hike, then that's the point? (aside from increasing revenue for the agency, that is)

[Carl Johnson]

the direction of the move is probably more important than the actual increases. CMHC hasn't raised the insurance premium in 20+ years so this just tells you what the feds think where the housing market is at today.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

the direction of the move is probably more important than the actual increases. CMHC hasn't raised the insurance premium in 20+ years so this just tells you what the feds think where the housing market is at today.

Well said

Action wouldn't be being taken, regardless of scope, if everything of peaches and cream.

It's another tiny step to try and slow this puppy down. But ppl are too stupid and will keep buying until rates rise, sadly given the terrible economic conditions in Canada, doing that will drive us into recession, so for now, everyone just sits in limbo.

One question, does everyone agree that equities, over the long term, outperform real estate. I'm interested in what the mindset is here.

Generally speaking, real estate follows inflation, equities get about 8-10% long term avg (reinvested dividends). Let's not be blindsighted by a recent one off run up in Canada - things aren't different anywhere in the long run