Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Hondaracer]

You know that franklin one was just overflowing with garbage and crap prior to the listing photos. No work ever done besides emergency maintenance etc. lol

[SkunkWorks]

Lol saw the pics of the franklin one and immediately knew what it'd smell like.

Back to high school days chilling at my buddy's house with hisom/por por hard at work brewing something in the kitchen

[donk.]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Here’s a couple listings for you guys lol

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...reet-vancouver

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...reet-vancouver

I dunno about that first listing...... It has 4 8's in it
It's either gotta be 3, or 6

[Alpine]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Here’s a couple listings for you guys lol

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...reet-vancouver

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...reet-vancouver

They'll probably get something around those list prices and we'll see a duplex pop up asking $2m each side lol.

[supafamous]

https://twitter.com/stevesaretsky/st...525024256?s=21

The Bank of Canada says an increase in supply is desperately needed to restore balance to the housing market.

I can assure you, a lot of supply would suddenly surface with much higher interest rates.

I agree a tonne with the first line and only sorta agree with the second - I think this is nearly all a supply problem - too many people want a home and there are simply not enough homes.

[EvoFire]

Mainly only applies to Vancouver and Toronto though, I don't think Calgary Edmonton or Regina are that insane.

[Eff-1]

If we're ever going to get out of this mess, the city needs to embrace density. And with density comes shitty parking. It's a fact. But density is inevitable and if we keep avoiding it, we're only going to get more and more fucked around housing affordability.

The City of North Van took on the idea of gentle density back in 2014 and since they they've converted hundreds of single family lots into townhomes and condos. And yeah, the parking in the neighbourhood sucks now. But the area itself is great. Tons of young families, a wonderful park/playground and green space, water views and super easy access to transit including rapid bus.

So yeah it's not so bad. Get on with it. So that our kids will have a fighting chance to afford a place and live in the city.

[TypeRNammer]

Originally Posted by supafamous

True, some parts are worse than others. I lived on the south side closer to 41st and most of those streets had tonnes of parking available while the north side (north of Kingsway) is much more crowded - streets like Duke tend to be packed.

Duke Street being packed is an understatement.

It's going to be an absolute gong show once those two low rise apartments are up and running.

One thing I found kind of funny is the single detached home that's wedged between the two low rise apartment buildings.

Then across the street another town house development I believe?

[Rallydrv]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

Vancouver mayor makes pitch to allow up to 6 affordable homes on a single-family lot

Isn't this the guy who didn't like duplex +.laneway concept when he came to the office?

[Manic!]

Looking at records of a house I bought in 2016.

4/15/2016 Sold C$372,600 (+20.6%) C$249/sqft
Source: Public Record
3/10/2016 Sold C$309,300 (+6.2%) C$207/sqft
Source: Public Record
5/2/2013 Sold C$291,000 C$195/sqft

The guy I bought it off made 60K in less than a month. Something seems fishy.

[Hehe]

Vancouver's new proposal is going to destroy Vancouver proper as we know it.

Their streets are tiny. Even major arteries such as Granville/Oak/Knight are tiny. If you had a truck in the middle lane, those who are on the side better hold their steering wheel tight because there's little to no room for error. You now inject twice the population, the street and traffic are going to be a mess.

Instead of making something so drastic, as I said in previous messages, they need to loose EVERYTHING as long as the infrastructure can support it. Then work on infrastructures. If there's no viable option to widen them, then find an area... say areas near PNE or all the light industrial zone just under the bridges... consolidate them (as there would be much fewer landowners to deal with) and design everything from scratch.

Every major world-class city has gone through similar remodel arrangements. (Manhattan when they built the Central Park and areas around it, Shanghai built Pudong... etc) I think it's time for Vancouver proper to start planning a mega project that's all new and not limited by old rules.

[donk.]

60k assuming no realtors, legal fees, and mortgage discharge were involved

Who's to say he didn't Reno x and y before you bought it, or just just flipped it to the next sucker as is

Alot of those records are not correct, I know my neighbor sold his condo in 2018, worth around 450k, and x months later, it showed up as sold for 350k. Maybe a tax loophole, realtor input error, or who knows what

[donk.]

On the topic of city planning

Being a city planner, is one of the most complex jobs on earth, some people don't even know about this title.
It's simply impossible to account for all x y and z's when trying to address something like zoning

Any of you who are into videogames on PC, go play city skylines, and you will understand a fraction, of how complex it is to "plan" a well built city, that makes everyone's wishes happy.

When you change one thing, making a house into a 6plex, this snowballs into parking issues, that snowballs into traffic > longer commute times > slowed good deliveries > slower construction times > housing supply drops > renters rampage due to low availability and higher rents > small businesses suffer due to less spending from renters > businesses close > some people lose their jobs > then they complain about high housing costs

Above as an example obviously, I never thought about any of that shit until I played the above videogame

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by donk.

60k assuming no realtors, legal fees, and mortgage discharge were involved

Who's to say he didn't Reno x and y before you bought it, or just just flipped it to the next sucker as is

Alot of those records are not correct, I know my neighbor sold his condo in 2018, worth around 450k, and x months later, it showed up as sold for 350k. Maybe a tax loophole, realtor input error, or who knows what

Zero reno's. We had told the owners multiple times and even sent realtors to house saying we would buy it but they did not want to sell. Then the husband died. I just hope the widow did not get scammed. She could of just knocked on our door and we would have bought it without any agents.

[bobbinka]

Originally Posted by donk.

On the topic of city planning

Being a city planner, is one of the most complex jobs on earth, some people don't even know about this title.
It's simply impossible to account for all x y and z's when trying to address something like zoning

Any of you who are into videogames on PC, go play city skylines, and you will understand a fraction, of how complex it is to "plan" a well built city, that makes everyone's wishes happy.

When you change one thing, making a house into a 6plex, this snowballs into parking issues, that snowballs into traffic > longer commute times > slowed good deliveries > slower construction times > housing supply drops > renters rampage due to low availability and higher rents > small businesses suffer due to less spending from renters > businesses close > some people lose their jobs > then they complain about high housing costs

Above as an example obviously, I never thought about any of that shit until I played the above videogame

That's why I build sewage dams, give them some real shit to be unhappy about.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Rallydrv

Isn't this the guy who didn't like duplex +.laneway concept when he came to the office?

No, that wasn't him. While I think he's a shitty mayor he has always been for more density.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Hehe

Vancouver's new proposal is going to destroy Vancouver proper as we know it.

Their streets are tiny. Even major arteries such as Granville/Oak/Knight are tiny. If you had a truck in the middle lane, those who are on the side better hold their steering wheel tight because there's little to no room for error. You now inject twice the population, the street and traffic are going to be a mess.

Oh please, let's skip the fear mongering. We're talking 2000 houses that are little more than mini-apartment buildings that only adds 2 living units to the current zoning. Most lots already have 2-3 units on them.

Vancouver proper has a population density of 5,400/sq km, Metro Van is at 900/sq km.

For reference here are the densest cities in the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...lation_density

By the time Vancouver has a chance to turn into a hellscape we'll be under water.

[Qmx323]

Originally Posted by donk.

On the topic of city planning

Being a city planner, is one of the most complex jobs on earth, some people don't even know about this title.
It's simply impossible to account for all x y and z's when trying to address something like zoning

Any of you who are into videogames on PC, go play city skylines, and you will understand a fraction, of how complex it is to "plan" a well built city, that makes everyone's wishes happy.

When you change one thing, making a house into a 6plex, this snowballs into parking issues, that snowballs into traffic > longer commute times > slowed good deliveries > slower construction times > housing supply drops > renters rampage due to low availability and higher rents > small businesses suffer due to less spending from renters > businesses close > some people lose their jobs > then they complain about high housing costs

Above as an example obviously, I never thought about any of that shit until I played the above videogame

Just start lowering taxes until the people are happy, do what you need to do, then jack the taxes back up!

[Euro7r]

Originally Posted by supafamous

Oh please, let's skip the fear mongering. We're talking 2000 houses that are little more than mini-apartment buildings that only adds 2 living units to the current zoning. Most lots already have 2-3 units on them.

Vancouver proper has a population density of 5,400/sq km, Metro Van is at 900/sq km.

For reference here are the densest cities in the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...lation_density

By the time Vancouver has a chance to turn into a hellscape we'll be under water.

I know my math sucks, but let's say regular street holds 10 house lots on one side. Say each lot parks 2 cars out in front on the street (20 cars). With this new zoning, it will allow more units on the lots. Say we even conservatively add an extra 10-15 cars additional, don't really think parking is sustainable. Just gonna be parking wars lol. Of course not all streets are like this and not everyone is going to be building 6 units onto their lots. Some streets are already packed to begin with.

[Great68]

God I couldn't imagine having one of those sixplex monstrosities next to and looming over me

[JDMDreams]

That's why they are taxing parking or pay parking. ??? Profit soon we can start selling parking spots for $500k like HK

Originally Posted by Euro7r

I know my math sucks, but let's say regular street holds 10 house lots on one side. Say each lot parks 2 cars out in front on the street (20 cars). With this new zoning, it will allow more units on the lots. Say we even conservatively add an extra 10-15 cars additional, don't really think parking is sustainable. Just gonna be parking wars lol. Of course not all streets are like this and not everyone is going to be building 6 units onto their lots. Some streets are already packed to begin with.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Euro7r

I know my math sucks, but let's say regular street holds 10 house lots on one side. Say each lot parks 2 cars out in front on the street (20 cars). With this new zoning, it will allow more units on the lots. Say we even conservatively add an extra 10-15 cars additional, don't really think parking is sustainable. Just gonna be parking wars lol. Of course not all streets are like this and not everyone is going to be building 6 units onto their lots. Some streets are already packed to begin with.

How bad parking is really varies by neighbourhood even if they have the same number of houses and the same number of people living there b/c it depends on things like walkability (lots of shops nearby), transit (lots of buses/skytrain nearby), and then on the life situation (have kids, retired, WFH etc).

My in-laws block (Fraser/41st right behind the Church's Chicken) has 15 houses on each size at 33' a pop so about 500ft of parking on both sides and figure you need 20' per car so you can park 25 cars on each side so already we don't have enough. Every house there has a minimum of 1 suite with a few having 2 suites (laneway) - that's somewhere between 60-75 families living on that block. (I can get parking every time I go visit either directly in front or directly across the street.)

The city is going to allow 2,000 of these 6 unit homes (we have a bit less than 40,000k SFH lots last I checked) so 1 out of every 20 houses could get converted - for this block let's say it's 2 of these six-plexes which means we add a maximum of 8 new families on that block bringing the family count up to a max of 83 or so families. If there's no parking requirement for the six-plex then worst case it's 12 more cars for that block - if they put 3 parking spots in each (what can fit for a 33' lot) then it's 6 more cars. My in-laws street can handle 6 cars no problem.

BUT...how fast will these homes show up?

If we use the laneway home adoption rate then we'll see about 1% adoption per year which means it'll take 10 years before they get them all built. So worst case it'll take 10 years to add 16,000 cars to our streets.

I bet it's no more than 4,000 more cars b/c most of these homes will be close to transit, be in walkable areas, and b/c the units are small most won't be car owners.

I think we can handle 4,000 more cars in the next 10 years in Vancouver.

[supafamous]

https://biv.com/article/2017/01/car-...city-vancouver

A bit more data on car ownership...

~270,000 cars registered in Vancouver
~670,000 people living in Vancouver
~26% of people in Vancouver had a car share subscription (likely no car)

I'd have to dig a bit further into the data but I don't think we can automatically assume that 1 unit of housing = 1 car especially when it comes to smaller units. We can assume larger homes (especially on the West side) will have more than 1 per housing unit but as income drops and you get into denser transit friendly areas it's going to be less than 1 car per housing unit.

[whitev70r]

I do think that reality will force people's behaviour change. If it requires someone driving around the block 15x's trying to find a parking space on the street, then eventually, people will transit or use car share programs, or move, or don't rent there, or if you HAVE to use a car, then don't buy in one of these multi family complexes.

[68style]

Well I am not doing the statisticians any favour with 8 cars and a motorcycle registered under my name... it's so bad when the autoplan guy puts my license in and it brings up my list he goes "Whoa" out loud and gets worried I don't remember which one is which plate wise hahaha