Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Hondaracer]

The Ukrainian refugees will surely be able to bid alongside the Chinese children driving their Avanentadors and G63’s

[Manic!]

Banning foreign buyers will not help.
The rich in Canada have too much money with nothing to spend it on/invest in. If you have money you don't want to by any business that requires labor because you can't find workers any you are going to run it yourself. So it gets dumped into real estate. A safe investment that has been making huge gains. But even real estate is becoming hard to buy because nothing is available.

You have lots of Canadians with millions of dollars in banks just sitting there.

[bobbinka]

Originally Posted by Manic!

You have lots of Canadians with millions of dollars in banks just sitting there.

Not this one.

[PeanutButter]

I just ran into an old friend today.

He's 41 y.o. He has two town houses and one condo in Surrey (He had a house in Vancouver that he sold and moved to Surrey and bought all three houses). He told me he just sold one of the town houses for $1M, which he paid ~$300k for originally.

I asked him why he sold the town house and he said the market feels toppy and he believes macro-economically real estate is going to drop because of interest rates, so he wanted to realize some profits and he said once the market corrects he'll get back in.

I was super happy for him and extremely impressed by his portfolio, but I questioned if it was risky for him to try and time the market like he's doing. He said the main reason was that he didn't want to work that hard anymore. The pandemic changed his perspective, so he cut back his working hours to four days a week and a max of five hours a day. He reads utility meters all over the city. He said that was a six figure job??? Seems high, but I didn't question him.

He has two boys 10 and 14 and a wife, so they're going to take the money and go on vacation and just not stress as much anymore.

I just thought that was a super cool encounter I had today and thought some of you might be interested.

[PeanutButter]

Originally Posted by Manic!

You have lots of Canadians with millions of dollars in banks just sitting there.

I don't know about "lots", but I know one of my aunts has about $300k in GIC's. She's been saving and she has never put money into the stock market because it's "gambling". If she only put some of that into equities back in the day, she would be a millionaire by now .

[Teriyaki]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

I don't know about "lots", but I know one of my aunts has about $300k in GIC's. She's been saving and she has never put money into the stock market because it's "gambling". If she only put some of that into equities back in the day, she would be a millionaire by now .

Used to work in banking. Can confirm. Don't underestimate the Chinatown Aunties. Slow and steady while wearing their grandkids hand-me downs. Don't even try to talk to them about the market. GIC's to the grave. I understand, they grew up in the very different time and it's shaped their investment outlook permanently.

On a semi-related note. Has anyone looked into installing a heat-pump in their residence? We're in a TH Strata so never looked much into it but we're getting notice that our old radiant floor heating is "past-expiry" and repairing it could be a very expensive figure.

Looks like there's 2 rebates. BC https://www.bchydro.com/powersmart/r...switching.html [/URL]and Federal (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy-effic...es-grant/23441), with the BC one seemingly much easier to attain? Would love to hear some first hand experience if anyones gone through the system.

[Sw0op]

There’s a boat load of money out there and on the sidelines. Not just Chinatown aunties.

The federal program is a mess. The hydro/fortis rebate I just went through and got my cheques in around 2 months. The federal one, which may be faster now, but took 7-8 months for them to just to even look at it…got approved a few days later and now I’m waiting for the cheque/rebate…I’m on month 9 now and honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes almost the full 12 months

I knew this was gonna be a struggle with the federal grant…good thing I knocked down a couple hundred on my reno to compensate for this waiting

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

He told me he just sold one of the town houses for $1M, which he paid ~$300k for originally.

...

so he wanted to realize some profits and he said once the market corrects he'll get back in.

This is a terrible strategy. In the long run, everything moves upwards - real estate, stocks, etc due to the natural effects of inflation. Therefore, on average, it moves upwards more often and in a larger amount than it does down. So in effect, you have a short window where if you get lucky, the market moves downward sharply and significantly enough to re-buy, but generally, if you don't get that, over time you are just further and further behind.

In real estate - that's doubly true. Given how expensive it is to buy and sell (realtor fees, property transfer taxes, legal, financing) - you need the market to crash a LOT to actually make this worthwhile. At least with your stocks, you can instantly buy/sell with negligible transaction costs which improves your odds that you might come out ahead with this gamble.

Just ask anybody who has been "waiting for the crash to buy" in Vancouver... every single year, they are more screwed, and further away. We bought our house in 2018 when the market took a SMALL decline - it helped us feel good, but the reality is the decline was far smaller than the amount it went up in the years before it. We were still far worse off for waiting (though this was due to not being able to afford it earlier, not trying to time the market).

He said the main reason was that he didn't want to work that hard anymore. The pandemic changed his perspective, so he cut back his working hours to four days a week and a max of five hours a day. He has two boys 10 and 14 and a wife, so they're going to take the money and go on vacation and just not stress as much anymore.

This is totally different, and it makes a lot more sense to sell for this reason.

-Mark

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by Teriyaki

Used to work in banking. Can confirm. Don't underestimate the Chinatown Aunties. Slow and steady while wearing their grandkids hand-me downs. Don't even try to talk to them about the market. GIC's to the grave. I understand, they grew up in the very different time and it's shaped their investment outlook permanently.

That kind of thing makes me sad - as you know, if they owned GICs their entire lives, they had less real money (purchasing power) every single year until they died. They lost money every year despite not understanding this since the actual number in their account went up.

Financial literacy is one of the biggest shortcomings of Canadian education - a generation of not understanding the power of compound interest results in an ever-widening gap between the "haves" and "have nots" in each subsequent generation.

If we could generally help the lower middle class understand better the power of simple financial decisions made early in life for long periods of time, it would actually move the needle - I really believe this.

Stop listening to your parents that "you'll never sleep better then when you don't have a mortgage." The goal should be to have a giant portfolio of assets (real estate, stocks, baseball cards, I don't care) that are going up faster than the interest rate of your mortgage. If you are doing that, every year you have a mortgage, you are creating wealth for yourself and your children. It's simple math, but it's frankly only how wealthy and business people think, not "average" folks and it really hurts them.

Soapbox off...

-Mark

[Hondaracer]

I don’t think financial literacy would convince these people who think the stock market is gambling/a fools game any otherwise. It’s more of a cultural thing than education imo

I know plenty of people who had the same mentality and actually took huge hits buying property in Alberta as a “safe” investment VS investing in the market. I don’t feel too badly for them.

[Euro7r]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

I don’t think financial literacy would convince these people who think the stock market is gambling/a fools game any otherwise. It’s more of a cultural thing than education imo

I know plenty of people who had the same mentality and actually took huge hits buying property in Alberta as a “safe” investment VS investing in the market. I don’t feel too badly for them.

My aunt been timing the market for the last 14 years, literally fucked their adults kids over now, as she could have owned multiple houses if she bought in back that time. That stupid mentality of market crashing, will be cheaper next year. Now she could only afford one-town house locally LOL. It's simple demand > supply. There's only so much land in the city. Even if the market crashes, are people expecting homes to be 50% off? I kept telling my aunt, you save $100K today but homes go up $250K, your always trying to playing catch-up. The increase is far greater and faster than you could ever save.

[Wormiez]

Timing Real Estate in Vancouver is like buying NFTs... "Trust me, it's going to be a rare one!"

[JDMDreams]

Even if my place takes a 20% hit I still can't afford to rebuy it

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by Wormiez

Timing Real Estate in Vancouver is like buying NFTs... "Trust me, it's going to be a rare one!"

If you can afford to hold a property for a long time there is no wrong time to buy.

[pastarocket]

Your thoughts on the federal budget in terms of addressing housing affordability?

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/0...-2022-housing/

Addressing housing supply in Budget 2022

“In putting together this budget, we were very mindful of elevated inflationary pressure,” said Freeland, noting this is one that focuses on expanding the supply side of the economy.”

In its fiscal plan, the federal government is looking to double the construction of new homes over the next decade, to address supply challenges. Budget 2022 is proposing an additional $4 billion over five years to launch the Housing Accelerator Fund, which aims to help municipalities across the country to build new housing units. This fund would provide supports, like an “annual per-door incentive or upfront funding” for housing plans and delivery to help speed up development.

First-time buyers

To help Canadians break into the housing market, Budget 2022 includes the introduction of the Tax-Free First Home Savings Account, which aims to help people buy their first home. The Liberals estimate the account could give prospective buyers the ability to save up to $40,000, adding the account would act like an RRSP, with contributions tax-deductible and withdrawals for a first home non-taxable, like a TFSA. In addition to this, the government proposes to double the First-time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit to $10,000, “providing up to $1,500 in direct support to home buyers,” applying to homes that are bought on or after Jan. 1, 2022.

Budget 2022 says the government plans to work with financial institutions to ensure Tax-Free First Home Savings Accounts can be opened and that people can start contributing to them in 2023.

The minority government estimates the account will “provide $725 million in support over five years.”

Foreign buyer ban
Budget 2022 introduces the Liberal government’s intention to introduce a ban on foreign investments in Canada’s housing market. The proposed restrictions would “prohibit foreign commercial enterprises and people who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents from acquiring non-recreational, residential property in Canada for a period of two years.”

Budget 2022 says foreign money in Canadian real estate has been “fuelling concerns about the impact on costs in cities like Vancouver and Toronto” for years, adding it’s also added to Canadians’ worries about increasing prices across the country.

House flipping rule proposals

Another issue that is being highlighted by the latest budget is that of property flipping. The practice, which has been flagged by many across Canada for years, “can unfairly lead to higher housing prices,” Budget 2022 notes, adding some people may even be “improperly reporting their profits” from flipping homes to “pay less tax.”

The fiscal plan proposes the introduction of new rules which would apply to individuals who sell a property they have held for less than a year – 12 months. These individuals would be “subject to full taxation on their profits as business income,” with the measures applying to residential properties that are sold on or after Jan. 1, 2023.


Budget 2022 notes there would be exemptions to these rules, such as for Canadians who need to sell the property due to “certain life circumstances,” like a death, disability, family or economic changes. The government plans to consult Canadians on rules.

“This new measure will ensure that investors who flip homes pay their fair share while protecting the current, vitally important, principal residence exemption for Canadians who use their houses as homes,” the budget explains.

Property flipping is an issue the Liberals have been questioned on in the past. A now-Liberal-MP in the Vancouver area came under fire in 2021, prior to the federal election, for his involvement in a number of rapid-fire deals over the last decade in Vancouver’s hot housing market.

Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights

As competition remains cut-throat in many regions of Canada, some home buyers have been forced to make difficult decisions to secure a purchase. Budget 2022 notes the federal government will work with provinces and territories over the coming year to create and bring in a Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights (https://liberal.ca/housing/introduce...ill-of-rights/). The bill, which the government first hinted at last year, would protect prospective buyers from unfair practices, like blind bidding or waiving inspections. The budget also proposes bringing forward a plan to end the practice of blind bidding, which, according to the Liberal Party, the practice that “prevents bidders from knowing the bids of other prospective buyers, and ultimately drives up home prices.”
[B]

Housing for Indigenous communities

Building on previous spending, the 2022 fiscal plan proposes $4.3 billion over seven years to improve and expand Indigenous housing in Canada. This is on top of more than $2.7 billion invested since 2015, the Liberals say. The government also plans to allocate $2 billion from the $20 billion already set aside for the First Nations Child and Family Services program to target the needs of Indigenous children once a settlement agreement is reached. In total, Budget 2022 foresees spending on improving and expanding Indigenous housing hitting $6.3 billion over seven years.

Housing for those most vulnerable

The minority government is proposing to extend the Rapid Housing Initiative for a third round to help get more affordable housing units built. Budget 2022 outlines an additional $1.5 billion over two years to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, which the Liberals expect will “create at least 6,000 new affordable housing units.” The budget notes at least 25 per cent of the funding will go to women-focused housing projects.

When it comes to rentals, Budget 2022 announces the Liberals’ “intent to reform the Rental Construction Financing Initiative,” focusing on affordability and energy efficiency. The budget also announces plans for new requirements and incentives to “ensure that rental units built through (the Rental Construction Financing Initiative) are more affordable, that people can reduce pollution, and save on energy bills.” The Liberals target that this will also help Canada continue to progress on its goals of meeting climate projections.

The initiative’s target is to have “at least 40 per cent of units it supports provide rent equal to or lower than 80 per cent of the average market rent” in the community the project is in.

Financial support for ‘Canadians experiencing housing need’

As part of $4 billion in joint funding announced in 2020 through the Canada Housing Benefit, Budget 2022 proposes $475 million this fiscal year to provide people who are “facing housing affordability challenges” with a one-time $500 payment. Budget 2022 says more specific details will be provided “at a later date.”

[JDMDreams]

A lot of talk, look at what happened to the first time home buyer credit we have for BC, and first time home buyer incentive. One is capped at $500k and the other is capped at like $120k of income? Good luck buying with that.

I didn't hear much of how they can increase supply, this is an easy supply and demand problem. Increase supply and prices will fall, but I don't see how many cities like Vancouver can increase supply as we have no land, not everyone wants to live in 500sq, then we have the outdated infrastructure roads that can't support that much density.

[pastarocket]

Hmm, I am looking more at the demand side of housing after reading the budget details.

Two year ban on foreign individual and business ownership of residential property ownership in Canada.

Proposed rules on fully taxing individuals on profits from flipping their homes with less than a year of ownership.

Is is really just talk this time from the Feds?

[JDMDreams]

Right, I guess we'll have to wait 366 days before we can sell. Unless the market is red hot I doubt you can buy a house pay tax, fees, then flip in 3 months pay tax and fees again then break even. To the moon. only one getting rich is the gov with the property transfer tax.

What about the hundreds of thousands of immigrants they are gonna let come in. All the Ukrainians we now own and have to feed.

Then you just get your pr aunty or your student son to buy that $10 million mansion.

Nothing some lawyers can't figure out if you have the $ to throw.

But yea maybe we should tear down more of those 50 year old slum apartments and rebuilt towers on the land. Offer the existing residents first dibs ??? Profit. Solves the leaky condo issue too. Tear down Broadway and nanaimo and build towers there.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by pastarocket

Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights

As competition remains cut-throat in many regions of Canada, some home buyers have been forced to make difficult decisions to secure a purchase. Budget 2022 notes the federal government will work with provinces and territories over the coming year to create and bring in a Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights (https://liberal.ca/housing/introduce...ill-of-rights/). The bill, which the government first hinted at last year, would protect prospective buyers from unfair practices, like blind bidding or waiving inspections. The budget also proposes bringing forward a plan to end the practice of blind bidding, which, according to the Liberal Party, the practice that “prevents bidders from knowing the bids of other prospective buyers, and ultimately drives up home prices.”
[B]

This whole "home buyer's bill of rights" seems like punishment to sellers for a problem that was 100% caused by buyers.

Things like waiving inspections is not inherently unfair. For those who have valid reasons and can afford the risk it's a tool to make their bid more favorable, no different than offering a higher price.
It's ridiculous that people have to be protected from their own bad decisions.

[JDMDreams]

^^ yea, if I was a seller then I just wouldn't sell, this won't create more supply, or you have to offer even higher to get your offer looked at.

What about the ppl that has to sell inorder to buy?

[HonestTea]

First-time buyers

To help Canadians break into the housing market, Budget 2022 includes the introduction of the Tax-Free First Home Savings Account, which aims to help people buy their first home. The Liberals estimate the account could give prospective buyers the ability to save up to $40,000, adding the account would act like an RRSP, with contributions tax-deductible and withdrawals for a first home non-taxable, like a TFSA. In addition to this, the government proposes to double the First-time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit to $10,000, “providing up to $1,500 in direct support to home buyers,” applying to homes that are bought on or after Jan. 1, 2022.

What makes this any different than TFSA?

[SkunkWorks]

Originally Posted by HonestTea

What makes this any different than TFSA?

It's tax deductible like an RRSP account.

[JDMDreams]

^ it sounds really weird, why not just increase the first time home buyer amount from $35000 why do they have to create a whole new thing if it's tax deductible.

[EvoFire]

Originally Posted by Great68

This whole "home buyer's bill of rights" seems like punishment to sellers for a problem that was 100% caused by buyers.

Things like waiving inspections is not inherently unfair. For those who have valid reasons and can afford the risk it's a tool to make their bid more favorable, no different than offering a higher price.
It's ridiculous that people have to be protected from their own bad decisions.

Not even that, but getting rid of blind bidding will just drive property prices up even higher as now I know what the other guy bid and I can bid 10k more, and then it follows.

[6thGear.]

Originally Posted by JDMDreams

^ it sounds really weird, why not just increase the first time home buyer amount from $35000 why do they have to create a whole new thing if it's tax deductible.

Why would the government want to make things that simple??

Originally Posted by EvoFire

Not even that, but getting rid of blind bidding will just drive property prices up even higher as now I know what the other guy bid and I can bid 10k more, and then it follows.

Exactly. Bidding is bidding. Whether it's blind or not. If anything knowing what the other bids are puts more pressure on the buyer when their sleazy realtor pushes their client to win the bid cause FOMO