Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Traum]

Originally Posted by supafamous

More dream than reality, a 911 or a 718 is in the future somewhere but will see how things shake out. No room for a Miata but I'd love to have something for silly summer fun so much.

If you are thinking of picking up a brand new ICE-based 718, you'd really want to get on top of putting an order in sooner rather than later. There isn't very many years left in its production, and the current wait times mean if you continue to wait on it, you may not be able to get one anymore.

We all know the used market is overpriced right now, so esp for a car like a 911 or Cayman, I think it makes more sense to buy new as a custom order.

I fully expect the 992.2 to offer a hybrid drivetrain somewhere down the line, but it is not obviously to me when that'll happen. If that's something that appeals to you, then it may make more sense to hold out for now.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by 68style

Who do you use for your mortgage/loans in USA? It seems like, at least for residential, getting a mortgage as a foreigner to the USA is pretty difficult or costly... a heft % more required for downpayment or much higher interest rate or combination of both? Even up here requirements for commercial are way more stringent than residential where the mortgage is concerned.

Anyone that seems to do it from Canada is doing both... and the USA side I can understand lenders down there don't want to deal with most of us because they don't have much on us if we were default.

For residential, just call around and ask for brokers who caters such request. If they say they don't have it, hang up or ask to see if they know anyone. Chances are, you would find one within 5 calls. There are lenders who specialize in foreigners. In cities with major Canadian concentration (snowbirds) in Arizona or Florida, there are many many lenders who can get you (a Canadian) something quite competitive. From what I recall, less than 1% of difference on rates. That's from a few years back. But it shouldn't be much different.

Requirement is a bit higher (downpayment of 30-35% seems to be the norm), but nothing outrageous either.

[68style]

That's very encouraging, it's easy to read articles saying it doesn't work or they won't help you out... but good salient point, sometimes just calling and asking is all the difference.

All my friends didn't think you could have an account in the USA but I just drove down and asked a bank to do it and they're like sure thing. Super handy.

What cities do you usually invest in for commercial? Do you tend to lean toward states with more owner-centric rental rules?

[CivicBlues]

So enough with all the fucking navel gazing and nostalgia on this thread how about some actionable information? Anyone have any insight on when those looking to upgrade should start buying in the next few months? What with interest rate hikes on the horizon? Are we expecting price drops?

[underscore]

Originally Posted by Traum

Damn...

Looking at this aerial (drone?) photo, I can't help but think how these 4 houses should really have stayed as 2 lots with just 2 bigger houses, with a lot more space inbetween. Kitsilano / W. Point Grey is a nice neighbourhood, and this is a nice house (minus the flat roof). But at $5M for a 33 ft frontage home?

Damn...

$5M and you have to walk outside to get to the garage.

[JDMDreams]

Depends if you can sell your existing place, most likely you don't have to pay top dollar but you also won't get top dollar for your place, and the longer you wait the more expensive it will be for you due to the higher rates. But I think a lot of people are just putting this on hold. They won't sell unless they need to. So I don't see a lot of inventory coming up. If prices aren't favourable to sellers.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

So enough with all the fucking navel gazing and nostalgia on this thread how about some actionable information? Anyone have any insight on when those looking to upgrade should start buying in the next few months? What with interest rate hikes on the horizon? Are we expecting price drops?

I thought word on the street is -- we are in for at least 2 more planned 0.5% rate hikes before the end of the year (ie. total of at least 1% hike on interest rate).

Personally, I am surprised by the cooling effect the two recent rate hikes have on the housing market, both in terms of the number of transactions and the prices. That is to say, I expected a mild slowdown and price correction, but the effects we are seeing now are bigger than my expectations.

IMO, if someone has the means to support the the interest rate in spite of the upcoming hikes, they should take advantage of the price drops some time in 2023. It is difficult to see through the noise and uncertainty in the short term, but in the medium to long term, I really can't see how putting money down on a primary home can be a losing proposition (here in Metro Vancouver).

[G0rilla]

I just helped my friend close on a place and was going through the whole journey with them. Info is based on the last 2 months or so, since the first rate hike. Visited about 30 or so, open houses, condo market 2bed 2 bath. Things I noticed

1) Properties have alot less competing offers and far less people at open houses. Of course those desirable areas and layouts, etc still garnish attention.
2) Sellers are not very willing to budge on prices still
3) Reports say sales TRANSACTIONS are slowing, but prices are still fairly stagnant
4) Banks are tightening up hard, credit is not as easy to come by

Quick maths for those interested

1) $700K place, required down payment $200K (29%)
2) Average 2 year salary $90K (Above average based on what we discussed in the last page)
3) Rate 3.1% variable, 30yr amort, monthly payment is approx $2-2.1K
4) Strata $400 Taxes $150 monthly Utilities (Gas,hydro,tv,internet whatever) $200
5) Roughly $2.7K after tax income, before tax $3.6K (25% tax rate), annualized $43K in before tax salary goes to housing.
6) Approx 50% of annual salary goes into housing costs and thats assuming you have a $220K down payment first
7) Yea youre fucked if you dont have family help or get lucky/fortunate earlier in life

[EvoFire]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

It's a nice house and the value is in the larger than average lot in the City of Vancouver. The buyer for this house is likely an EV owner with a stable of high-end road bikes.

Sometimes I wonder why a site with car enthusiasts is so obsessed about owning a suburban-style house in the City of Vancouver, which is only going to become more dense and less vehicle dependent going forward. The Vancouver that existed in the 80s and the early 1990s, where everyone drove their shitbox Civics, Integras, and Corollas to school and to the Big Bamboo and Richards on Richards is gone. All of these people on RS with their M and P-cars with 500+ HP, go from stoplight to stoplight in the City of Vancouver...

When we were looking, the proximity to HK style lemon tea and baked pork chop on rice, Asian groceries, and parents were high on the list. Then came ease of traffic for daycare droppoff and pick up. It meant south of Fraser River and anything east of New West or Coquitlam were instantly out of the picture.

We really like North/West Van but I just couldn't see myself not getting frustrated with living there, no matter how nice the neighbourhood is.

We don't like Richmond so that was out. That left Vancouver, Burnaby, New West, and Coquitlam. We ended up in Vancouver.

TBH it's fine. As a car enthusiast most of GVRD kind of sucks anyways and we mostly drive the family SUV. My car just sits in the garage.

Originally Posted by Traum

If you are thinking of picking up a brand new ICE-based 718, you'd really want to get on top of putting an order in sooner rather than later. There isn't very many years left in its production, and the current wait times mean if you continue to wait on it, you may not be able to get one anymore.

We all know the used market is overpriced right now, so esp for a car like a 911 or Cayman, I think it makes more sense to buy new as a custom order.

I fully expect the 992.2 to offer a hybrid drivetrain somewhere down the line, but it is not obviously to me when that'll happen. If that's something that appeals to you, then it may make more sense to hold out for now.

With I think the earliest ICE bans happening in 2030, get in now. With the way Porsche prices are, you can't lose.

The next Cayman is rumoured to be all electric, but I don't know if we are getting a 718.2 before the new completely new model drops. Porsche has stated they will try to hold on to the ICE for as long as possible so we'll see where that goes. It might be that the 911 will be the only ICE offered in a decade and it would be a hybrid of some sort. I was planning to put an order in on a 992 next year but I am really unsure now with the way the economy is going and the rate hikes.

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

So enough with all the fucking navel gazing and nostalgia on this thread how about some actionable information? Anyone have any insight on when those looking to upgrade should start buying in the next few months? What with interest rate hikes on the horizon? Are we expecting price drops?

If you are upgrading imo there's never really a good time to buy if you are trying to time the market. Sell high buy high so you just trade based on your real world needs. Realistically mortgage payments are going to be as high as it'll be because the rates are very high now compared to even just Jan and transaction prices aren't coming down quick enough to compensate it.

RE transaction prices traditionally lag the economy. If your goal is trying to get in at the lowest possible transaction price so you can potentially game a lower principle for when rates do come down, next year at the earliest.

Originally Posted by Traum

I thought word on the street is -- we are in for at least 2 more planned 0.5% rate hikes before the end of the year (ie. total of at least 1% hike on interest rate).

Personally, I am surprised by the cooling effect the two recent rate hikes have on the housing market, both in terms of the number of transactions and the prices. That is to say, I expected a mild slowdown and price correction, but the effects we are seeing now are bigger than my expectations.

IMO, if someone has the means to support the the interest rate in spite of the upcoming hikes, they should take advantage of the price drops some time in 2023. It is difficult to see through the noise and uncertainty in the short term, but in the medium to long term, I really can't see how putting money down on a primary home can be a losing proposition (here in Metro Vancouver).

I question whether if the economy can handle an extra 1% hike this year.

The cooling effect is strong because no one expected the hikes to be coming on this strong. Most people expected a 1% hike within the year and everything was priced in for that. Then Russia/Ukraine happened which shook the world, and in comes the extra hikes and we are at +1.25% in June when most ppl expected that by next spring.

If you can get in a SFH on a decent plot of land, it'll always be a win. The question is do you have enough extra cash flow to stomach the upcoming hikes if you go for a var rate.

[hud 91gt]

I expected a fairly quick correction to last years levels with peoples caution with the market. Followed up by further decreases relative to any further interest rate hikes. Stagnant prices for a couple years from there.

[Eff-1]

Originally Posted by EvoFire

What industry are you in? Some industries are like that now, sales, tech, even accounting.

Media/advertising.

I agree that some fields see more natural turnover than others, and the economy today has moved the goalposts a bit.

Plus the job market today vs pre-covid is significantly different, which I also take into consideration.

Maybe some jobs are just "put your head down" and write code or crunch numbers, so if someone leaves that person can be replaced without too much trouble.

But for me personally, if I hire someone, it takes 6 months to 1 year before they are fully up to speed. So it is a real pain to hire someone and invest time and money into them only to leave me shortly after and then I am back to square one.

Also, a resume like that brings up other questions: Why does this person keep leaving jobs? It is because they have a bad personality? Culture conflict? Do they just suck at their job? For me, it's a red flag. So it goes straight to the 'no' pile.

I wouldn't date someone who's been married 3 times in 6 years. I wouldn't hire them either!

[bcrdukes]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

All of these people on RS with their M and P-cars with 500+ HP, go from stoplight to stoplight in the City of Vancouver...

lol EvoFire

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Traum

If you are thinking of picking up a brand new ICE-based 718, you'd really want to get on top of putting an order in sooner rather than later. There isn't very many years left in its production, and the current wait times mean if you continue to wait on it, you may not be able to get one anymore.

We all know the used market is overpriced right now, so esp for a car like a 911 or Cayman, I think it makes more sense to buy new as a custom order.

I fully expect the 992.2 to offer a hybrid drivetrain somewhere down the line, but it is not obviously to me when that'll happen. If that's something that appeals to you, then it may make more sense to hold out for now.

I was hoping it would be this year but my (tech) lottery tickets aren't going to pay out this year so things have to wait a bit. I'm not in a rush as I don't really have time to enjoy it right now anyways - in a couple years I'll have the free time for one.

New would be the dream but I don't know if I can stomach $200k on something I'll only drive a couple times a week (convincing my wife would also be a crowning achievement too) - I'm not gonna be THAT kind of rich. This is just a reward for being a lucky bastard. A 981 Boxster would actually be the sensible purchase here.

Originally Posted by Traum

I thought word on the street is -- we are in for at least 2 more planned 0.5% rate hikes before the end of the year (ie. total of at least 1% hike on interest rate).

Personally, I am surprised by the cooling effect the two recent rate hikes have on the housing market, both in terms of the number of transactions and the prices. That is to say, I expected a mild slowdown and price correction, but the effects we are seeing now are bigger than my expectations.

I've been pretty surprised how much the rates have affected the market. My friend has his SFH for sale and after a week he had to drop the price by $100k and it was a reasonable price in the first place. A friend in Victoria got no offers for a modest duplex they had for sale that also seemed to be priced fairly.

Originally Posted by Gerbs

Peep income by age, I'd add $10 - 15,000 for inflation, since numbers on 2016.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r.../index-eng.cfm

That's fascinating data - particularly that peak earnings are between 55-60 for the 99th percentile folks versus peak is 50-55 for everyone else. The money is clearly enough for people to keep working.

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Sometimes I wonder why a site with car enthusiasts is so obsessed about owning a suburban-style house in the City of Vancouver, which is only going to become more dense and less vehicle dependent going forward. The Vancouver that existed in the 80s and the early 1990s, where everyone drove their shitbox Civics, Integras, and Corollas to school and to the Big Bamboo and Richards on Richards is gone. All of these people on RS with their M and P-cars with 500+ HP, go from stoplight to stoplight in the City of Vancouver...

I got too much of my life centred around the Vancouver area - parents and in-laws are in East Van, brothers and brother in laws are in Burnaby/Richmond respectively and most of my friends are in the East Van area.

Like EvoFire being near to baked pork chop on rice and HK lemon tea (and related) matters to us. I can't imagine living an hour away from HK BBQ Master (I'm 0 mins away) or not being able to do some good late night Chinese food easily.

IMO, the reality of our roads in the lower mainland is that it's way too hard to enjoy nice cars - the nice roads are too far away. In Victoria you can take a nice drive (out to Sooke or Munn road) within minutes of starting your car.

[JDMDreams]

I don't really get the you have to be in Van arguement, it literally can take an hour to go from Hastings to marine drive. The traffic sucks here, you are in back to back traffic during the day. To go anywhere it's an easy 45 min. If you live near the highways you can in and out of Van to suburbs in the same amount of time you are stuck in traffic on Kingsway for. And it's either shared parking in condos or fight for Street parking in your $2 million detached.

[EvoFire]

Originally Posted by bcrdukes

lol EvoFire

Hey, only 444hp. Not in the 500 club yet.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by JDMDreams

I don't really get the you have to be in Van arguement, it literally can take an hour to go from Hastings to marine drive. The traffic sucks here, you are in back to back traffic during the day. To go anywhere it's an easy 45 min. If you live near the highways you can in and out of Van to suburbs in the same amount of time you are stuck in traffic on Kingsway for. And it's either shared parking in condos or fight for Street parking in your $2 million detached.

I don't drive a lot (<750km/month) so traffic doesn't really bother me much. OTOH, Vancouver is so much more liveable for walkers, cyclists, and IMO, for parents. I live a few mins into Burnaby now and the difference between Vancouver and Burnaby is dramatic and it's largely all in favour of Vancouver.

There's more greenery in Vancouver - trees on nearly every street and many trees on lots. There's massively better street lighting (at least double Burnaby), there's better sidewalks (Burnaby sidewalks are often inaccessible for wheelchairs and strollers), there's more libraries, there's far more good retail near me in Vancouver.

Vancouver's not as good for cars but it's just SOOOOO much better for most of the other aspects than Burnaby (and Richmond and most other neighbouring cities).

Example - there's park near me (https://goo.gl/maps/JQDRRLWqGo7MVfNS6) where lots of young kids play after school and it's surrounded by streets on 3 sides with bus stops on one street. No where is there a marked crosswalk for parents or kids to use - you either have to stand on the street waiting for someone to stop to let you cross or you walk up to Kingsway to cross. It's utterly ridiculous that a park used by tonnes of kids with a bus stop has no public safety features. Vancouver just doesn't do that kind of stupid shit while Burnaby considers it a resident's problem (you have to get signatures from neighbours and petition for it).

In my case I have parents and in-laws who are reaching the age where driving won't be an option soon so good transit and walkable streets are super important to me.

[Oleophobic]

Originally Posted by G0rilla

I just helped my friend close on a place and was going through the whole journey with them. Info is based on the last 2 months or so, since the first rate hike. Visited about 30 or so, open houses, condo market 2bed 2 bath. Things I noticed

1) Properties have alot less competing offers and far less people at open houses. Of course those desirable areas and layouts, etc still garnish attention.
2) Sellers are not very willing to budge on prices still
3) Reports say sales TRANSACTIONS are slowing, but prices are still fairly stagnant
4) Banks are tightening up hard, credit is not as easy to come by

Quick maths for those interested

1) $700K place, required down payment $200K (29%)
2) Average 2 year salary $90K (Above average based on what we discussed in the last page)
3) Rate 3.1% variable, 30yr amort, monthly payment is approx $2-2.1K
4) Strata $400 Taxes $150 monthly Utilities (Gas,hydro,tv,internet whatever) $200
5) Roughly $2.7K after tax income, before tax $3.6K (25% tax rate), annualized $43K in before tax salary goes to housing.
6) Approx 50% of annual salary goes into housing costs and thats assuming you have a $220K down payment first
7) Yea youre fucked if you dont have family help or get lucky/fortunate earlier in life

Thanks for this. I'm in the market for a 1bed 1den at the same price point so this is helpful. I'm a bit surprised at the 3.1% rate though. I'm getting prime-0.91 (2.79%) variable 30 years

[G0rilla]

Originally Posted by Oleophobic

Thanks for this. I'm in the market for a 1bed 1den at the same price point so this is helpful. I'm a bit surprised at the 3.1% rate though. I'm getting prime-0.91 (2.79%) variable 30 years

If you dont me asking, which bank? This was from TD

[JDMDreams]

^^ not for much longer as rates continue to go up first world problems

[Eff-1]

Originally Posted by G0rilla

If you dont me asking, which bank? This was from TD

My broker said the same thing. Best rate right now for variable is prime discounted by 0.90%

Fixed 5 years are around 4.2%.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by 68style

That's very encouraging, it's easy to read articles saying it doesn't work or they won't help you out... but good salient point, sometimes just calling and asking is all the difference.

All my friends didn't think you could have an account in the USA but I just drove down and asked a bank to do it and they're like sure thing. Super handy.

What cities do you usually invest in for commercial? Do you tend to lean toward states with more owner-centric rental rules?

Commercial is a different animal. Everything is laid out in contract or the lease agreement. There’s not much the government would interfere as long as your lease agreement is fairly standard to the market.

As for location to invest, we tend to focus on cities where there’s a stable increase in population and job opportunity. Because ultimately, the value of CRE is heavily dependent on what people can afford to pay. And the more business there’s to do, the higher the rent over time.

It’s unlikely to have a say double in valuation in 5yr span. But the idea is to double every 10yrs or so. As a CRE investor, we focus on the long term stability of rent rather than short term increase in valuation.

[jing]

Originally Posted by supafamous

I don't drive a lot (<750km/month) so traffic doesn't really bother me much. OTOH, Vancouver is so much more liveable for walkers, cyclists, and IMO, for parents. I live a few mins into Burnaby now and the difference between Vancouver and Burnaby is dramatic and it's largely all in favour of Vancouver.

There's more greenery in Vancouver - trees on nearly every street and many trees on lots. There's massively better street lighting (at least double Burnaby), there's better sidewalks (Burnaby sidewalks are often inaccessible for wheelchairs and strollers), there's more libraries, there's far more good retail near me in Vancouver.

Vancouver's not as good for cars but it's just SOOOOO much better for most of the other aspects than Burnaby (and Richmond and most other neighbouring cities).

Example - there's park near me (https://goo.gl/maps/JQDRRLWqGo7MVfNS6) where lots of young kids play after school and it's surrounded by streets on 3 sides with bus stops on one street. No where is there a marked crosswalk for parents or kids to use - you either have to stand on the street waiting for someone to stop to let you cross or you walk up to Kingsway to cross. It's utterly ridiculous that a park used by tonnes of kids with a bus stop has no public safety features. Vancouver just doesn't do that kind of stupid shit while Burnaby considers it a resident's problem (you have to get signatures from neighbours and petition for it).

In my case I have parents and in-laws who are reaching the age where driving won't be an option soon so good transit and walkable streets are super important to me.

I'm in the hood too and have complained to the City about people ripping it up/down Patterson (80km+) with no recourse while kids are running around the street. Speed bumps are a no go due to it being a transit route and additional street lighting has to be essentially crowdfunded amongst community members. Meanwhile Burnaby still has a $1B+ surplus

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by jing

I'm in the hood too and have complained to the City about people ripping it up/down Patterson (80km+) with no recourse while kids are running around the street. Speed bumps are a no go due to it being a transit route and additional street lighting has to be essentially crowdfunded amongst community members. Meanwhile Burnaby still has a $1B+ surplus

That surplus drives me crazy - the city spends only about 80% of the revenue they bring in and now have one of the largest surpluses (top 5) of any Canadian city. They have enough of a rainy day fund to cover 2 years of spending now and have no plans on how that fund should be used when there's some obvious things that could done with it (safer streets, more accessibility, bike paths). The city's philosophy on crosswalks is to only build them after someone dies cause it's cheaper to do it that way (this is only a slight exaggeration).

This photo is before Burnaby swapped to LED streetlights but it illustrates how big the difference is in lighting between Vancouver and Burnaby:

[PeanutButter]

A laneway in a house that's worth $7.2M? why on earth would you want a renter on your property if you can afford $7.2M??????

That's the craziest thing I've ever heard. I really hope that is for the nanny or something.

[68style]

It’s for the side piece