Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Bonka]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

of course it is a free market and people can do whatever they want to do. but this story also exposes the flaws of efficient market hypothesis. if vancouver was such a normal market the seller does not have to resort to this kind of selling tactic in order to sell his or her property. assuming this houses is grossly undervalued at today's price, which we can safely say it is. there is no reason the seller has to price the house at 600k but only to generate excitement and hopefully a bidding frenzy among the buyers. greed is a powerful driver.

Actually, given the market right now in East Vancouver the difference between underpricing it and pricing it at fair market value is not as great as one would think in terms of net dollars to the seller. The premise of underpricing is done to generate condition-free offers so it sells firm immediately and the potential of selling "x" amount over asking is a consequence of going this route. Whether or not it sells above fair market value is at the mercy of the buyer. This is common in scenarios where excess length of time on the market is undesirable for the seller (estate sale, relocation) but to assume that underpricing every single home will always benefit the seller is erroneous there's actually just as much risk as there is upside.

With what glossed over information we have about this home perhaps this is the best course of action strictly from the seller's point of view.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by westopher

I'm willing to bet it sells for 800k

You read the article right? This house was built before world war 1, on a small lot, in an average at best area...
Posted via RS Mobile

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by Bonka

Actually, given the market right now in East Vancouver the difference between underpricing it and pricing it at fair market value is not as great as one would think in terms of net dollars to the seller. The premise of underpricing is done to generate condition-free offers so it sells firm immediately and the potential of selling "x" amount over asking is a consequence of going this route. Whether or not it sells above fair market value is at the mercy of the buyer. This is common in scenarios where excess length of time on the market is undesirable for the seller (estate sale, relocation) but to assume that underpricing every single home will always benefit the seller is erroneous there's actually just as much risk as there is upside.

With what glossed over information we have about this home perhaps this is the best course of action strictly from the seller's point of view.

Obviously there are risks when pricing your property below the market but it all depends on the market. Given how people are conditioned in this city to love their houses when all valuation metrics can be thrown out the window I think it'll work. The risk to the upside outweighs the downside. Why do you think grocery store have weekly lost leader? Because you won't just that one item but probably do your whole week of shopping there. I'm merely pointing out the emotional side of things when it comes to property buying. People see low prices and immediately get excited. When your thinking comes from your gut instead of your brain you know you gonna be in a world of hurt down the line.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by GLOW

realtors like to also list it below 'assessed value', get a ton of people to the open house, and then field multiple offers and let the ebay effect kick in.

Not sure why everybody feels like this house is such a great deal, or below assessed value...

It's assessed at $532,100; $446,000 land $86,100 building. $599,000 is your typical 10-15% above assessed value asking price.

[4444]

Originally Posted by E-40six

lol who would want to buy that shack?
its right on Clark and 10th with heavy truck traffic.

It Still has its original plaster walls and the whole house is probably laced with asbestos

ya, but.... Vancouver

[4444]

Originally Posted by UFO

Not sure why everybody feels like this house is such a great deal, or below assessed value...

It's assessed at $532,100; $446,000 land $86,100 building. $599,000 is your typical 10-15% above assessed value asking price.

because of media hype, that's why

also, let's talk about value - if you offered it to me for $400K i'd say that it's way too expensive.

to truly value a property, outside of emotion and potential redevelopment, it's all based on cash flow, that is if you're valuing based on fundamentals.

fuck vancouver's real estate pumpers and the idiots that buy into the hype. if someone pays 600K for this shithole, you deserve everything you get

[westopher]

Originally Posted by UFO

You read the article right? This house was built before world war 1, on a small lot, in an average at best area...
Posted via RS Mobile

Yeah, and you understand that the publicity given by this stupid article is going to start a bidding war that will quickly get out of hand and result in the purchase price being way over market value, right? I've seen plenty of houses SUBSTANTIALLY shittier than that go for 800. Honestly, it looks incredibly well kept which is more than you can say for most of the vancouver pre war crackshacks. Also its about 3x the square footage of the next lowest priced detached home in metro vancouver. Not to mention you have an amazing view of that stupid fucking east van sign on 6th and clark so you can east van represent hard as fuck.

[jasonturbo]

Just slightly off topic, I have been living in Edmonton for the last year and it looks like we won't be able to leave until the fall of 2015 thanks to the GF and her desire to be an academic.

RE prices here (IMO), make Van RE prices seem reasonable. For instance we are trying to move downtown to make her commute easier, but there is virtually no options for "nice buildings". Just as an example, the highly coveted "Alta Vista" building; (I would have used the Icon but there isn't anything comparable for sale)

REALTOR.ca -Property Details E3363763

Vs. Typical Yaletown yuppie pad

REALTOR.ca -Property Details V1046650

Barely any difference in price or features IMO, except the following;
Yaletown - you get a view of beautiful Van, amazing food nearby, safe, coastal climate
Edmonton - you get a view of dirtsville, shitty food nearby, Oilver area is not safe, and terrible Alberta climate.

Obviously Van has many other advantages, it's proximity to the US, ability to draw major venues, beaches/mountains, etc.

Sure in Edmonton you could buy a 2000sq ft house in a new area, but you are in the middle of nowhere, you will be commuting for hours and hours each week. There is no landscaping, no character, and your utility bills.. well mine are roughly 600/month on average over the year (Heat in winter, AC in summer). All people do for fun in Edmonton is drive around and shop. I hate this place.

Having said all that, when I move back to Van and drop 700k+ on an apartment smaller than 1000sqft I won't mind one bit. So maybe that can help explain why the prices can be so bonkers here.. cause they are bonkers everywhere else, and everywhere else is a shithole in comparison.

Oh, and one last thing, #&$& you Toronto.

Van

Edit: And since this is a car forum, I should mention the roads are shit here and the winter destroys your vehicle.... plus you will mile it out since the city is laid out so poorly with no concept of centralization.

[noclue]

oh god I've heard enough horrors about pre-war houses to stay far away unless I want to demolish it.

Asbestos, mold and underground oil tank, if it leaked and contaminated the soil = $$$$

[4444]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Just slightly off topic, I have been living in Edmonton for the last year and it looks like we won't be able to leave until the fall of 2015 thanks to the GF and her desire to be an academic.

RE prices here (IMO), make Van RE prices seem reasonable. For instance we are trying to move downtown to make her commute easier, but there is virtually no options for "nice buildings". Just as an example, the highly coveted "Alta Vista" building; (I would have used the Icon but there isn't anything comparable for sale)

REALTOR.ca -Property Details E3363763

Vs. Typical Yaletown yuppie pad

REALTOR.ca -Property Details V1046650

Barely any difference in price or features IMO, except the following;
Yaletown - you get a view of beautiful Van, amazing food nearby, safe, coastal climate
Edmonton - you get a view of dirtsville, shitty food nearby, Oilver area is not safe, and terrible Alberta climate.

Obviously Van has many other advantages, it's proximity to the US, ability to draw major venues, beaches/mountains, etc.

Sure in Edmonton you could buy a 2000sq ft house in a new area, but you are in the middle of nowhere, you will be commuting for hours and hours each week. There is no landscaping, no character, and your utility bills.. well mine are roughly 600/month on average over the year (Heat in winter, AC in summer). All people do for fun in Edmonton is drive around and shop. I hate this place.

Having said all that, when I move back to Van and drop 700k+ on an apartment smaller than 1000sqft I won't mind one bit. So maybe that can help explain why the prices can be so bonkers here.. cause they are bonkers everywhere else, and everywhere else is a shithole in comparison.

Oh, and one last thing, #&$& you Toronto.

Van

Edit: And since this is a car forum, I should mention the roads are shit here and the winter destroys your vehicle.... plus you will mile it out since the city is laid out so poorly with no concept of centralization.

well, yes, vancouver is a diamond compared to everything else in canada.

thank god canada is only one of many, many, many countries in the world, most of which have a better selection of cities compared to canada.

people need to stop being so short sighted thinking canada is the be all and end all of countries to live. it has some great pluses, but there are plenty of options around the world

[Carl Johnson]

BoC to use anecdotal evidence, people conversations in economic forecasts: Poloz


By The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada is rethinking how it analyzing the economy, in part by putting less faith in computer models and more on anecdotal information and conversations with Canadians.


In a message from governor Stephen Poloz, the central bank said its confidence in its models was shaken somewhat last year by the economy's underperformance and its inability to foresee events.


The message was contained in the bank's annual report, released Friday.


"We are working hard to refine those models, but this experience is also leading us to put increased emphasis on anecdotal evidence — real conversations with real Canadians making real economic decisions," Poloz says in a foreward.


"This approach includes surveys, both ours and those done by others, and numerous meetings with business associations" and roundtable discussions.


The bank has been criticized over the past few years for its overly optimistic view of how the economy would perform, especially under former governor Mark Carney.


Poloz notes that at the start of 2013, the central bank again began the year with a rather rosy view of how the economy would perform, with expectations of an export rebound spurring robust business investment.


"By summer, however, our optimism had dimmed," Poloz says, noting that apart from U.S. weakness, non-commodity exports were softer than the bank's models were indicating they should be, business investment was lagging and inflation was "inexplicable low."


That required the bank to change its tightening bias, which had been telling markets the next move would be to raise interest rates, to a neutral stance, he said.


Looking forward, Poloz said the bank would establish "new principles and practices" to reformulate its role in promoting monetary policy and financial stability, but did not give specifics.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bo...013012178.html

Poloz basically just admitted we traded our factories for condos. The verbal policy of talking up the Canadian economy has utterly failed. Businesses invested offshore. The low loonie will somewhat help our exports but watch out for that inflation. We could be caught in a stagflation if we are not careful.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

Poloz basically just admitted we traded our factories for condos. The verbal policy of talking up the Canadian economy has utterly failed. Businesses invested offshore. The low loonie will somewhat help our exports but watch out for that inflation. We could be caught in a stagflation if we are not careful.

I don't get why Poloz doesn't include offshore investments by Canadian (people and corp) during the height of loonie. Subtract that from their models and they can get a much clear view.

When loonie was low, investing offshore didn't make much sense. But when our loonie was on par with USD, investing in US and/or other foreign were extremely attractive (take RE for example... compare what you can get for 1M in Canada vs. in US)

BoC continue to believe that when loonie was high, CDN would import more and become more competitive while STAY in Canada, but they never think how a higher loonie simply enabled CDN corp to finally move abroad.

I have worked with so many requests for the last few years about creating entities abroad to cover part/entirety of their operation that I can't even remember when the trend started.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Hehe

I don't get why Poloz doesn't include offshore investments by Canadian (people and corp) during the height of loonie. Subtract that from their models and they can get a much clear view.

When loonie was low, investing offshore didn't make much sense. But when our loonie was on par with USD, investing in US and/or other foreign were extremely attractive (take RE for example... compare what you can get for 1M in Canada vs. in US)

BoC continue to believe that when loonie was high, CDN would import more and become more competitive while STAY in Canada, but they never think how a higher loonie simply enabled CDN corp to finally move abroad.

I have worked with so many requests for the last few years about creating entities abroad to cover part/entirety of their operation that I can't even remember when the trend started.

that's exactly what happened. high dollar just made me move all my cdn investment dollars into the US, because we all knew the strong Cdn $ was a short term anomoly.

now we're going back to normal (weak cdn $) but as has been said above the weak dollar will now just amplify the problems that we didn't address over the last 6 years.

we really didn't miss the economic downturn, we made policies to not feel the full effect, but that never works, we will likely feel it harder now that had we just taken a big bath in '08/09

[Gululu]

bump

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by 4444

that's exactly what happened. high dollar just made me move all my cdn investment dollars into the US, because we all knew the strong Cdn $ was a short term anomoly.

now we're going back to normal (weak cdn $) but as has been said above the weak dollar will now just amplify the problems that we didn't address over the last 6 years.

we really didn't miss the economic downturn, we made policies to not feel the full effect, but that never works, we will likely feel it harder now that had we just taken a big bath in '08/09

A blood bath =D

[Verdasco]

explain with the picture.

[Z3guy]

Originally Posted by Gululu

bump

What the realtor is thinking...."I am going to be back reselling this place when the new owner get's his liquor license pulled for running his restaurant like a karaoke bar"

What the previous owner is thinking..." this kid is going to run my business into ground!, oh well, at least he paid me cash"

What the new owner is thinking...."I am going to turn this place into the hottest karaoke bar".

[noclue]

new owner "don't care if it loses money, need it for permanent residence"

[iEatClams]

There are a lot of commercial and small light industrial businesses being purchased for top dollar by foreign chinese money right now. Most of the area around metrotown is being bought by mainland chinese money. They may or may not actually be residences or citizens, but the money is definitely foreign.

[4444]

does anyone know what the above story is?

i appreciate all the comical rhetoric, and completely agree with it, but would be interested to see the front page spread / attention this got in the province and sun, because, you know, this is front page new - asian (canadians) buying real estate

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

Poloz basically just admitted we traded our factories for condos. The verbal policy of talking up the Canadian economy has utterly failed. Businesses invested offshore. The low loonie will somewhat help our exports but watch out for that inflation. We could be caught in a stagflation if we are not careful.

yup, I dont like the long-term (5+ years) implications this will have on Canada.

we lose our manufacturing, replace it with Real estate and other service industries that cater to consumerism and high debt. We become a service country like the US, rather than a producer like we use to be.

Service countries just recycle wealth, transferring it from the poor to the rich. Producing countries build wealth for all.

[Kalize]

Originally Posted by 4444

does anyone know what the above story is?

i appreciate all the comical rhetoric, and completely agree with it, but would be interested to see the front page spread / attention this got in the province and sun, because, you know, this is front page new - asian (canadians) buying real estate

41 year old pizza business sold.

[Kirito]

Originally Posted by 4444

well, yes, vancouver is a diamond compared to everything else in canada.

thank god canada is only one of many, many, many countries in the world, most of which have a better selection of cities compared to canada.

people need to stop being so short sighted thinking canada is the be all and end all of countries to live. it has some great pluses, but there are plenty of options around the world

You make a good point. However, for most people on this forum I would assume given a choice they would only consider English speaking countries which kind of narrows your list down.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Kalize

41 year old pizza business sold.

that's news?

[4444]

Originally Posted by Kirito

You make a good point. However, for most people on this forum I would assume given a choice they would only consider English speaking countries which kind of narrows your list down.

i live in a non-english native language country. took about 2 weeks to adjust. it's not hard to learn another language when you're immersed (western to western language, that is)

people need to stop being so closed minded, ironic given that vancouverites claim to be so open minded!