Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[westopher]

I know that, but the information is usable in multiple ways. Personally I don’t really put any value in what my neighbour makes when looking for a home.

[JDMDreams]

I'm above individual median and household median but I'm still poor

[Hakkaboy]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

I didn't post that median income link to make a point about buying power.

My point was that it's a good way to see who is living in your neighbourhoods - boomers, foreigners, or working professionals who make their incomes locally.

Look at the areas in dark purple - they're spread out all across the Lower Mainland, rather than say Douglas Park or Arbutus Ridge.

if you click on "Family with Children", then virtually the whole map will be filled with dark purple. Except for the areas with the tax dodge cheats and some true lower income neighborhoods

[snowball]

Originally Posted by sonick

1% increase to prime rate. That'll crater housing demand.

For those who bought in the last year (myself included), hold on to your butts...

For real, I actually have to stop going to Starbucks now..

[Special K]

Anyone fixing their mortgage now? Inflation doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon.

[Acura604]

Shit. Sitting at RBC 3.45% variable after the rate increase


Another increase is coming pretty soon..since we are so intertwined with ����

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/inves...ing/index.html

[supafamous]

https://twitter.com/stevesaretsky/st...6z2ITq3i9eLV4g

Over 50% of new mortgage originations this year have been variable rate mortgages. Of all outstanding variable rate mortgages, about 80% of them have a fixed payment.

Overnight swaps suggest BoC will lift rates a total of 350bps this year, which is roughly the number required to trigger many fixed payment variable mortgages.

Those of us who renewed at the bottom of the market (late last year) should all pull out their mortgage docs to see what their trigger rate is cause the increase in payments can be pretty huge. My back of napkin says if the rate goes up another 100bps that AND the bank wants to reset that my payments go from $5400 to $8000/mo (!!!)

The market has priced in another increase later this year but has also priced in a decrease in the first half of next year so likely a transitory problem but one that can be really painful for some folks.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Special K

Anyone fixing their mortgage now? Inflation doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon.

Nah, ship has sailed for the most part. The forecast for next year is 4% inflation (BoC forecast) which is higher than they want but also a big drop from what we're seeing this year (~8-9%).

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by supafamous

Those of us who renewed at the bottom of the market (late last year) should all pull out their mortgage docs to see what their trigger rate is cause the increase in payments can be pretty huge. My back of napkin says if the rate goes up another 100bps that AND the bank wants to reset that my payments go from $5400 to $8000/mo (!!!)

Your payments alone are $5400/month?

I knew RS had some ballers, but...

[CivicBlues]

I seem to be the only one here with a variable rate mortgage that has a variable set payment (sorry, what's the term? anyone?).

Been paying more ever since the first increase back in March

[sonick]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Your payments alone are $5400/month?

I knew RS had some ballers, but...

Mine's about that too, but have no other significant overhead (car payments, etc.) and no kids. At 3.7% currently, did some calculations an additional 1% to 4.7% and budgeting accordingly.

that DINK life.

[MarkyMark]

If you can afford the payments wouldn't the be the better way to go rather than your mortgage getting extended?

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Traum

I think the general sentiments are that hyperinflation / stagflation is more damaging and difficult to manage than a recession, and that is why we are seeing the on-going interest rate hikes. Furthermore, as it has been pointed out multiple times recently in this thread, realistically speaking, even rates in the 4 - 5% shouldn't really be considered as "really high".

One good way to look at it, is whether you would lend your money out at 1 - 5% rates to peeps who need mortgages? I probably wouldn't.

GIC's paying almost 4.85% now, plus another 0.5 - 1% post rate hike.

[JDMDreams]

Yea variable ppl might be in shock when they hit trigger since rates have been hiking so much they are quite behind schedule.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Great68

Wow, I think everyone expected rate hikes (well, smart ones anyways), just not 225 points in less than 6 months...

I was expecting it to go 4.5% by end of 2024, then 6 - 8% if necessary till 2026.

Crazy how fasts it moved! But I guess the inflation has to take priority

[donk.]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Your payments alone are $5400/month?

I knew RS had some ballers, but...

As I said before, his actual name is SupaBallin

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by G0rilla

Probably see a little dip, some panic sales and then business as usual. Prices are not dropping, but sales transactions are. We will see after the summer rush and see what fall brings us

Sales transactions are dropping because the $600 -700K condos are now costing $3,700 a month before taxes and strata at 6% 5-year fixed! Even with $120 - 140K downpayment + $10 - 15k for LTT.


Nobody I know who can afford $3,700/month would pay that much for a 1BR

[donk.]

Originally Posted by Acura604

Shit. Sitting at RBC 3.45% variable after the rate increase


[/url]

3.94 here at rbc

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

If you can afford the payments wouldn't the be the better way to go rather than your mortgage getting extended?

Only if your mortgage is less than 30 years as that's the max that's allowed. I bet there are things going on in Ottawa to allow 35 years temporarily as when that trigger gets hit a lot of shit will hit the fan.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

In 2021, there were just over 14,000 detached sales within the territory of the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board (from Poco to Vancouver/Richmond).

In 2020, there were nearly 70K people in the 35-44 age bracket in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (Vancouver to Maple Ridge/Township of Langley) that had declared personal incomes of 100K or more. In the 45-54 age bracket, there were another 72K people with personal incomes of 100K or more. From 2015 to 2020, the number of 100K income individuals in the former bracket increased by over 33%, while in the latter, the increase was 16%.

Just curious at what household income would you be comfortable offering $1.7 - 1.9M for a house? Mortgage + PPtax will be around $10K/month @ 6%.

At $100K individual income you're taking home $6K/month, $156K takes home $9k/month.

Lets assume both me and my partner make $156k x 2 (Managers in consulting), even at $18K/month, a $10K mortgage is insane. If one of us gets laid off, we're under water lol. I don't think that 100K - 150K range of people can compete on buying a house, unless they're only at the mid-point of their careers. A better breakdown is probably $150 - 200K+ earners.

Some of my previous bosses were baffled that you could earn $400K through small businesses locally and still need to consider if they can buy an older house in proper Van.

[ssjGoku69]

yeahh. 3.63% right now.. 35 year amortization.
Bumped up mortgage payment by $600/month which should lower the amortization.

It's scary to see the breakdown of the mortgage payment showing ~$880 interest per month last year to ~$1,800 per month now. And it'll only get worse with the future interest rate hikes projected for the second half of the year

[quasi]

I'm locked into a reasonable rate for another 30 months, I wonder what it's going to look like in 2-1/2 years? I guess only time will tell lol.

I've never done a variable and it's never paid off until this very moment, long term I'm a huge loser not going variable. My first mortgage was over 6% but the amount I borrowed was a lot less than I owe I now.

[Gerbs]

I'm probably team variable in 2024. But expecting to pay like 6.2% Prime +- 0.5%. Minus would be a major win.

[westopher]

My realtor is still sending me properties in the 900k range for 900 sq/ft.
Read the room man.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

Just curious at what household income would you be comfortable offering $1.7 - 1.9M for a house? Mortgage + PPtax will be around $10K/month @ 6%.

At $100K individual income you're taking home $6K/month, $156K takes home $9k/month.

Lets assume both me and my partner make $156k x 2 (Managers in consulting), even at $18K/month, a $10K mortgage is insane. If one of us gets laid off, we're under water lol. I don't think that 100K - 150K range of people can compete on buying a house, unless they're only at the mid-point of their careers. A better breakdown is probably $150 - 200K+ earners.

Some of my previous bosses were baffled that you could earn $400K through small businesses locally and still need to consider if they can buy an older house in proper Van.

I think it'd take $500k in annual household to handle a $10k/mo mortgage as that household would be netting around $24k/mo or so. This assumes no rental income. It's doable at $400-450k but definitely would impact their standard of living relative to their income - eg. No Cayenne Turbo, just a Q7 or a base Cayenne. Vacations to Mexican resorts, not Caribbean resorts. (boohoo).

I don't think the consideration of whether one person loses their job or not should really figure into what you can/can't afford. I'm the big earner in my household and we wouldn't calculate what we can buy based on the risk that I get laid off or not especially considering how in demand people like me are.