Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[westopher]

Impressive rate of growth since they have job postings at $17.00/hr. Or are those the 160hr/week immigrant parents you’re talking about? Then your math checks out.

[68style]

The salmonella is a free perk

[bcrdukes]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

Yeah ok Mr.Happysilp why not suggest everyone live at home rent free until they have a down payment too.

His mom and wife probably told him to stay home too lol

[westopher]

Easy to save money for a down payment when you've been living in quarantine for your whole adult life.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by westopher

Easy to save money for a down payment when you've been living in quarantine for your whole adult life.

That's the Millennial/Gen Z special.

Stay at home from 18 to 30, have school paid for, and boast about how you can save $100K down payment by 30 on a $40K salary if you worked harder!

[westopher]

They don’t have a choice but to do that though. The people who brag about how they were able to do it, so why can’t everyone are the fucking worst. Whatever generation they are from. 95% of them had help that they are too narcissistic to acknowledge.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by westopher

They don’t have a choice but to do that though. The people who brag about how they were able to do it, so why can’t everyone are the fucking worst. Whatever generation they are from. 95% of them had help that they are too narcissistic to acknowledge.

I'm cool with everyone doing it, I encourage it. I did it as well.

But you can't boast about how you did everything lol. If anything feels like I didn't do anything. The down payment is simply rent, groceries, insurance, utilities that were freebies so you got to save it for those 6 years.

[westopher]

I totally agree. If you have the means for help. Take it. I’ll happily do it for my kid if I can. My mom busted her ass to give me the best start I could have. I have friends who’s parents have handed them the world and they’ve refused to take it, while still crediting them for giving them everything. It’s all about attitude. Almost no one of our generation has done it alone. If you believe “hard work is all it takes” you’re fuckin delusional.

[68style]

I always like this analogy, it's about being an entrepreneur but perfectly describes all these situations:

Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something.

Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on.

Rich kids can afford many throws. If they want to, they can try over and over and over again until they hit something and feel good about themselves. Some keep going until they hit the center bullseye, then they give speeches or write blog posts about "meritocracy" and the salutary effects of hard work.

Poor kids aren't visiting the carnival. They're the ones working it.

[Alpine]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

That's the Millennial/Gen Z special.

Stay at home from 18 to 30, have school paid for, and boast about how you can save $100K down payment by 30 on a $40K salary if you worked harder!

Or, move out at 18, take out 40k in student loans, give 100k to your landlord to buy another home by 30 on a $40k salary lol.

[sdubfid]

Hard work is all it takes. The same formula has applied since the gold rush. Leave a city to work in a remote location doing blue collar work. Acquire resources and then go back to city.

[Badhobz]

Duh! You just gotta Gamble that student loan

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Alpine

Or, move out at 18, take out 40k in student loans, give 100k to your landlord to buy another home by 30 on a $40k salary lol.

I mean for some of my friends who moved to Vancouver from smaller towns or Calgary. You gotta live somewhere.

All the people that I've met in the last year and a half or so that have moved out. They're doing insanely well, they have more hustle to survive when rent is on the line.

[westopher]

Report came out that in the first quarter of 2022, 1/4 homes in the US were purchased by investment firms.
Numbers aren’t tracked in canada, but they say it’s substantially less. Even if it’s 10% though, that’s a very worrying situation for a country with a supply issue. That doesn’t include personal investment properties either.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by westopher

Report came out that in the first quarter of 2022, 1/4 homes in the US were purchased by investment firms.
Numbers aren’t tracked in canada, but they say it’s substantially less. Even if it’s 10% though, that’s a very worrying situation for a country with a supply issue. That doesn’t include personal investment properties either.

My friend sold 2 detached homes to blackrock investment group. They're buying SFH's in East/South Van

[bcrdukes]

Blackrock

For transparency, I have a financial stake in Blackrock's real estate investment portfolio.

[68style]

^ I thought you just liked that it sounds like blackcock

[Alpine]

Originally Posted by westopher

Because the jobs that exist here need people to fill them. If you don’t have anyone who can live in a city fill the jobs, what the fuck is the plan for the city to actually function?

We will have a service "economy" (if we aren't there already). Workers (temp/perm) are imported in via immigration channels to fill the service jobs. Those that have equity/wealth will continue to multiply their wealth. Look towards "less developed" countries where the wealthy elite sit behind gated communities and the poor live in slums working service jobs to serve the wealthy. I would argue that third world countries become first world countries, then revert back into third world countries when the inequality gap gets too large. I'm not defending this nor do I like this cause I'll be fucked too, but this is what I see happening.

Aren't you in the restaurant industry? Don't you have a front-row seat to this?

[bcrdukes]

Originally Posted by 68style

^ I thought you just liked that it sounds like blackcock

[westopher]

This is far beyond cooks and the people that make your coffee. This is nurses, doctors, paramedics, social workers, teachers, etc.
You’re right though, soon it’s just going to be rich people and poor people with nothing in between, but the poor people won’t be low wage workers. It will just be one big Hastings and main.
That said, when does the city reach the point where it’s a shithole and property values tank? It has to exist, it’s just a matter of where the line is.

[Alpine]

Originally Posted by westopher

This is far beyond cooks and the people that make your coffee. This is nurses, doctors, paramedics, social workers, teachers, etc.
You’re right though, soon it’s just going to be rich people and poor people with nothing in between, but the poor people won’t be low wage workers. It will just be one big Hastings and main.
That said, when does the city reach the point where it’s a shithole and property values tank? It has to exist, it’s just a matter of where the line is.

Yup, it will include all of those professions and more. The city will continue to hollow out, but entrepreneurs will find opportunities to provide services to the wealthy. An example of this is the rapidly growing FIRE industry in Vancouver.

The poor will be low-wage service workers living in "slums", just like they are around the world. We're actually already there, it's just not in our face. There are numerous rental slum buildings in Vancouver that house 10 immigrant workers/etc in a 5-bedroom house. 80% (using the 80/20 rule) of minimum wage jobs that locals do not want to do are already occupied by immigrant workers. And yes, the homeless population will balloon.

When does the city reach a point where it's a shithole and property values tank? It depends on how segregated the slums are from the rest of the city and how attractive Vancouver remains in comparison to the rest of the world. We can use the DTES as an example - I believe it is going to double/triple/quadruple in size in our lifetime and the majority of our homeless population will reside in this area. Property values in that entire area will tank, but an area like Kitsilano will continue to appreciate because it is segregated (aka a "gated" community) from the poor.

[waddy41]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

My friend sold 2 detached homes to blackrock investment group. They're buying SFH's in East/South Van

Not good that there will be less supply available for actual home buyers

However, would renters feel more safe renting from Blackrock vs. mom/pop landlords?

Blackrock can withstand being cashflow negative and wait for property values to rise. They're not going to play games to try to evict you. They can't have their parents/children "move in" to boot you out

How are Aquilini's, Bosa, etc. as landlords .. ?

[Great68]

There's pros and cons to both. No one really talks much about the pros of Mom & pop rentals.

I lived in a mom & pop rental for 5 years. It was fantastic for us. We got to know them on a personal level (The husband later became my dentist). They were very flexible, treated us well, and never once raised the rent in those 5 years.

I feel like a professional management firm is going to be very by the book, expect annual increases, and you're just a number to them. Expect no personal connection.

[EvoFire]

Parents accepted an offer on their place, older (35yr) condo around Cambie and Marine. Lost about 120k from peak. Older more expensive units would be the first to fall.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by waddy41

Not good that there will be less supply available for actual home buyers

However, would renters feel more safe renting from Blackrock vs. mom/pop landlords?

Blackrock can withstand being cashflow negative and wait for property values to rise. They're not going to play games to try to evict you. They can't have their parents/children "move in" to boot you out

How are Aquilini's, Bosa, etc. as landlords .. ?

I have minor experience. One of my contracted companies has 200+ units mixing from company property and landlords. We have a hard time evicting because it'll require legal fees that outweigh tenants paying late, RTB eviction is a 3 to 12 month process, plus close to < 10% chance of collection. It's way easier to talk to tenants and workout a payment plan that works. By then they'll usually negotiate some kind of term where they leave on their own but leave a few months rent on the table.

If you're a good tenant. property management companies are the way to go. We can't evict you because no family member is moving in. If we sell the unit, I believe you're still protected if new owner doesn't move in. Agents want commission and respond really to fill the unit. Agents also fix things quickly as we have a list of contractors for everything. We aren't stingy on pricing as long as its standard. Rent is only increased by the RTB limit.

Looking at a lot of our properties, so many people have locked in cheap 2012+ 2BR to TH's in lower mainland for $1,800 to 2,400 in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Richmond, Surrey.