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thats so weird. honestly, the software in my hitlerbox is fine. i haven't had any issues with it.
I don't get why they want to reinvite the damn wheel (typical German attitude) and create their own software company which proceeded to lose 12 billion dollars so far and still can't get a decent product out.
I was playing around with the ID Buzz configurator yesterday. $88k for a First Edition AWD before taxes....
Pricing is not far off from a loaded EV9 in the 3-row 'mainstream' people mover segment, and I can see some buyers paying an extra premium for the unique styling. But I can't imagine there are too many customers in that segment, knowing that these will also depreciate worse than luxury cars.
I'm hoping there'll be a lower trim level that starts closer to $65k, in the area where the Siennas / Odysseys max out in pricing.
I think those looking at cars above 65k do not care as much about price but more about availability and specs.
I can see this are holding value much better than a fully spec'd Model Y or EV9 and I would totally purchase one if stealerships keep it at MSRP.
But I think the id buzz will fail similar to the ioniq 5. they overhyped the product and took way too long. Most of the buyers probably already switched to Rivian and Tesla by now.
Ioniq 5 failing to sell is news to me, I really think they have momentum.
Segment: Rivian is also perceived as too expensive and large for most people; it's a much older and wealthier audience (think Aspen and Hamptons)
Momentum:
- Ioniq 5 reached 40% of Model Y volume in Q3 2024 stateside.
- All the photos Ioniq powering houses during hurricane I'm sure will help sales.
- In the new year, Ioniq 5 pricing will drop 3750, it'll get Tesla port and supercharging access in Jan.
Tesla Headwinds Technical
- Model Y charges a bit too slow for US road tripping (Ioniq charges 2X faster).
- Model Y refresh will be a lot more mild than Model 3 since the acoustic glass/suspension refresh is already in Image
- Gen Zers are also catching onto Tesla regen by default not being very smooth + suspension being bumpy in their ubers, even the white chicks are complaining on TikTok.
- Best case scenario, you look like a OC suburb fuckboi or you went to Rutgers in NJ and driving your dads car
- Medium case scenario, your uber just arrived (this is like Camry SE image).
- Worst case scenario, you're a trump supporter because of Elon politics. IMO worse than being religious or smoking in Silicon Valley
__________________ There's a phallic symbol infront of my car
Quote:
MG1: in fact, a new term needs to make its way into the American dictionary. Trump............ he's such a "Trump" = ultimate insult. Like, "yray, you're such a trump."
bcrdukes yray fucked bcrdukes up the nose
dapperfied yraisis
dapperfied yray so waisis
FastAnna you literally talk out your ass
FastAnna i really cant
FastAnna yray i cant stand you
I was sitting in a Niro EV, for an Uber and you could tell the interior is pretty low rent. Lots of plastics, cloth. You sit pretty high up too due to the battery? But definitely you can tell it's an economy car.
I saw a soul flip over on the McGill on ramp to second narrows
it's a fucking solid box
__________________ There's a phallic symbol infront of my car
Quote:
MG1: in fact, a new term needs to make its way into the American dictionary. Trump............ he's such a "Trump" = ultimate insult. Like, "yray, you're such a trump."
bcrdukes yray fucked bcrdukes up the nose
dapperfied yraisis
dapperfied yray so waisis
FastAnna you literally talk out your ass
FastAnna i really cant
FastAnna yray i cant stand you
Are Ioniq 5s still hard to get? I see so many in stock on websites!
__________________ Do Not Put Aftershave on Your Balls. -604CEFIRO Looks like I'm gonna have some hot sex again tonight...OOPS i got the 6 pack. that wont last me the night, I better go back and get the 24 pack! -Turbo E kinda off topic but obama is a dilf - miss_crayon Honest to fucking Christ the easiest way to get a married woman in the mood is clean the house and do the laundry.....I've been with the same girl almost 17 years, ask me how I know. - quasi
Ioniq 5 failing to sell is news to me, I really think they have momentum.
Segment: Rivian is also perceived as too expensive and large for most people; it's a much older and wealthier audience (think Aspen and Hamptons)
Momentum:
- Ioniq 5 reached 40% of Model Y volume in Q3 2024 stateside.
- All the photos Ioniq powering houses during hurricane I'm sure will help sales.
- In the new year, Ioniq 5 pricing will drop 3750, it'll get Tesla port and supercharging access in Jan.
Tesla Headwinds Technical
- Model Y charges a bit too slow for US road tripping (Ioniq charges 2X faster).
- Model Y refresh will be a lot more mild than Model 3 since the acoustic glass/suspension refresh is already in Image
- Gen Zers are also catching onto Tesla regen by default not being very smooth + suspension being bumpy in their ubers, even the white chicks are complaining on TikTok.
- Best case scenario, you look like a OC suburb fuckboi or you went to Rutgers in NJ and driving your dads car
- Medium case scenario, your uber just arrived (this is like Camry SE image).
- Worst case scenario, you're a trump supporter because of Elon politics.
The main problem with Hyundai... or any other EV company for that matter is the lack of overall planning to shift toward EV.
800V architecture for that 350kw charging speed sounds great on paper. But 350kw chargers that works reliably is hard to come by. More often than not... they are charging at sub 200kw if lucky.
Many manufacturers are still in that ICE car mentality where "I'd build the car, the rest is on you" ideology is still dominant.
This mentality is what's slowing them down.
That's why here in NA EV scene, it's Tesla vs. others.
If you look at hyper-competitive EV market in China... it's whole other story and it kinda give you a sense what's coming our way.
It has gone so far that it makes more sense to get EV as your next car in China than an ICE, all within a span of 5yrs or so.
But other than Tesla, there is no other non-Chinese brand within the top 10 chart. It's not that they didn't want to. But there is no way they can compete.
I don’t think it’s just the mentality. I’m pretty sure it’s because their production models are completely based off suppliers.
The traditional automakers aren’t agile like tesla or rivian or lucid. By the time they make a request for some component, let the suppliers bid on the price, test it, and incorporate it into a new build, it’s already outdated. That’s why EVs from most traditional automakers suck.
These little start ups aren’t bound by these restrictions so it’s much easier to test , build, test, build new stuff. And Tesla is vertically integrated so it’s even easier to control their production.
Although there's pros and cons, I think we are starting the see convergence.
Tesla:
- Great app
- Stupid shit like window trim, paint, and steering wheels go bad within 2 years in US climate
- Starting to learn mature automaker stuff like sound proofing
VW / MB:
- Can't build an app to save a life or their economy
- Gets the standard car stuff right
- Starting to beat Tesla at their own game with autonomy
GM / Ford:
- Low key killing it software and self driving wise; Ford's app is now really fucking good
- GM's 800V batteries are monster chargers
- Both are getting flexible with mid-year improvements that ship as soon as ready (Supercharging access, BlueCruise updates, improved charging curve, etc)
I'm excited to see the tone of the posts on the Tesla owners groups on FB change from "My car got a scrape on the bumper... how should I handle this because it's SO SPECIAL?" to being a bunch of basic bitches driving Corollas of the electric world lol
^^ Corolla of the electric world is the best, #1 selling most support. Your legacy makers can only wish they have the demand and reliability of electric Corollas, let alone too chicken to let da Chinese into the market.
800V architecture for that 350kw charging speed sounds great on paper. But 350kw chargers that works reliably is hard to come by. More often than not... they are charging at sub 200kw if lucky.
This mentality is what's slowing them down.
That's why here in NA EV scene, it's Tesla vs. others.
It has gone so far that it makes more sense to get EV as your next car in China than an ICE, all within a span of 5yrs or so.
But other than Tesla, there is no other non-Chinese brand within the top 10 chart. It's not that they didn't want to. But there is no way they can compete.
Let's break it down - Vancouver's EV scene + pricing + infra is a solid 5 years behind the states; but entire Canada market moves less volume than Cali so it makes sense.
On Charging
Issue in SoCal is not enough chargers + mad lineups at EA; they gave out free charging to a lot of brands.
On 350kW chargers, this is the standard rollout with Electrify America now.
Infrastructure bill is also means all 150kWs going to become 350kW in next year or so.
Many gas stations have both superchargers and EA on the same lot.
From Boston to DC, you have them every 10 minutes on the highway.
& every single one I tried did deliver 230kW for me in an EV6.
I now even have 500kW fast charging in Times Square.
On Pricing
US leases with state and federal subsidy makes a lot of these 300/mo of less, even a 13 month lease on Ioniq 5.
China's registration fees and plating for EVs is way easier, NY is also moving this way with no new TLC uber plates for non EVs and I fully expect congestion charge will make EVs exempt.
I expect in the next 2 years, it will be EV for at least 50% of buyer in US; they already outpace hybrid deliveries.
Canada's MRSP pricing and incomes are worse so will take a hot minute.
On unique US Market dynamics
Yes, Tesla's app, home charger, and supercharging is still best.
But in the US, politics, image, and aversion to trying new brands is so real for consumer goods (I used to work on Windows Phone team, we have a ton of market research differentiating China/EU markets where we sold well vs. North America). I cannot emphasize enough how much EV buyers want to avoid looking like Trump supporters and/or uncle from Edison NJ.
Also unique to US, electrical grid is less resilient in some states and electrical costs can be in the low-mid 4 figures; GM/Hyundai aren't just selling a car, they're selling a battery backup for house/solar and saving you hundreds by storing cheap off peak electricity.
Tesla sales are now flat at 166k in Q3 with Cybertruck production now outpacing demand (20k price drop!). I expect them to stay at around 150k.
GM's now at 44k incl. the Honda Prologue; Silverado/Sierra still ramping. I fully expect GM will 20-30% market share, 100k+ units and rival Tesla in the year 2 years with their combo of fast charging, great experience, hands free highway driving, and form factor.
Let's break it down - Vancouver's EV scene + pricing + infra is a solid 5 years behind the states; but entire Canada market moves less volume than Cali so it makes sense.
On Charging
Issue in SoCal is not enough chargers + mad lineups at EA; they gave out free charging to a lot of brands.
On 350kW chargers, this is the standard rollout with Electrify America now.
Infrastructure bill is also means all 150kWs going to become 350kW in next year or so.
Many gas stations have both superchargers and EA on the same lot.
From Boston to DC, you have them every 10 minutes on the highway.
& every single one I tried did deliver 230kW for me in an EV6.
I now even have 500kW fast charging in Times Square.
On Pricing
US leases with state and federal subsidy makes a lot of these 300/mo of less, even a 13 month lease on Ioniq 5.
China's registration fees and plating for EVs is way easier, NY is also moving this way with no new TLC uber plates for non EVs and I fully expect congestion charge will make EVs exempt.
I expect in the next 2 years, it will be EV for at least 50% of buyer in US; they already outpace hybrid deliveries.
Canada's MRSP pricing and incomes are worse so will take a hot minute.
On unique US Market dynamics
Yes, Tesla's app, home charger, and supercharging is still best.
But in the US, politics, image, and aversion to trying new brands is so real for consumer goods (I used to work on Windows Phone team, we have a ton of market research differentiating China/EU markets where we sold well vs. North America). I cannot emphasize enough how much EV buyers want to avoid looking like Trump supporters and/or uncle from Edison NJ.
Also unique to US, electrical grid is less resilient in some states and electrical costs can be in the low-mid 4 figures; GM/Hyundai aren't just selling a car, they're selling a battery backup for house/solar and saving you hundreds by storing cheap off peak electricity.
Tesla sales are now flat at 166k in Q3 with Cybertruck production now outpacing demand (20k price drop!). I expect them to stay at around 150k.
GM's now at 44k incl. the Honda Prologue; Silverado/Sierra still ramping. I fully expect GM will 20-30% market share, 100k+ units and rival Tesla in the year 2 years with their combo of fast charging, great experience, hands free highway driving, and form factor.
Agree to many aspects of your post. But TBH, I think much of it won't matter all that much once we enter the era of autonomous cars.
I have had FSD for a long while now (I added it not long after getting the Model 3 in 2019) and the progress is staggering.
It went from something I would only try to use on long road trips to something that I use day-to-day so that I don't need to actually maneuver throughout my drive.
Auto-driving... imho, has been solved. It's about some edge cases. Say one of the recent example of intervention I got was they blocked off the whole stretch of HWY99 on both lanes for repaving and put cones (far in between) that made every car to drive to the very limit of the shoulder super slow. FSD would drive on the shoulder fine but would try to merge onto the hwy as the car in front was driving too slow. But that has more to do with the "assertive mode" I was in where it would automatically take lane changes if it feels traffic is moving too slow.
But for regular daily driving, Tesla FSD can already do 95%+ of my daily driving. They might not drive exactly as I would (say some routes that I would take personally for less traffic while FSD prioritizes major roads), but I would say to get me safely from point A to B, it can already do that.
I think within 5yrs from now, assuming our politicians can be competent enough to pass the regulations, driving will be something most do for pleasure but not something they have to anymore.
Agree to many aspects of your post. But TBH, I think much of it won't matter all that much once we enter the era of autonomous cars.
I have had FSD for a long while now (I added it not long after getting the Model 3 in 2019) and the progress is staggering.
It went from something I would only try to use on long road trips to something that I use day-to-day so that I don't need to actually maneuver throughout my drive.
Auto-driving... imho, has been solved. It's about some edge cases. Say one of the recent example of intervention I got was they blocked off the whole stretch of HWY99 on both lanes for repaving and put cones (far in between) that made every car to drive to the very limit of the shoulder super slow. FSD would drive on the shoulder fine but would try to merge onto the hwy as the car in front was driving too slow. But that has more to do with the "assertive mode" I was in where it would automatically take lane changes if it feels traffic is moving too slow.
But for regular daily driving, Tesla FSD can already do 95%+ of my daily driving. They might not drive exactly as I would (say some routes that I would take personally for less traffic while FSD prioritizes major roads), but I would say to get me safely from point A to B, it can already do that.
I think within 5yrs from now, assuming our politicians can be competent enough to pass the regulations, driving will be something most do for pleasure but not something they have to anymore.
Personally as a software engineer, I don't think pure autonomous driving is going to be a thing until we take all self drivers off the road. The moment you add the human element in, all calculations are thrown out the window.
I can't argue that perhaps we are 80% there, but that last 20% is going to take 10x the effort we've put in, and that'll take you 80% of the 20%. Once you at at 96%, that last 4% is gonna take 10x of the 10x of the effort, and you'll never be able to hit 100% coverage.
But beyond that, I think it's less to do with politics but rather liability, laws, and insurance. They need to figure out who needs to be at fault when accidents do happen, and the decision branching of the car will differ based on that. It's time for the lawyers to battle it out and the politicians then to accept what was decided upon. Then those laws get challenged, sprinkle in a few precedence cases, modifications to software behaviour based on those cases, THEN maybe we have good autonomous driving.
As it stands, you are taking a risk if you drive on surface streets with self driving. If not you taking a risk then you are risking the other users on the road, be it other drivers, bicyclists, pedestrians, etc.
Fsd has summon now, so who's insurance covers it when no one is in the car lol. And in that case shouldn't other road users bikers and scooters have to buy insurance then. Since they can hit people too.
Personally as a software engineer, I don't think pure autonomous driving is going to be a thing until we take all self drivers off the road. The moment you add the human element in, all calculations are thrown out the window.
I can't argue that perhaps we are 80% there, but that last 20% is going to take 10x the effort we've put in, and that'll take you 80% of the 20%. Once you at at 96%, that last 4% is gonna take 10x of the 10x of the effort, and you'll never be able to hit 100% coverage.
But beyond that, I think it's less to do with politics but rather liability, laws, and insurance. They need to figure out who needs to be at fault when accidents do happen, and the decision branching of the car will differ based on that. It's time for the lawyers to battle it out and the politicians then to accept what was decided upon. Then those laws get challenged, sprinkle in a few precedence cases, modifications to software behaviour based on those cases, THEN maybe we have good autonomous driving.
As it stands, you are taking a risk if you drive on surface streets with self driving. If not you taking a risk then you are risking the other users on the road, be it other drivers, bicyclists, pedestrians, etc.
I think we need to get actuaries in there.
Autonomous driving never needs to get to 100%. It just needs to be good enough that the economic liability it creates due to that residual imperfection, can be fully offset by the reduction in economic damages possible by replacing the human at the wheel.
E.g. distracted driving, DUI, falling asleep at the wheel, road rage, complete incompetence, etc.
I mean you would certainly be better and less accident-prone than the autonomous driving system, but is that true for all drivers on the road? In aggregate, it just needs to be better than the average, and then we'll have hit the inflection point, and no more engineering effort needs to be spent on refinement (it would just be a "nice-to-have").
No, Tesla FSD doesn't crash into anything now and I was never in the position that I might be getting too close to my comfort, not since V12 at least.
The way I see FSD or Robotaxi is this... for regular driving and 99% of the routes, it has no problem. As EvoFire pointed out, it is about those extreme cases where human factor got into.
But one way I see out of this is simple... just never get into a situation where FSD needs to deal with them for now unless absolutely necessary.
Tesla has a fleet of 1M+ vehicles on road. For them to come up, whether from Google's feed or wherever, with a list of potential hazard/complicated situations, shouldn't be too hard.
And for FSD to take someone from A to B, and assuming multiple routing is available, just take the route with least amount of complex situations.
Assuming that's the case, I will go as far as saying FSD can do 100% of my driving now and can be safer than most human drivers. It is that good. Most of my passengers couldn't even tell that I wasn't driving when I took them. And the fact that FSD system would never get distracted like we often do.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
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