Will the Canadian dollar go up soon?
 

Hey Guys,

I need your in sight about this. I will be having my wedding overseas this December. I need your advice if I should send money now or wait later this year.

Do you think our dollar will go up soon?

Cheers

Thanks in advance :)

Let me check the magic 8 ball:

http://www.magic8ball.org/wordpress/...he_Answers.png

Well shit, there you go

I predict it will stop at 1.5, and then settle to around 1.3 for a while.

What am I predicting it based on? Absolutely nothing.

Well, the barrel of oil right now is $31, apparently by the end of the year it will be roughly $50. That's here in Fort McMurray anyway.

I don't see it dropping too much more, I'd roll the dice and hang on as long as you can in hopes that it goes up. With that being said who knows how much it'll actually go up.

It already drop to .70 v usd.

@cdizzle_996 will it drop further to .50? If it does go up it wont be up really fast right?

Thanks!

Lol it's all speculation we can only hope but theres no black and white answer here

I really don't know what to think considering how oil is sliding. every week I'm seeing it go down more.

I guess not many people remember 2002.

I personally think we have reached the low end, barring any drastic shift in global economies, or some sort of devastating event, I think we are going to sit inside the .7 to .75 range for the next little bit. I doubt we will see a drop to 2002 levels. We've reached the markets double bottom at this point.

well, this may all change if the BoC lowers rates (which they may have to do as the economy STINKS)

i'd just buy now - if you can afford to go on this wedding trip, you can afford the 5% you may save / lose by locking in now.

live your life, stop worrying about things outside of your control.

if you really are worried, buy 1/2 now, then 1/2 before you go - hedge your risk!

^I would do as he says. 1/2 and 1/2. Hedge it.

Don't listen to anybody saying something is too low to fall or too high to rise in the market. Or anyone that says "hope".

In case you didn't know, we've dipped below the 70 cents mark now.

For the time being, I'd personally expect it to go lower still in the foreseeable future (i.e some time this year), perhaps to the 64 - 65 cents level. But obviously, a lot will depend on how international factors play out.

From current economic perspective, all looks toward China. Until China recovers, all commodities will be low, and that drags down loonie, which is heavily influenced by commodity prices.

Oil is in a deep shit because the market is flooded with it. With nothing but bad news coming out of China, that means no immediate increase in demand. US is the largest consumer, but its demand has been fairly stable for the last 2 decades, with cars (a major source of consumption of oil in US) shifting toward more efficient or outright oil-free, the demand isn't likely to increase in the next decade.

So, that leaves China, the second largest consumer... until there's stability in China, don't expect loonie to stabilize. Any expectations are just that, expectations.

^^ Don't forget to include the suppliers as well. The Middle East is madly pumping all the oil it can get out from the ground. As the suppliers, I cannot understand why they are willing to sabotage themselves and their own profits.

With an oversupply of oil, the loonie is going to continue to suck.

The reasoning on why OPEC doesn't cut supply is complicated, but it narrows down to the fact that it would do little to the long-term pricing of oil.

Before the advancement in oil extraction technologies, supply had huge influences on prices. But now that they solved the problem (no longer limited to vertical, or V/U shaped operations), reducing the supply on cheap/easy oil would simply fuel the development on expensive/difficult oil; something that OPEC is trying to avoid at all cost.

However, it's right that the there's an oversupply in the market. It's more similar to the case of aluminum, which used to be very expensive to isolate. Once cheap method came out, there was nothing to do to bring up the price again.

CAD is heading for the low 60's.

It's funny, when oil first started to drop and this thread was made:

http://www.revscene.net/forums/70017...-crashing.html

Everyone was happy. "Yay gas prices will come down", "Fuck AB anyway", and all that other non-sense. Now who's laughing? We're all headed up shit creek with no paddle exactly as I said we would be.

With that said if Oil (and other comodities) continues to drop then so will the price of our dollar. I'm hoping oil prices stabilize for the time being within that $30-$35, that way historically our dollar should sit inside my previously mentioned number of .7 to .75.

Realistically this is short term, if the prices don't start climbing by summer, next fall we could certainly be set to see mid to low .6 prices.

I think the inflation or the stagflation that Canada is experiencing is going to destroy the little economic activities that we still have.

BoC chose to ease monetary policies while really, they should keep the inflation under control. I was just at WalMart yesterday, and a lb of broccoli is $5?!? I remember it being no more than $3 just a year ago.

Going through my personal expense sheet, I had ~1000 on average in groceries (includes anything from a supermarket) for the last 12 months, and 2014 was roughly the same. But except x'mas, my family was in the US the entire time comparing to the year before. So, that 1000 was really only for myself (and lifestyle... still have F&F visiting from time to time, but it's the same as before) and the 3 occasional visit from wife & kid during a few weekend. It gives an idea how much more expensive groceries have become. I'd guesstimate that if my wife and kid were here full time, I'd easily break 1600 on groceries. And my consumption habit didn't change one bit. I didn't suddenly start indulging on lobsters or some other expensive stuff.

As explained by SumAznGuy over at the RE thread, the hugely expensive grocery bills we are seeing right now is more of a matter of coincidence, with multiple factors such as:

- poor loonie exchange rate
- being in the winter months (where local farms aren't at all productive)
- supply side issues from Cali and Mexico

I am hoping this will be temporary, as 2 of the 3 issues should work to resolve themselves over time. But there is no changing to our pathetic loonie exchange rate though.

you cannot expect prices to 'go back to normal'.

of course the last item will sort itself out, but the loonie has lost 40% of its value over recent times - this will be shown directly in consumer prices.

Most inputs to Canadian life are acquired in large part in USD - everything is going up in price (maybe except gas at the pump).

I recently came back to van to visit family, boy was i shocked at the prices i was paying!

this is the new normal in canada, driven by the weak loonie, due to the economy being far too overweight on commodities (canada, australia, middle east - all hurting)

Not expecting things / prices to go back to the "old normal" at all. A "new normal" should be reached once winter is over, but like you said -- the new normal is going to raid my wallet more than the old normal.

In fact, I am planning to move a few purchases ahead of schedule out of concern that the retailer will adjust prices to reflect the ever dropping loonie. :(

Thank you everyone for the suggestion. I will do this.... send 1/2 now and 1/2 after. The CAD will just keep dropping. If it goes up by the end of the year it just a bonus to me :)

PS I will time deposit the money to gain interest as well :)

While I do not have a crystal ball, either $15-$20 oil or another Bank of Canada overnight rate cut will ensure we stay at sub 70 levels, even if 68-69, but if one happens, the other becomes more likely, and the combination of both = $1 CAD = $0.65 USD IMO.

Mark

demand for chinese crap should pick up with the low yuan = more demand for petrolium = high demand for oil = oil sector should rebound = cad $ should normalize

- thats what my crystal ball says.

- when that will happen, it's still cloudy....