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Vancouver Off-Topic / Current EventsThe off-topic forum for Vancouver, funnies, non-auto centered discussions, WORK SAFE. While the rules are more relaxed here, there are still rules. Please refer to sticky thread in this forum.
FiveThirtyEight, one of the best statistical forecaster, putting Biden's chances of winning at 87.8% now (350/538 electoral votes). I hope one way or the other, its a decisive win and not a win by a slim margin.
i honestly do think trump doesn't have the 'trump' card anymore by being an outsider.
last time even some dems and tons of otherwise sane voters voted for trump because he was a wildcard and they didn't want the status quo anymore. hillary was seen as too much of an establishment candidate and after a nasty and dirty primary against bernie, it left a sour taste in the mouths of many democrats. of course 12.2% is still a legitimate chance, but it's not directly comparable to 2016 in terms of trump having the wildcard hand. if the election is fair and there is no voter suppression then i think trump will surely lose, however voter suppression is alive and well in the US.
Joe Biden is even more corrupt and a bigger establishment candidate than Hilary was. Biden has been in office for 47 years, that's 19% of the history of the country. Think about that. And now he's supposed to be the people's hope for change? Now in 2020 with onset dementia he's going to change the country?
I think this thread has become an echo-chamber of delusion.
I am aware of his previous projection and even posted his 2016 odds a few pages back. I do believe he is a true academic and has integrity in his work, even if he has a political leaning one way or the other. He has written extensively about his model's performance, post-mortem, and I trust that he has improved his models since then. To his credit, he had given Trump a greater chance of winning the 2016 election compared to other major polls at that time. If you go back even further, Silver became famous in 2012 for forecasting that Obama would cruise to victory even as other political pundits were describing it as a tight race.
I'm not even a full on Biden supporter, but I hear his detractors say that garbage.
Please explain to me how a senator from Delaware is supposed to "change the country"? That is literally impossible. The same can easily be said about Trump, he's had 4 years in office, 2 years holding both the Senate and House, what fundamental policy agenda has he really accomplished?
It's such a strawman argument to say that, it holds no substance. When Obama was voted in the conservative argument was "He's too junior!", "He's barely been a senator!", now the argument against Biden is "He's been in government for so long!".
Which one is it?
As stats, nothing is assured given all the voter suppression tactics the Republicans have been playing with in this election. But given the record breaking early voter count (66 million), that news plays positive for Biden.
The more people that vote, the worse it is for Trump and the Republicans, which when you say that out loud, is quite illuminating, and saddening that we've become used to this idea of "minority governance".
Joe Biden is even more corrupt and a bigger establishment candidate than Hilary was. Biden has been in office for 47 years, that's 19% of the history of the country. Think about that. And now he's supposed to be the people's hope for change? Now in 2020 with onset dementia he's going to change the country?
I think this thread has become an echo-chamber of delusion.
if you don't understand that 71.4% is not 100%, then you just don't understand statistics enough for us to have this type of conversation.
Ted Cruz is the human embodiment of a poop swastika
He is up for re-election in 2022. Looking forward to casting that ballot
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MG1
She taught me right from wrong and always told me to stay positive and help others no matter how small the deed - that helping others gives us meaning to carry on. The sun is out today and it's a new day. Life is good. I just needed a slap in the face.
President Donald Trump’s campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016.
Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one over that time.
__________________ Until the lions have their own historians, the history of the hunt will always glorify the hunter.
You're right. I was wrong with that general statement.
He CAN do it, but he'll have to apply for admission and naturalization in the way that Conrad Black did it. He basically needs to immigrate, which would be ironic....
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MG1
She taught me right from wrong and always told me to stay positive and help others no matter how small the deed - that helping others gives us meaning to carry on. The sun is out today and it's a new day. Life is good. I just needed a slap in the face.
Willing to sell a family member for a few minutes on RS
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: North vancouver
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Lol they hired the guy that sent trump all the dick pill spam emails to do his online marketing.
"I like this guy. He knows how to sell. He's selling the dick pills let me tell you, I know, I know about the pills, huge penis. HUGE. Pills get you. The pills are for your dick. Let me tell you. They are doing wonderful things for the dick. He reminds me of me. He sells, he doesn't take no for an answer. Fake news media doesn't tell you. He can sell and I can sell."
__________________
98 technoviolet M3/2/5
Quote:
Originally Posted by boostfever
Westopher is correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fsy82
seems like you got a dick up your ass well..get that checked
Quote:
Originally Posted by punkwax
Well.. I’d hate to be the first to say it, but Westopher is correct.
I get a half dozen emails a day from the Trump campaign to my spam address. Hes pushing bigly now.
I call this one desperation.jpg
I'd guess they aren't actually from the campaign, it's just the usual scams targeting Trump supporters. I mean how much easier of a target could you get than them.
__________________ 1991 Toyota Celica GTFour RC // 2007 Toyota Rav4 V6 // 2000 Jeep Grand Cherokee
1992 Toyota Celica GT-S ["sold"] \\ 2007 Jeep Grand Cherokee CRD [sold] \\ 2000 Jeep Cherokee [sold] \\ 1997 Honda Prelude [sold] \\ 1992 Jeep YJ [sold/crashed] \\ 1987 Mazda RX-7 [sold] \\ 1987 Toyota Celica GT-S [crushed]
Quote:
Originally Posted by maksimizer
half those dudes are hotter than ,my GF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RevYouUp
reading this thread is like waiting for goku to charge up a spirit bomb in dragon ball z
Quote:
Originally Posted by Good_KarMa
OH thank god. I thought u had sex with my wife. :cry:
I'd guess they aren't actually from the campaign, it's just the usual scams targeting Trump supporters. I mean how much easier of a target could you get than them.
They are. I signed up for his campaign emails during the 2016 campaign because I thought it would be hilarious.
Who's laughing now?
I went to vote this morning. I became a citizen on Sept 25th, and my voter registration was post-marked for the 28th so this was the first day I could do it. Even though they hadn't sent me a voter registration card back yet, I could verify I was eligible by checking online.
Its a community center and voting took place in a gym. You walk in, they verify your eligibility digitally, and they hand you a little finger condom and an access code to the voting machine. Then you walk over to a little table with nylon blinds on either side (think of if you were using an ATM and had a privacy tent, made from actual tent material) with appropriate social distancing.
Its a digital system with on-screen prompts. Its not touchscreen mind you. Oh no. Its 2002 all over again with a giant Palm Pilot looking thing and a wheel that you turn (kind of like an old rotary telephone for those of us who remember that era) by sticking your finger in a slot on the wheel.
You have to choose your candidates one-by-one, with write-in votes needing to be entered one letter at a time. It took me forever to enter K-A-N-Y-E O-M-A-R-I W-E-S....well... you get it.
I chose my candidates who were clearly listed by name and political party, and then hit the "Finish" button after confirming my selections. After that, I got my sticker saying "I voted" so I can get a free donut at Krispy Kreme or whatever and bounced.
Over-all, it was smooth. I got there early in the day and cast my ballot early. This made the process pretty fucking pleasant.
There weren't any Trumpers out front like I've seen online. No Proud Boys "watching the polls" or whatever. Hell, there weren't even any Trump signs here.
Today is a very Vancouver-feeling day. Its about 12 or 13 degrees with cloud and light drizzle so maybe the Bubbas decided to stay home or something. But I expected worse.
Tucked all of my pictures into the spoiler below so I don't spam the thread.
Spoiler!
Houston has a HUGE Vietnamese and Chinese community so you see a lot of signage in all four major languages here. Voting is no exception. I don't recall seeing an option to change my voting language on the equipment but that doesn't mean it wasn't there. I just wasn't looking for it.
There were a bunch of Biden Harris signs but no Trump ones.
Don't get me wrong though, because the Trump ones are definitely out there. Usually in the country. On the way to the wedding I mentioned earlier in the thread I saw "Trump 2020 Because Fuck Your Feelings" sign which was super classy.
I didn't take a picture of my exact voting machine but this is what I used. You can see the scroll wheel I was talking about down at the lower right.
Different states have different systems so I think you'll see a wide variance in experiences. I don't trust paper ballots for this election cycle so I'm glad I got a chance to vote digitally.
I guess we'll see what happens in a week or so.
I attended Trump's inauguration in 2017. I was in DC for a school co-op with The Washington Center. It was a class specifically centered around the election and inauguration and the end of the 3 week program had us attending the actual ceremony. I hustled and traded up to what I thought were pretty good tickets. It took forever to walk through the security checkpoints and the weird maze of the re-mapped DC with streets cut off by police and protestors. When I got there I thought "At least I'll be able to witness history first hand" .
Turns out my ticket was CLOSE, but not good. I could barely see the stage and most of what was going on was blocked by these giant white sheets covering the bleachers installed for the ceremony. Not my picture but I've got arrows pointing to where I was at.
Spoiler!
All I know is that Kanye's inauguration is gonna be a whole lot more lit.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MG1
She taught me right from wrong and always told me to stay positive and help others no matter how small the deed - that helping others gives us meaning to carry on. The sun is out today and it's a new day. Life is good. I just needed a slap in the face.
@ el bastardo I like how the voting machine buttons have brail, but it’s all prompted on screen... that would have no feedback for a blind person. Maybe I’m missing something lol
lol why is the guy with a sword threatening that person, how do they know they're NOT voting for trump? imagine they were and that guy flipped them around
Trump is living that Cartoon Villain gimmick so hard
The best part is the song in the video is a song that trump uses at rallies. The song is actually a diss about about people like trump.
Line from the song:
Quote:
Some folks are born silver spoon in hand
Lord, don't they help themselves, no
But when the taxman come' to the door
Lord, the house lookin' like a rummage sale, yeah
fucker carlson claims he had damning hunter biden documents but where lost when they had them shipped from NY to L.A.
1. They didn't make copies?
2. Why couldn't they scan and e-mail them
3. Ever have a shipping company care so much about a lost package? He claims the shipping companies security team interviewed every single employee who touched the package and searched every plane, truck, and building from top to bottom. Ever have a shipping company try that hard to find a missing package?
The best part is the song in the video is a song that trump uses at rallies. The song is actually a diss about about people like trump.
Line from the song:
fucker carlson claims he had damning hunter biden documents but where lost when they had them shipped from NY to L.A.
1. They didn't make copies?
2. Why couldn't they scan and e-mail them
3. Ever have a shipping company care so much about a lost package? He claims the shipping companies security team interviewed every single employee who touched the package and searched every plane, truck, and building from top to bottom. Ever have a shipping company try that hard to find a missing package?
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
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Polls, and this 87.8% projection, mean absolutely nothing.
