Trump thread 2.0

[whitev70r]

Love how US put the beat down on Huawei and got Canada to do all the dirty work.

[Gumby]

If you were China, who would you want to be leading the US, Trump or Biden?

[westopher]

If you were Canada, who would you want leading the US, trump or Biden?
Seems more relevant to us.

[whitev70r]

Originally Posted by Gumby

If you were China, who would you want to be leading the US, Trump or Biden?

You can ask the same question, if you were any country in the world, who would you want to be leading US, Trump or Biden?

[Traum]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

You've said that before, and I asked you the following:

[I]If Trump is so "hard" on China, can you explain his complete collapse on ZTE? Seems to me his hard "stance" is mere grandstanding to his base. I'd say that's bolstered by the fact that Xi Ping hasn't sent any congratulations to Biden, I truly believe his hard stance is purely a manufactured one, and that China see less of an ally with the Biden administration.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...project-2018-5

The Business Insider link that you included here didn't work, but I am guessing it is this, right?

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...project-2018-5

The conflict of interest allegations are disconcerting, and I wouldn't rule it out as one of the reasons that Trump has given it a pass. At the same time, I would also say that ZTE may not be the biggest fish to catch because that honour falls on Huawei, and Trump has literally squeezed Huawei to death.

I seem to recall that ZTE was one of the earlier tech companies that the Trump administration went after. Potentially, I'd say we can view that as a warning shot fired to threaten China into submitting to the US. Now that the history is behind us, we can say that warning shot might have failed, but that's OK too because the Trump gov went after Huawei hard afterwards.

As a major developer for 5G tech, including infrastructure, Huawei was the crown jewel of China's international level company, and its international success plays very much into China's worldwide ambitions. Hunting it down resulted in world-wide consequences and ruined China's plans to gain control and influence at the international level. This was something that happened under Trump.

The truth is China is stronger than ever:

https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/why-...fter-covid-19/
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54594877

The BBC article referred to China's economic bounce back after COVID shut down the world economy. That is true -- I'd be stupid to deny that. But what I am going to ask is -- is that economic recovery something that would continue onward? and is the US and RoW doing something to change it?

China's economy bounced back after COVID because they were able to use measures that only an authoritarian government can enact to quickly bring down the the COVID numbers. It was also the result of the international community's failure to spread its manufacturing and supply chains for critical equipment across multiple sources. Until COVID can come under control, I don't think this situation will change. And when it comes to controlling COVID, my views are that both Trump as well as the American public bear the responsibility for being unable to effectively control it.

I would not put the reliance on China manufacturing on Trump -- it is the business sector's decision to create and continually feed that problem. On the other hand, Trump's America First policy has provided incentives for businesses to move back to the US as well as move out of China. From what I can see, Vietnam is a major beneficiary of this policy change, as is India. (I think iPhones were exclusively produced in China before. But now the bulk of the iPhone manufacturing has shifted to Indian. iPhone production in China will only produce units that are meant for Chinese market consumption.) Taiwan is also seeing some strong benefits from this as well, although it isn't only because of US encouraging supply chains to move out of China. The relocation of plants and supply chain are seriously hurting the long term Chinese economy.

Also, US has applied a number of very effective sanctions on China in the semiconductor and financial sectors. The technology export bans are killing large portions of the advanced Chinese tech sector (and not just Huawei) because the sector no longer has access to sophisticated semiconductor components. Chinese phones and made-in-China phones are soon going to become a thing of the past. I'd expect some degree of technology products (computer components, network infrastructure components) to be no longer made in China as well. This, too, will hurt the long term economy for China, and it seems extremely unlikely that China can catch up on their own on this because their manufacturing capabilities for this is at least several generations behind. The latest and most profitable semiconductors are produced in the 3 to 5 nm manufacturing process. I think China even has trouble to produce something in the 24nm process. That is a massive, massive gap, and there is no way for them to overcoming this in the foreseeable future.

US financial sactions on China are also causing quite a scare in the Chinese financial sector. Essentially, because of SWIFT and the use of USD, the US can effectivelly kill off any Chinese financial institution by denying them the use of USD.

These are policies that came into being under Trump, and they are part of Trump's China strategy.

• A little more than two months into her father’s presidency, Ivanka was awarded three new trademarks for her lifestyle brand in China on the same night she happened to sit next to Chinese President Xi Jinping during an official dinner at Mar-a-Lago. In 2018, she was awarded seven new trademarks that just happened to coincide with her father promising to save a Chinese telecommunications company that had previously been punished for violating trade sanctions with Iran and North Korea.

Esp in Chinese business culture, it is quite common to use personal favours to buy some goodwill from your business partner. I'd say the Ivanka tradmarks can be viewed under that light. Or with the US-China relationship gradually turning sour over Trump's term, it could also be a gesture from the Chinese side to attempt buying back some goodwill / thank Trump for sparing ZTE.

The media reported on this. Why has the media not done the same when it came to Hunter Biden's Ukraine and China dealings?

Perhaps I'm missing something here, but can you detail for me what Trump has done as a detriment to China, and how they are affected as of today by anything he has done?

I'm sure I am forgetting a lot of other stuff as well, but technology and financial sanctions are probably the most brutal damages Trump has inflicted on China.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

You can ask the same question, if you were any country in the world, who would you want to be leading US, Trump or Biden?

I dunno about every country in the world, but if I were Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or any number of ASEAN countries near the South China seas, I think I'd prefer Trump over Biden.

[twitchyzero]

where i drew the line in the sand against trump was the covid-19 response

not saying deaths of migrant kids, capitol insurrection, blm, california fires and masive list goes on weren't important issues but the magnitude of deaths is staggering

sure you can argue obama bush weren't saints and just as many if not more people died overseas as a result of their policies, these covid deaths were his OWN people and if he can't even serve Americans welfare and interests, then that's a dangerous leader that needs to go asap

[sonick]

Originally Posted by twitchyzero

sure you can argue obama bush weren't saints and just as many if not more people died overseas as a result of their policies

I actually had a similar shower-thought this morning that Trump is the first President in recent memory that hasn't started a war with a foreign nation.

After looking it up, he's the first president since Jimmy Carter who hasn't initiated conflict with a foreign country, which in my case, is actually the first president in my lifetime to not have started a war.

Interesting random realization.

[Traum]

Trump's horrid COVID response absolutely cost him the election. No doubt about that. Had he responded better to the pandemic, I don't think he would have lost.

Many people criticize Trudeau and his team's handling of COVID as well. But I would think that even if Trump had only done what Trudeau did as far as COVID responses were concerned, he would have still gotten his win.

[westopher]

Being able to start a war with a nation simultaneously to starting wars in your own country would be a difficult task.

[SkinnyPupp]

Another Trump toadie flushed down the toilet... He doesn't give a fuck about any of his allies. If they aren't named Trump, he'll backstab them and toss them to the side.

Twitter

[mikemhg]

Originally Posted by Traum

The Business Insider link that you included here didn't work, but I am guessing it is this, right?

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...project-2018-5

The conflict of interest allegations are disconcerting, and I wouldn't rule it out as one of the reasons that Trump has given it a pass. At the same time, I would also say that ZTE may not be the biggest fish to catch because that honour falls on Huawei, and Trump has literally squeezed Huawei to death.

I seem to recall that ZTE was one of the earlier tech companies that the Trump administration went after. Potentially, I'd say we can view that as a warning shot fired to threaten China into submitting to the US. Now that the history is behind us, we can say that warning shot might have failed, but that's OK too because the Trump gov went after Huawei hard afterwards.

As a major developer for 5G tech, including infrastructure, Huawei was the crown jewel of China's international level company, and its international success plays very much into China's worldwide ambitions. Hunting it down resulted in world-wide consequences and ruined China's plans to gain control and influence at the international level. This was something that happened under Trump.


The BBC article referred to China's economic bounce back after COVID shut down the world economy. That is true -- I'd be stupid to deny that. But what I am going to ask is -- is that economic recovery something that would continue onward? and is the US and RoW doing something to change it?

China's economy bounced back after COVID because they were able to use measures that only an authoritarian government can enact to quickly bring down the the COVID numbers. It was also the result of the international community's failure to spread its manufacturing and supply chains for critical equipment across multiple sources. Until COVID can come under control, I don't think this situation will change. And when it comes to controlling COVID, my views are that both Trump as well as the American public bear the responsibility for being unable to effectively control it.

I would not put the reliance on China manufacturing on Trump -- it is the business sector's decision to create and continually feed that problem. On the other hand, Trump's America First policy has provided incentives for businesses to move back to the US as well as move out of China. From what I can see, Vietnam is a major beneficiary of this policy change, as is India. (I think iPhones were exclusively produced in China before. But now the bulk of the iPhone manufacturing has shifted to Indian. iPhone production in China will only produce units that are meant for Chinese market consumption.) Taiwan is also seeing some strong benefits from this as well, although it isn't only because of US encouraging supply chains to move out of China. The relocation of plants and supply chain are seriously hurting the long term Chinese economy.

Also, US has applied a number of very effective sanctions on China in the semiconductor and financial sectors. The technology export bans are killing large portions of the advanced Chinese tech sector (and not just Huawei) because the sector no longer has access to sophisticated semiconductor components. Chinese phones and made-in-China phones are soon going to become a thing of the past. I'd expect some degree of technology products (computer components, network infrastructure components) to be no longer made in China as well. This, too, will hurt the long term economy for China, and it seems extremely unlikely that China can catch up on their own on this because their manufacturing capabilities for this is at least several generations behind. The latest and most profitable semiconductors are produced in the 3 to 5 nm manufacturing process. I think China even has trouble to produce something in the 24nm process. That is a massive, massive gap, and there is no way for them to overcoming this in the foreseeable future.

US financial sactions on China are also causing quite a scare in the Chinese financial sector. Essentially, because of SWIFT and the use of USD, the US can effectivelly kill off any Chinese financial institution by denying them the use of USD.

These are policies that came into being under Trump, and they are part of Trump's China strategy.


Esp in Chinese business culture, it is quite common to use personal favours to buy some goodwill from your business partner. I'd say the Ivanka tradmarks can be viewed under that light. Or with the US-China relationship gradually turning sour over Trump's term, it could also be a gesture from the Chinese side to attempt buying back some goodwill / thank Trump for sparing ZTE.

The media reported on this. Why has the media not done the same when it came to Hunter Biden's Ukraine and China dealings?


I'm sure I am forgetting a lot of other stuff as well, but technology and financial sanctions are probably the most brutal damages Trump has inflicted on China.

I see where your going with your thoughts here, I still believe China's decline in the 5g space was more a product of their own actions in regards to intellectual properties, and that of other Western democracies deciding to note continue with their infrastructure via Chinese companies. I feel that Trump has little to do with that, in the same way that I believe he had little to do with any upswings within the economy his first year or so in office.

Can you provide me any data in terms of the recent Trump policies and the adverse the measurable effect they've had to the manufacturing and tech sector in China (semiconductor tech, etc.).

I'm not arguing with you, I just want to see the data here, as I truly believe you're giving Trump more credit than he deserves in terms of these policies and their efficacy.

[SkinnyPupp]

The Trump vs China narrative is a big issue throughout China and Asia as well (Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc). As we can see with Traum, he has successfully built this narrative that he's tough on them, and is the best candidate to "keep them in check". When in reality, everything he's done has been self-serving, only done to perpetuate that narrative. Believing Trump is "the solution for China" is the same as believing he "actually won the election by a lot"

Mike is right that all the sanctions with regards to 5G would have been done by any administration, and it's being done by most of the rest of the world too. Including every Trump-hating country in the world

So now we have groups of pro Trump people in Taiwan, HK, and probably underground in China. Little mini-MAGAs that do nothing but serve to give him strength. This is another reason why an impeachment is so important. I was surprised to see that MeWe.com, which is promoted as an alternative to Facebook but is really where the former MAGAs are going after the Parler shutdown, is becoming very popular in HK. All these pro-democracy people are supporting a guy who is very much anti-democracy. I get it in a "enemy of my enemy is my friend" but Trump is nobody's friend but his own.

Not to mention Falun Gong and their Epoch Times media has basically become a MAGA propaganda publisher... Trump has made fools of so many people, and has somehow garnered support from everyone from white supremacists to weird but peaceful religions

[Zedbra]

The leader of Utah's Antifa-BLM movement, after bragging he was going to burn down the Capital, hurt police, later arrested by the FBI.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/u...states-capitol

Registered Democrat, son of NY Supreme Court Judge, pretending to be a Trump supporter, getting arrested. He cried in court.

https://abc7ny.com/aaron-mostofsky-s...judge/9589410/


Still terrorists? Or peaceful protestors now? Cuz, Trumpf is bad orange man, says gray man.

[SkinnyPupp]

Nope you're right, it was ANTIFA all along! You cracked the case!

[sonick]

Originally Posted by Zedbra

Registered Democrat, son of NY Supreme Court Judge, pretending to be a Trump supporter, getting arrested. He cried in court.

https://abc7ny.com/aaron-mostofsky-s...judge/9589410/


Still terrorists? Or peaceful protestors now? Cuz, Trumpf is bad orange man, says gray man.

Where in the article does it say he was a registered democrat and that he was pretending? Just coz you state two truths you think you can throw a lie in there?

All reports say he's got the same talk track as the rest of the terrorists that stormed the Capitol, the election was stolen blah blah blah.

Get that bullshit out of here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...iot-at-capitol

https://www.the-sun.com/news/2126261...capitol-riots/

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...-arrested.html

[68style]

Hahahaha yah sure a Democrat actor decided to dress in a CAVEMAN outfit and advertise that fact on social media so he could hide amongst the protestors and promote illegal activity amongst all the Republicans!

Really shrewd!

You been sniffing too many Harley fumes Zedbra, crack the garage a little when you’re running it in the winter

[twitchyzero]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

The Trump vs China narrative is a big issue throughout China and Asia as well (Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc). As we can see with Traum, he has successfully built this narrative that he's tough on them, and is the best candidate to "keep them in check". When in reality, everything he's done has been self-serving, only done to perpetuate that narrative. Believing Trump is "the solution for China" is the same as believing he "actually won the election by a lot"

Mike is right that all the sanctions with regards to 5G would have been done by any administration, and it's being done by most of the rest of the world too. Including every Trump-hating country in the world

So now we have groups of pro Trump people in Taiwan, HK, and probably underground in China. Little mini-MAGAs that do nothing but serve to give him strength. This is another reason why an impeachment is so important. I was surprised to see that MeWe.com, which is promoted as an alternative to Facebook but is really where the former MAGAs are going after the Parler shutdown, is becoming very popular in HK. All these pro-democracy people are supporting a guy who is very much anti-democracy. I get it in a "enemy of my enemy is my friend" but Trump is nobody's friend but his own.

the current policy from trump admin IS good for the indo-pacific stability, htf is that a narrative? Which other Western head of state has stuck their neck out for the neighbours that keep getting bullied by CCP in the past 20 years as much as Trump has? haha sure as fuck isnt trudeau nor obama. Hell wouldnt you have a clue, you live there.

uh huh because Biden is more promising on the China problem?

Trump was still shouting China virus mere days ago, how does that serve him at all?

5G's vulnerabilities wouldn't be underscored if it wasnt for the ongoing huawei case. I'm not convinced it would've happened under the barack/joe duo, they're more about the Russia problem

the heavily compromised WHO wouldn't be obvious if their largest backer didn't decouple

yes he's carrying out tasks or lack thereof like a vile piece of shit back home but which part of the pacific asia policy is anti-democratic? we're seeing the largest military buildup/conquest of our generation in said region so it's not self-serving to have some resistance and support for the republics' defense that's getting dwarfed by the months..if balance of power is tipped too unfavourably for one side it'll get quite problematic

[68style]

I think the problem is Trump is all talk.

He fucks with China verbally one day and then the next one he says he admires Xi (well, duh, he wants to be like him — emperor forever!) Slinny is right, everyone I know who lives in Asia (Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand) thinks Trump is the bomb because he talks tough to China and nobody else does but either their state controlled medias or underdeveloped knowledge base (or both) is preventing them from realizing its totally ineffectual and just an old man yelling at clouds.

The only time I ever even actually agree with Trump is when he says China needs to eat more shit on the whole virus thing than they have and also that they aren’t being kept in check politically or from a military perspective.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by twitchyzero

the current policy from trump admin IS good for the indo-pacific stability

How?

[Traum]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

I see where your going with your thoughts here, I still believe China's decline in the 5g space was more a product of their own actions in regards to intellectual properties, and that of other Western democracies deciding to note continue with their infrastructure via Chinese companies. I feel that Trump has little to do with that, in the same way that I believe he had little to do with any upswings within the economy his first year or so in office.

Mike,

As a general comment, I'd say that intertional diplomacy involving China is very much like a jungle fight between animals. China is a big and intimidating animal, so a lot of smaller countries would be afraid to engage China in any sort of combative situation on their own even if they severely dislike China. But if there is an alpha animal known as the US starting the fight first, the rest of the smaller animals would not hesitate to jump in to take a bite or two off China. And this is what happened with Huawei and the Huawei ban.

In May 2019, Trump signed an executive order that effectively bans Huawei from doing business with any organization that operates in the US on the grounds of national security. Prior to this, much of Europe and Canada was planning to hire Huawei as a major provider to their 5G infrastructure. But with US leading the charge, persistent persuasion and pressure from Trump and Pompeo have gradually turned that around. UK, for example, formally announced in July 2020 that Huawei 5G equipment must be removed from UK by 2027. Similarly, France announced a de factor ban on Huawei at a similar date. IMO, Pompeo deserves a lot of credit in this because he was the runner and traveler flying all around the world to do the persuasion legwork.

The ban also means that Huawei loses access to US-made components as well as those containing US technologies. The 2nd item here is really the killer because gob piles of stuff contact "US technologies". Everything from Google is US technology, so no Android OS (although the open source portion is still available, and Huawei brands that as their own "Harmony OS"), no Google services and features, and no Google Play Store. Various semiconductor chips that are used in the phones contain US technologies, so Huawei can't get its hands on SoC. (There is an *asterisk here, but you will see that a little later.)

Here is a good summary of the Huawei ban:

https://www.androidauthority.com/hua...id-ban-988382/

Can you provide me any data in terms of the recent Trump policies and the adverse the measurable effect they've had to the manufacturing and tech sector in China (semiconductor tech, etc.).

Unfortunately, coming up with measurable data that can show the adverse effect from the bans is difficult in a number of ways. First of all, although the initial executive order was signed in May 2019, extensions to the ban has occurred 3 times until April 2020 to allow more time for American businesses to make alternative arrangements. The extensions mean that throughout this period, Huawei was able to continue with its business in pretty much the same way as before.

Additionally, the extensions allowed Huawei to stockpile lots of critical components prior to the full ban. Because of these offset measures, Huawei's financials didn't really take any major hits in 2020. In fact, I seem to recall that one of the quarterly reports saw higher revenues than before.

But what happens going forward is interesting because the ban means Huawei's smart phone business has reach the end of the line.

Huawei has also had to sell its Honor subdivision to minimize the impact on the core company's survival.

* * *

On the semiconductor front, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is China's top chipmaker. According to SMIC itself, they are capable of mass producing chips using the 28nm and 14nm process. Their latest achievements even allow for the manufacturing of chips that uses what can be considered as a pseudo 7nm process. (For what it is worth, Intel has been having major issues to reliably produce 7nm chips. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, currently mass produce with a 5nm process, and is close to having 3nm capabilities.) Unfortunately, SMIC is also listed in the US ban.

But don't be mistaken into thinking that China has the capability and capacity to produces its own advanced semiconductor products -- it can't. SMIC is already China's top chip maker, but a closer look at its revenue split will tell you that the capability isn't actually there. According to Tom's Hardware article here:

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/ch...tion-uncertain

mature technologies (40/45 nm and thicker) accounted for 90.9% of its wafer revenue in Q2 2020. Meanwhile, 28 nm and 14 nm accounted for only 9.1% of the company’s wafer revenue in the second quarter with the former being considering more popular than the latter.

Effectively, the revenue breakdown reveals that up to Q2 2020, SMIC's most advanced semiconductor manufacturing process (at 14nm) only accounts for a miniscule amount of SMIC's total business. If SMIC was capable of consistently having good yield numbers with its 14nm process, they would have focused their business on that since typically, the more technologically advanced products are supposed to carry a higher return.

With no means to purchase semiconductor products from foreign countries, and no means to produce them on its own, the semiconductor ban means China has no means (haha) to obtain recent-ish semiconductor technology, so the implications are far-reaching.

I'm not arguing with you, I just want to see the data here, as I truly believe you're giving Trump more credit than he deserves in terms of these policies and their efficacy.

Details of the various bans are of course not something that Trump would be able to come up with himself -- he would be relying on any number of his subject area experts to help him with a draft that causes maximum damage. But the decision to take up this direction is almost certainly Trump's, and for that, I think he has to be given the credit for it.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

The Trump vs China narrative is a big issue throughout China and Asia as well (Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc). As we can see with Traum, he has successfully built this narrative that he's tough on them, and is the best candidate to "keep them in check". When in reality, everything he's done has been self-serving, only done to perpetuate that narrative. Believing Trump is "the solution for China" is the same as believing he "actually won the election by a lot"

Mike is right that all the sanctions with regards to 5G would have been done by any administration, and it's being done by most of the rest of the world too. Including every Trump-hating country in the world

So now we have groups of pro Trump people in Taiwan, HK, and probably underground in China. Little mini-MAGAs that do nothing but serve to give him strength. This is another reason why an impeachment is so important. I was surprised to see that MeWe.com, which is promoted as an alternative to Facebook but is really where the former MAGAs are going after the Parler shutdown, is becoming very popular in HK. All these pro-democracy people are supporting a guy who is very much anti-democracy. I get it in a "enemy of my enemy is my friend" but Trump is nobody's friend but his own.

Not to mention Falun Gong and their Epoch Times media has basically become a MAGA propaganda publisher... Trump has made fools of so many people, and has somehow garnered support from everyone from white supremacists to weird but peaceful religions

For someone who is currently living in Hong Kong, I really find it surprising that you can be thinking this way. It isn't "a narrative that I built" that Trump is tough on China. It is a common consensus among the anti-Communist China crowd that Trump has been quite effective in clamping down on China, and this consensus includes insights from some of Hong Kong / Taiwan's smartest critics and commentators.

If you think Biden would have enacted those 5G sactions like Trump has, think again. During his campaign, Biden tried to say that he would remove Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products if elected president. (His staff later walked back on the statement.) Biden also said he would work with western democracies to broadly pressure China into abiding by international rules and protocols. As I've pointed out before, that approach does not work (on China). The 5G blockages are also not something that any administration would have done as you so claim. Look back at what I have mentioned above -- I'd say the the other countries are only blocking Huawei and its 5G because they have seen Trump leading the charge, so joining the ban after the US has done it first becomes far less risky for themselves. When you look at the timeline of when the bans came into place, you will see that it started with the US on May 1, 2019. Britain and Frace, for example, followed a year later.

As the largest economy in the world as well as China's biggest trading partner, the US already posses more than enough strength and firepower to force China into cooperating. If the RoW wants to join in on the effort, it'll make the job faster and easier. If there is too much bickering (because each country's national interest will be different), then the US can go at it alone, and it'll be somewhat slower. There is no need to wait.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by twitchyzero

the current policy from trump admin IS good for the indo-pacific stability, htf is that a narrative? Which other Western head of state has stuck their neck out for the neighbours that keep getting bullied by CCP in the past 20 years as much as Trump has? haha sure as fuck isnt trudeau nor obama. Hell wouldnt you have a clue, you live there.

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

How?

SkinnyPupp,

Are you dense? or are you just being a troll now? Twitchyzero literally spelled out the how for you right there, and you are still asking him?

So lemme spell it out for you one more time -- Trump is sending war ships to sail through what should be international waters in the South China Seas so that China would at least hold back a little on bullying the ASEAN countries in the area, and that's a good thing for Indo-Pacific stability.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by Traum

SkinnyPupp,

Are you dense? or are you just being a troll now? Twitchyzero literally spelled out the how for you right there, and you are still asking him?

So lemme spell it out for you one more time -- Trump is sending war ships to sail through what should be international waters in the South China Seas so that China would at least hold back a little on bullying the ASEAN countries in the area, and that's a good thing for Indo-Pacific stability.

So his points are "shouting at China about the virus" and "leaving the WHO" and "5G probably would be ignored by Obama"

If those are supposed to be his arguments, you're accusing the wrong person about being dense.

I asked how to give him a chance to give real examples, not just some BS narratives that he thinks makes Trump look good. He failed, you failed... Trump sucks, just accept it. You guys literally proved the point for me that I was making earlier. It's all rhetoric. And a ship that will be there when Trump leaves.

[GGnoRE]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

Can you provide me any data in terms of the recent Trump policies and the adverse the measurable effect they've had to the manufacturing and tech sector in China (semiconductor tech, etc.)

Originally Posted by Traum

Unfortunately, coming up with measurable data that can show the adverse effect from the bans is difficult in a number of ways. First of all, although the initial executive order was signed in May 2019, extensions to the ban has occurred 3 times until April 2020 to allow more time for American businesses to make alternative arrangements. The extensions mean that throughout this period, Huawei was able to continue with its business in pretty much the same way as before.

Additionally, the extensions allowed Huawei to stockpile lots of critical components prior to the full ban. Because of these offset measures, Huawei's financials didn't really take any major hits in 2020. In fact, I seem to recall that one of the quarterly reports saw higher revenues than before.

But what happens going forward is interesting because the ban means Huawei's smart phone business has reach the end of the line.

Here is an article from Oct 2020: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/huaw...e-to-bite.html

• In the third quarter of 2020, Huawei shipped 51.7 million smartphones, down 23% year-on-year, according to a Canalys.
• Huawei lost its crown as the world’s biggest smartphone maker, after gaining the title in the second quarter of the year. Samsung overtook Huawei.

"... The U.S. has waged a campaign against Huawei as part of the broader trade war with China. Huawei is seen as one of China’s national champions and key to the country’s ambitions in next-generation technologies like 5G, the next-generation mobile networks that offer super-fast data speeds.

Washington has placed a number of sanctions on Huawei which are continuing to take their toll. Last year, Huawei was put on a U.S. blacklist known as the Entity List. This restricted American firms from doing business with the Chinese giant. It meant that Huawei was no longer allowed to use licensed Google Android software on its smartphones.

This is not a big deal in China where Google services are effectively blocked anyway. But in international markets, which are critical to Huawei’s growth plans, consumers are used to using Google apps. Huawei’s latest flagship smartphones do not have licensed Google Android and that’s hurting the company’s device sales.

Declines in international markets are continuing for Huawei, but the company also saw a 15% fall in shipments in China in the third quarter, according to another report by IDC published Thursday.

Further uncertainty around the future of Huawei’s smartphone business remains. In May, Washington amended a rule which aimed to cut Huawei off from critical chip supplies. Taiwanese firm TSMC, which manufactures Huawei’s smartphone chips, is no longer allowed to ship those components to the company. ..."