Canadian politics thread

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Alpine

Liberals are going to win another minority gov't again lol.

While this would be my preferred outcome, given how "well" things are going for Turd and the Libs, I am really not expecting yet another Liberals victory, even if it was a Liberals minority government. Instead, I think the most likely outcome is that the Cons take a minority win.

But here is where things get interesting. According to some political podcasts that I follow, our parliamentary legislation is structured in such a way that the incumbent PM doesn't necessarily have to concede his position as PM. As the sitting PM, as long as he can come up with enough parliamentary support to keep him there as PM, he can continue to be PM. At the practical level, what this means is, assuming the Libs and NDP have won enough seats to form government, they can announce -- after the election -- to form a formal or informal coalition Lib-NDP gov, and it would all be completely legitimate. A formal coalition gov would mean the formal inclusion of NDP MPs into the federal cabinet, with Jagmeet likely being invited to become the deputy PM.
An informal coalition gov would be something like the current supply and confidence agreement, with no NDP MPs being in the cabinet.

Worthy of note is -- coalition govs are very common in Europe. Detractors will claim they are hugely inefficient, but supporters will say it provides a wider representation of voices in Parliament.

As a matter of tradition though, coalition govs are extremely rare in Canadian history. We usually only go by a majority / minority gov model, and if a single party didn't win enough seats to form a minority gov, the party leader usually just concedes (on the election).

I am not an NDP fan by any stretch of imagination, but if push comes to shove and it is a choice between a PeePee gov vs a Lib-NDP coalition, I'd say we should break tradition and go with the coalition model, even if its sole purpose is to fxxk PeePee's PM dreams up lol~

[whitev70r]

^ that would raise the stakes of an Alberta separation. Although it may be possible and within the rules of parliament and what the Lieutenant Governor could do, etc. that would lead to a mild civil war.

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Anyone that continues to vote liberal deserves every financial hardship that comes with that vote.

i don't like any of the choices, should i recuse myself from voting?

[Hondaracer]

Imo that most recent vote down for proportional representation was a huge misstep and took our democracy back a decade

Of course the majority of people who voted on it were probably too dumb or too misinformed to understand what they were voting on, and Turd and Co seemingly went out of their way to make it as confusing as possible

[Traum]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

^ that would raise the stakes of an Alberta separation. Although it may be possible and within the rules of parliament and what the Lieutenant Governor, could do, etc. that would lead to a mild civil war.

You know, while I am not quite ready to openly admit or embrace is, a growing part of me increasingly doesn't give a damn about those fxxking crybabies in Alberta and Quebec. If they wanna fxxking leave Confederation -- STFU and just leave already. Let's see how well they'd survive on their own.

(And it's the same thing with relationships -- if the GF/wife wants to leave because of irreconcilable differences, just leave already. After a certain point of trying to make things work and it still doesn't, there is really no point.)

I think Quebec will head for a rapid downward spiral in almost every aspect of life if they separate. On the other hand, Alberta may continue to be OK on the economic front, but will become an even bigger right wing redneck state.

[GLOW]

i remember that debate in school, quebec wanting to leave but still maintain economic ties etc, which sounded like be on their "own" but powered by mommy/daddy

[Hondaracer]

The rest of Canada probably would have been better off if we had just let them go. Given we didn’t have to prop them up going forward

BC and Alberta could probably split off and be more prosperous than the rest of Canada combined, yet we all get shafted

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

The rest of Canada probably would have been better off if we had just let them go. Given we didn’t have to prop them up going forward

BC and Alberta could probably split off and be more prosperous than the rest of Canada combined, yet we all get shafted

Politically and policy-wise, BC and Alberta are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum, so a BC and Alberta leaving together to form a single state is going to be a very bad idea.

As Alberta is generally a contributor to the Canadian economy, losing them would hurt the rest of Canada financially and economically. But when they are such a PITA, I'd really rather take the financial blow than to put up with their antics and tantrums.

[Manic!]

Here is the reason why cons will never win.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poi...nder-1.6945362

As conservative premiers change the rules on pronoun use in schools, members of the federal Conservative grassroots want Pierre Poilievre to wade further into the debate around gender.

A submission advancing to a policy convention next month proposes discussion of a Conservative government prohibiting "life altering medicinal or surgical interventions" for those under 18 who are looking to transition.

The pitch is similar to ones found across the United States — including in Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a bill in May banning gender-affirming care for transgender youth. Many health professionals, parents and advocates of LGBTQ+ youth say that bill places them at greater risk for suicide and depression.

As federal Conservative leader, Poilievre has largely focused on the cost-of-living crisis gripping millions, high interest rates and a lack of affordable housing.

But parts of his base are hoping Poilievre will broaden his opposition agenda to include more of a focus on social issues.

Poilievre was asked by reporters Wednesday about his openness to outlawing gender-affirming care for children. "I haven't had a chance to study all the proposals at our convention," he said, "but we'll take a careful look at every proposal and decide whether or not it lines up with our platform."

Reacting to New Brunswick's decision to no longer make it mandatory for teachers to use a child's preferred pronouns without parental consent, Poilievre has said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should "butt out" of decisions by provinces and parents.

On Tuesday, Saskatchewan adopted a similar policy. The province's advocate for children called the policy's potential to undermine the rights of children concerning.

Manitoba Progressive Conservative Leader Heather Stefanson also promised that if re-elected, her government would give more "parental rights" to families when it comes to the curriculum and presentations by outside groups.

The term "parental rights" is increasingly used to refer to the concerns some families and individuals have about what schools teach children about sexual orientation and gender expression, with a particular focus on policies around transgender and nonbinary students.

It is an issue that has picked up steam within the federal Conservative grassroots since the last gathering, held virtually, under former leader Erin O'Toole.

In the contest to replace him, which Poilievre won by a landslide last September, former leadership candidate and rural Ontario Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis vowed to introduce a bill protecting "parental rights."
Free speech, housing

[mikemhg]

The problem with Quebec succeeding is literally a quarter of our military is from that damn province.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...c-c001-eng.htm

It's kind of hilarious that a massive portion of our government and military are from a province that doesn't even want to be a part of the country

[JD¹³]

Originally Posted by Traum

Politically and policy-wise, BC and Alberta are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum, so a BC and Alberta leaving together to form a single state is going to be a very bad idea.

As Alberta is generally a contributor to the Canadian economy, losing them would hurt the rest of Canada financially and economically. But when they are such a PITA, I'd really rather take the financial blow than to put up with their antics and tantrums.

I think you seriously underestimate the consequences of AB and then potentially SK and MB separating. They are the boiler room of the Canadian economy, unlike QC which leaches off the rest of the country and gets the vast majority of its equalization transfers from AB. That's why they wanted to leave but retain economic ties (which is bullshit). The people of Quebec have been sold the biggest lies by their politicians convincing them that its possible and a good idea. If AB left QC would go broke immediately, maritime provinces would be in big trouble, and the entire country would destabilize. Without Alberta powering the Fed holy shit would it get ugly fast, its not something that should be taken lightly. But this is the conversation we're now having as Canadians as a result of politics over the last eight years. We should all be zooming out and looking at that for what it is.

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by Manic!

Here is the reason why cons will never win.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poi...nder-1.6945362

I think you're overestimating the amount of people that care about minors having access to "life altering medicinal or surgical interventions" or being called "they/them" in grade 3.

Of all the shit I care about in the next election this ain't it

[Hondaracer]

A liberal overly concerned with issues that affect a tiny fraction of the population? That’s weird, that never happens!

I’ll ask the same question I asked a while back, now that life in general is substantially worse than the first time I asked.

What is better in Canada now than it was 8 years ago?

[Traum]

While Alberta is certainly punching quite a bit above its weight class in terms of economic contribution to the country, I'd still say you are over-emphasizing their economic importance in the bigger Canadian picture.

Alberta accounts for ~12% of the Canadian population while contributing ~15% of Canada's GDP.

BC is roughly on par, accounting for ~14% of the population as well as GDP contribution.

Ontario is in a similar boat -- ~38% for both population and GDP.

Quebec consistently underperforms -- it has ~23% of Canada's population while only accounting for ~20% of the GDP. And because of its (large) population size, they account for over 60% of the equalization payments from the federal gov.

Unsurprisingly, when I had "discussions" with Quebecois over social media about how QC sucks up the bulk of the equalization transfers and is basically the biggest economic leech of the country, they disagreed LOL~ A good number of "reasons" would come up, from how Quebec already have high taxes, to some Quebec healthcare arrangement that I am not familiar with,
Quebec Abatement among others, but I fail understand how those cited reasons would make them less of a leech to the rest of Canada.

As an aside, I wouldn't really put too much weight into the 2 charts that you've included in your post. One is a historic chart dating all the way back to 1961, so much of the data points there are no longer relevant. The other is a single year chart, so it is prone to the ebbs and flows of the economic situation in any given year.

Originally Posted by JD¹³

I think you seriously underestimate the consequences of AB and then potentially SK and MB separating. They are the boiler room of the Canadian economy, unlike QC which leaches off the rest of the country and gets the vast majority of its equalization transfers from AB. That's why they wanted to leave but retain economic ties (which is bullshit). The people of Quebec have been sold the biggest lies by their politicians convincing them that its possible and a good idea. If AB left QC would go broke immediately, maritime provinces would be in big trouble, and the entire country would destabilize. Without Alberta powering the Fed holy shit would it get ugly fast, its not something that should be taken lightly. But this is the conversation we're now having as Canadians as a result of politics over the last eight years. We should all be zooming out and looking at that for what it is.

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

I think you're overestimating the amount of people that care about minors having access to "life altering medicinal or surgical interventions" or being called "they/them" in grade 3.

Of all the shit I care about in the next election this ain't it

It's a slippery slope. The people behind this are the same people who want to ban abortion, wanted to keep the ban on marijuana, stop gay marriage, and set up barbaric cultural practices hotline.

The cons have zero pro-choice MPs. Every time they bring up these moral issues they lose votes.

[underscore]

Some Albertans and Quebecois have been rambling about wanting to separate for a lot longer than the past 8 years lol.

[Gumby]

Originally Posted by Traum

As an aside, I wouldn't really put too much weight into the 2 charts that you've included in your post. One is a historic chart dating all the way back to 1961, so much of the data points there are no longer relevant. The other is a single year chart, so it is prone to the ebbs and flows of the economic situation in any given year.

Actually it's from 2007-2018, so 10 fiscal years or so...

[JD¹³]

Originally Posted by Traum

While Alberta is certainly punching quite a bit above its weight class in terms of economic contribution to the country, I'd still say you are over-emphasizing their economic importance in the bigger Canadian picture.

Alberta accounts for ~12% of the Canadian population while contributing ~15% of Canada's GDP.

Each provinces population to GDP contribution is a statistic that doesn't tell the whole story in this discussion, it's pretty irrelevant. The charts in my previous post show how much, with everything considered, Alberta adds to the Canadian fiscal balance. Conversely they show how much the other provinces need Alberta's contribution because if BC and Ontario are the only net positive contributors to the overall economy they absolutely will not keep up with the needs of the others. The 61-17 chart shows how much Alberta has powered the growth of all of Canada by helping other provinces along the way to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars donated to their economies. Alberta's economic importance goes far beyond those numbers as it supplies a substantial amount of the countries market crude, refined gas, and natural gas. If Alberta separates and shuts off all those pipelines or even demands market rates for their energy everyone's energy costs will skyrocket. When natural gas and prices at the pump shoot up so does everything else as we've already seen. I don't even want to think about the inflation that would happen with the increase in energy costs, dump of the value of the Canadian dollar, and all the trickle down effects. Not to mention given Canada's current state simply losing 15% of the economy over night.

Originally Posted by Traum

As an aside, I wouldn't really put too much weight into the 2 charts that you've included in your post. One is a historic chart dating all the way back to 1961, so much of the data points there are no longer relevant. The other is a single year chart, so it is prone to the ebbs and flows of the economic situation in any given year.

As already stated that's a ten year chart, and you can extrapolate between the two to see that BC is a relatively new positive contributor while Ontario's overall contribution has shrunk in recent decades compared to the past. These charts show both historical precedent and relatively recent trends in economic power of each province. The data points are absolutely relevant to current and future macro-economics. Losing Alberta would be catastrophic to Canada.

[Traum]

A good question to ask is -- while Alberta has historically been contributing more to Canada than it gets back, how long can this phenomenon continue?

Alberta is able to generate the wealth it does in a large part due to its oil and gas industry. As a practical person, I am not naive enough to think that our world would be able to ditch oil & gas any time soon. However, the winds are definitely shifting. With the recent pause that Alberta has put on its renewable energy sector, it is set to lose anywhere between 12 - 18 months' worth of investments in that sector, possibly longer, and possibly losing its early adopter advantage. And yet Danielle Smith is still dead set on putting all of Alberta's chips on the good ol' oil & gas industry.

As an aside, if Canada really loses Alberta, then the obvious solution is to kick Quebec out as well, and then the money issue will all balance out.

But really, it never fails to amaze me that the federal government is so willing to bend over backwards to appease Quebec when it is basically a money pit -- to both the federal gov as well as the rest of the country. If western provinces receives the same level of treatment as Quebec does from Ottawa, we'd be in a far better position than we are now.

[Manic!]

Have you guys heard of the Million People march? Septemper 21st Jews, Muslims and Christians are going to march in Ottawa to protect the children.

Here is PP talking about it with a Muslim reporter.

https://www.tiktok.com/@awazent/vide...39478698495238



Who knows how many will show up.

Previous protest in Ontario

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/...Fnews%2F374194

[Badhobz]

Wonder if they’ll get into a religious fight along the way. Trololololol

[westopher]

"I don't care what god you believe in as long as your god justifies bigotry!"
Nice to finally agree on something even if it is anger towards the public education system teaching tolerance.
Waiting patiently for the "it's not tolerance it's grooming" retort.

[Hondaracer]

80k in goods stolen in 3 days, almost 60% of the recommended charges thrown out:

https://globalnews.ca/news/9925261/v...o-charges/amp/

Business owners interviewed saying it’s becoming the societal norm to just walk into their stores and walk out with goods.

Canadurrrrr

[westopher]

It's been like that as long as anyone can remember. My house was robbed twice when I was 8 and 10 in edmonton.
Both times the people were caught (with my snes and PS1 respectively) and neither time were they charged because there wasn't enough evidence to make it stick.
Doesn't make it less stupid, but it isn't new.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Imo that most recent vote down for proportional representation was a huge misstep and took our democracy back a decade

Of course the majority of people who voted on it were probably too dumb or too misinformed to understand what they were voting on, and Turd and Co seemingly went out of their way to make it as confusing as possible

Um, we never had a referendum for prop rep on the federal level.

I think you're thinking of the provincial referendum in 2018. Nothing to do with Trudeau and the federal liberals.