coronavirus discussion

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by Hehe

Second that... got nothing else to say.

Spanish flu, the previous major pandemic had JUST 2-3% of mortality rate. And it went on to kill 50million people (roughly under 3% of total population back then).

Yeah... I'm sure it's no big deal.

That's the thing about doctors and other professionals. They are just people with jobs like anyone else, but they think their OPINIONS mean more than facts. I hated posting that doctor's interview, but I had to post one to counter the OPINION he posted first. (although I agreed that panic and hoarding are the last thing we want to do)

Yes the rate is MUCH higher in elderly and people with pre-existing conditions. Does that mean we should be OK with a pandemic wiping out that entire segment of the population? Overcrowding hospitals to the point where people with other urgent needs can't be cared for? Like wtf are we even talking about?

Drives me crazy.

Edit: If this guy's attitude is what is common amongst his field, I really fear for Canada and USA. Here in Hong Kong, our medical professionals had the exact opposite reaction. They have been through this with SARS already, and recognized that their government wasn't going to do enough to prevent a huge outbreak.

So they put their asses on the line, formed a union OVERNIGHT, and went on strike to force the government into action. As a result, the borders were (mostly) closed to China, and Hong Kong went from being the #2 country outside China to currently #16. This is despite being right on the doorstep of the disease, with borders open to it for a week.

And while HK people overreacted a bit with the hoarding of rice and toilet paper (?), in general they reacted to this strongly, with 95% of the population wearing masks, avoiding going to crowds. This kept the number of community transmissions relatively low. Often if you walk into a bank or a restaurant without a mask, they'll give you one (leading to some awkward moments with foreigners who often deny wearing masks)

Italy, EU, and it looks like Canada is not learning from this. I understand that if you ignore what's going on, which is what a lot of people do. But to resist reality is just dangerous.

I'll say one more time - don't panic, prepare. Wash hands MORE than regularly, use hand sanitizer, don't touch your face. Maybe stock up on meds for a couple months. Don't freak out, but don't have an ignorant attitude.

[twdm]

Originally Posted by Hehe

Second that... got nothing else to say.

Spanish flu, the previous major pandemic had JUST 2-3% of mortality rate. And it went on to kill 50million people (roughly under 3% of total population back then).

Yeah... I'm sure it's no big deal.

Yea childbirth 300 years ago probably had 10% maternal mortality rates. Shall we go back to the stone age as well?

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by twdm

Yea childbirth 300 years ago probably had 10% maternal mortality rates. Shall we go back to the stone age as well?

You keep proving your point wrong which I’m not sure if it’s sarcasm or what.

Spanish flu happened roughly 100years ago. With the medical tech back then, it was 2-3% and killed 50m. With today’s tech, covid is higher than what happened 100yrs ago. And that’s “extremely low”?

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by Hehe

You keep proving your point wrong which I’m not sure if it’s sarcasm or what.

Spanish flu happened roughly 100years ago. With the medical tech back then, it was 2-3% and killed 50m. With today’s tech, covid is higher than what happened 100yrs ago. And that’s “extremely low”?

The death rate will drop as time goes on because of better reporting and better detection. At the start people got it and then got over it with out even knowing what it was.

[twdm]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

Edit: If this guy's attitude is what is common amongst his field, I really fear for Canada and USA. Here in Hong Kong, our medical professionals had the exact opposite reaction. They have been through this with SARS already, and recognized that their government wasn't going to do enough to prevent a huge outbreak.

So they put their asses on the line, formed a union OVERNIGHT, and went on strike to force the government into action. As a result, the borders were (mostly) closed to China, and Hong Kong went from being the #2 country outside China to currently #16. This is despite being right on the doorstep of the disease, with borders open to it for a week.

I think you're getting too much of your news from apple daily. Have you noticed Hong Kong and Asia always gets hit with these respiratory conditions? 16 years after SARS and the idiots here still don't wash their hands with soap and water. They rather line up for hours looking for surgical masks which don't effectively prevent community spread.

The fact that Hong Kong has decreasing number of cases is more due to the fact no one wants to come here anymore. The infection rate is not that much better than Italy (I'm talking about absolute difference of 0.007% which is so small it's not even relevant).

So let me put it in laymen terms for you. Statistically speaking you have a 1 in 70,000 chance of getting infected (in Hong Kong). Assuming a mortality rate of 4% (in HK it is 1.8%), you have a 1 in 1.75million chance of dying from COVID-19 (realistically lower given your age).

So why do people give the argument that the flu is more deadly? Because it is backed up by facts. Did you get your flu shot this year? Probably not.

Don't give me the doomsday scenario where OMG imagine if 40% of the population was infected. Diseases don't work like that. When mortality increases, people and countries modify their behaviors to decrease infection rates (like men will actually start washing their hands properly in Asia). So eventually absolute mortality rates reach an equilibrium rate. Meaning unless this virus mutates to become more infectious, we will NEVER see 4% of the population die from this virus.

Successful viruses survive because they cause minimal symptoms in most of their hosts in order for it to transmit. Which is why you didn't see SARS or MERS create a severe global epidemic due to its severity (which led to very stringent measures on containment).

So generally the more infectious a virus is, the less lethal it is.

[twdm]

Originally Posted by Hehe

You keep proving your point wrong which I’m not sure if it’s sarcasm or what.

Spanish flu happened roughly 100years ago. With the medical tech back then, it was 2-3% and killed 50m. With today’s tech, covid is higher than what happened 100yrs ago. And that’s “extremely low”?

You said it's 2-3% mortality rate but it killed 3% of the world population meaning it infected everyone in the world.

If you have a disease that has a 3% mortality rate but only infects 1% of the world, then your mortality is 0.03%.

Absolute versus relative statistics is a key term that most laymen do not understand but they do like throw around big numbers. And as what the above poster said, there are potentially large numbers of undiagnosed mildly symptomatic patients who if included would drastically reduce the mortality rate.

eg. True relative mortality rate = (confirmed + undiagnosed true deaths)/(confirmed + undiagnosed true cases)

If I told you heart attacks have a 14% mortality rate, would you start eating better and go to the gym? What is high? What is low? More people die from heart disease and cancer than any other infectious disease. This is fact. Look at influenza and pneumonia (COVID-19 would be in this bracket)

[UnknownJinX]

Again, political stuff aside, I think SkinnyPup's advice is still valid: avoid large gatherings, wash your hands often, avoid travelling abroad, etc. That's the best we can do as individuals.

Yeah it can pan out to be not as bad as someone make it but I don't see why you shouldn't try to play it safe.

I mean, even if it just kills the weak and the old, we all probably have family members that fall into that bracket. As younger people, we may not get hit as hard, but would you want to see your loved ones suffer? Probably not.

[twdm]

Originally Posted by UnknownJinX

Again, political stuff aside, I think SkinnyPup's advice is still valid: avoid large gatherings, wash your hands often, avoid travelling abroad, etc. That's the best we can do as individuals.

I think the most important thing is the wash your hands frequently with soap and water and sanitizer (if soap and water is not available), touching your face, eyes, stay home when sick etc.

Telling people to avoid travel and large gatherings, wear masks when outside only spreads fear and distracts from the actual cause of transmission which is poor hygiene and working/going out when sick.

[extracrunchie]

Originally Posted by twdm

I think the most important thing is the wash your hands frequently with soap and water and sanitizer (if soap and water is not available), touching your face, eyes, stay home when sick etc.

Telling people to avoid travel and large gatherings, wear masks when outside only spreads fear and distracts from the actual cause of transmission which is poor hygiene and working/going out when sick.

In large gatherings if someone near you cough or sneeze could possibly transmit, it has nothing to do with personal hygiene in that case.

[SkinnyPupp]

Also quite a few people, especially younger, present no symptoms at all. So they're going around potentially spreading it without knowing it. That's why it's prudent to take extra precautions, rather than treating this like a normal cold or flu.

Nobody is saying to freak out and hoard goods. But also you can't expect to just ignore this and go through the motions assuming it doesn't matter since it rarely kills younger healthy people.

[trd2343]

Originally Posted by Hehe

If you look at Italian data alone, for anywhere without a HIGHLY (cap for emphasis) advanced medical infrastructure, the mortality rate is around 20%. In all other countries, where you can count the cases with your fingers, it's still ok and death rate is still low because their current infrastructure can handle it. Korea, Italy, Iran... etc all had major outbreak because their medical system could no longer handle. Take all that into consideration and get back to me to tell me that the mortality is low.

I'm not going to be too pessimistic. I do think people are being unreasonable with their behaviors in this situation. But the fact is, this virus might very well be the worst in our lifetime. However, if we, as a society, take the necessary procedures, like avoid mass crowd gathering, constant sanitizing our hands and avoid unnecessary trips abroad or even just to the airport, we can reduce the potential of further major outbreak by a magnitude.

If China's data is to be believed... (which I don't think... but let's just do for the sake of argument), harsh interventions are working for them (province-wide lockdown). And if we can do a more civilized, but similar effectiveness approach, we could reduce the spread by many folds and even eradicate in countries like ours where we don't have many cases to begin with.

What if fear does affect how deadly this virus has become? Healthy individuals who are able to self-recover, because of fear (due to SARS, MERS, etc.), checks in with the health care system (whether through hotline, GP, emergency).

In turn, a portion of those who are at risk gets delayed or no treatment at all, dies, death tolls increases, people see the news, and panic even more, goes to the health care system even with a single cough. Then it becomes a cycle.

I am by no means equating this virus with the common flu.

Also, does R0 portray how deadly/harmful the virus is, or how infectious it is? I believe they are two different things?

[spoon.ek9]

Originally Posted by twdm

You said it's 2-3% mortality rate but it killed 3% of the world population meaning it infected everyone in the world.

If you have a disease that has a 3% mortality rate but only infects 1% of the world, then your mortality is 0.03%.

1918 world population: 1,800,000,000
1918 Spanish flu deaths: 50,000,000 (this was a low estimate btw)

do the math and it's 2.78% of the world's population.

[whitev70r]

^ do you mean everyone on planet Earth was infected? I find that had to believe. That's why those numbers don't quite add up.

Must define - mortality rate is of those infected.

twdm has a point, it is % or probability of being infected x % mortality rate (of your age bracket)

[SkinnyPupp]

Spanish Flu infected 500 million people, or 27% of the world's population, and killed as many as 10% - 20% of them. That would be 3-5% of the world's population. Source for 50-100 million deaths Source for 40-50 million deaths.

The first wave killed a lot of younger adults, but the second wave, much deadlier, killed off older and those with pre-existing conditions.

Again: FORGET about the mortality rate of "your age bracket". That is the selfish kind of thinking that lets the epidemic spread and kill everyone who IS at risk. The goal should be: the community, whatever it is be it a town, city, country, or apartment complex, should do everything it can so NOBODY gets sick.

So if someone does get sick, they should not "not worry about it since it's not gonna kill ME", they should go into strict quarantine so they don't spread it to 3 other people, who will each spread it to 3 others, and so on until it overfills hospitals while killing old people, and preventing everyone else from being cared for.

I don't know why that's so unreasonable for some people to accept .

[whitev70r]

^ If these numbers are correct, then it cannot be 50 million people died from Spanish flu, right? spoon.ek9, hehe, and anyone else who regurgitated those numbers without thinking ... say sorry to twdm.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

^ If these numbers are correct, then it cannot be 50 million people died from Spanish flu, right? spoon.ek9, hehe, and anyone else who regurgitated those numbers without thinking ... say sorry to twdm.

I cleared up my post with sources. 40-100 million died from it.

Nobody owes an apology to twdm, he's just here spreading the kind of selfish dangerous thinking that would only serve to make this thing as bad as it can possibly be.

[welfare]

Originally Posted by trd2343

What if fear does affect how deadly this virus has become? Healthy individuals who are able to self-recover, because of fear (due to SARS, MERS, etc.), checks in with the health care system (whether through hotline, GP, emergency).

In turn, a portion of those who are at risk gets delayed or no treatment at all, dies, death tolls increases, people see the news, and panic even more, goes to the health care system even with a single cough. Then it becomes a cycle.

I am by no means equating this virus with the common flu.

Also, does R0 portray how deadly/harmful the virus is, or how infectious it is? I believe they are two different things?

I think aside from the economic fallout, my next concern would be healthcare capability.
Once the workers (inevitably) start getting sick, it will create a shortage of staff which will compound the problem of a high influx of patients.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Me and my wife were just discussing how 2020 have a pretty bad start. Plane got shot down by Iran, brexit, this virus and among a few negative things happening around the world. Maybe is mother nature or gods are fees up with us human if people believe it
But is true though since end of 2019 beginning of 2020 is been one bad news after another.

[spoon.ek9]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

^ do you mean everyone on planet Earth was infected? I find that had to believe. That's why those numbers don't quite add up.

Must define - mortality rate is of those infected.

twdm has a point, it is % or probability of being infected x % mortality rate (of your age bracket)

No, that is not what I said at all. That's simply the percentage of the world that died due to the disease. I didn't make any statement about the mortality rate. The two are separate things.

[6793026]

Originally Posted by Hehe

What China... actually, let's rephrase that... CCP is doing on coronavirus is absolutely disgusting.

First, they delayed the acknowledgment of the coronavirus until basically they could no longer cover it up because they needed some extreme measures for containment and it's impossible to hide if those measures were being applied (province-wide lockdown)

Then, they kept manipulating data to make it seems that the spread is not as bad as it actually is. The last report I read about China's adjustment on their counts was 6th time already. What kind of fucked-up situation require them to revise the tallying method 6 times?! It either showed continuos manipulation or total incompetence.

Third, China gets upset (actual phrase was "regret") because several countries started issuing travel/import bans of Chinese nationals/goods.

And WHO, a total puppet of China (anyone in doubt, google where Tedros, current WHO chair, is from and how much that country is receiving from China) kept insisting that this whole thing is not that bad and under control... and that we should appreciate what China is doing. WTF!

I always thought CCP was corrupt AF. After this whole coronavirus thing simply asserted my assumption that CCP cannot be trusted... no matter what benefit they promise you. Because for any benefit they are willing to give, they'd simply try to get something greater back from you. My Chinese friend who's quite pro-ccp always told me the financial benefit CCP brought to China. And I tell him... look at Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, they all are democratic and are doing better than China (on a per capita basis). China was going to be better regardless. In fact, CCP might be limiting on what a great China can become because all the corruption and suppression going on in the country.

You know what, USA is doing exactly what China is doing.

USA is dodging jabs left right and center right now. USA right now can't cover it up. They aren't to link & distinguish where this covid19 is coming from; or the chain on how the individuals are linked or how it got to Seattle & NY.

USA gets mad and tells people to not worry, just buy enough for a week; bam... people start to stock pile.

Don't get me started on the WHO versus USA. USA just doens't do anything WHO is suggesting....

All in all, CCP and USA are both being little kids right now... and now it's hitting USA in the ass cause it's goign thru the same shit.


Dang.. you all with your spanish flu and % of mortality rate. I personally think 4% death rate when you get a particular virus / disease is actually pretty low. If i get COVID-19 tomorrow, and there is a chance of 10% death.. I'm really not that scared. Now, if you're talking about a solid chance of 50% change of dying... that's another level of WTF.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by 6793026

You know what, USA is doing exactly what China is doing.

USA is dodging jabs left right and center right now. USA right now can't cover it up. They aren't to link & distinguish where this covid19 is coming from; or the chain on how the individuals are linked or how it got to Seattle & NY.

USA gets mad and tells people to not worry, just buy enough for a week; bam... people start to stock pile.

Don't get me started on the WHO versus USA. USA just doens't do anything WHO is suggesting....

All in all, CCP and USA are both being little kids right now... and now it's hitting USA in the ass cause it's goign thru the same shit.


Dang.. you all with your spanish flu and % of mortality rate. I personally think 4% death rate when you get a particular virus / disease is actually pretty low. If i get COVID-19 tomorrow, and there is a chance of 10% death.. I'm really not that scared. Now, if you're talking about a solid chance of 50% change of dying... that's another level of WTF.

One country is led by a cartoon villain, the other led by a cartoon clown

At least one can get rid of the guy... if they want?

[StylinRed]

The elderly and ppl with preexisting conditions have a far higher chance of dying due to covid (Double digit %), we all have ppl in our family who fall into that category, why the fuck would I not take any precautions? Even the basics that doctors are recommending? (frequent hand washing, social distancing, being prepared) if I don't do the basics, it increases their chances of contracting covid... twdm proving once again he's an unreasonable, selfish, idiot

[trd2343]

Originally Posted by StylinRed

The elderly and ppl with preexisting conditions have a far higher chance of dying due to covid (Double digit %), we all have ppl in our family who fall into that category, why the fuck would I not take any precautions? Even the basics that doctors are recommending? (frequent hand washing, social distancing, being prepared) if I don't do the basics, it increases their chances of contracting covid... twdm proving once again he's an unreasonable, selfish, idiot

I don’t think he ever said anything about not taking any precautions, or not doing the basics that the doctors are recommending....

I mean he’s a healthcare professional... really, what does he gain from telling people to be careless?

You may call him arrogant if you don’t agree with his points, but selfish, idiot? That’s just uncalled unnecessary, to anyone.

[RRxtar]

What's interesting is how it appears our society is completely incapable of doing anything when these pandemics get going, regardless of how advanced we think we are. Instead of doing everything we can, we are all arguing about whether losing 20% of our grandparents is worth washing our hands or not. What happens when the next crazy person from the slums of China or south east Asia eat a live bat while being balls deep in a monkey carcass standing under a 5G tower and a real plague spawns?

[6793026]

Originally Posted by StylinRed

why the fuck would I not take any precautions? Even the basics that doctors are recommending? (frequent hand washing, social distancing, being prepared)

Not saying we shouldn't take precautions. Chances of getting STD is WAYYY higher and everyone is still having unprotected sex. Not comparing, just saying.

Don't give a single fuck no more. Proper hygenie yes, wear masks, no. Cough in my sleeve yes, skipping out on canucks game / seven's game, no. Still going to drive my dad to chemo sessions, even though asian parents are taboo regarding hospitals being unsafe due to covid19.

Unless it gets to 30-50% chance of death mortality rate, OR suddenly Vancouver somehow gets 100s of cases consecutivesly for weeks.

I ain't even going to stockpile or give a single fuck. Still planning my vacation in June + heading down to Seattle for a quick trip tomorrow.