I think this is a pretty fair analysis on calculating actual cases by using number of deaths.

I think that the numbers from China is manipulated goes without saying.

However, this new focus on mobile cancellation might bring an insight.

For those who don't know about the cellphone in China, it's something that EVERYONE has because it's linked to your name and pretty much everything would ask you for verification via SMS. (use free wifi? SMS verification, getting a promo at a store? register your number via SMS verification, having an appt somewhere? SMS verification) Thus, I find it very unusual to have a decline of over 11M (between 3 major carriers) accounts over this period of time.

If anyone has data to 2019, that'd be interesting to see if this is a seasonal phenomenon. But if not, we might have a glimpse into the potential real data with minimum manipulation since the Chinese official hasn't touched it yet.

I would add that since the hospitals are overwhelmed(especially in Wuhan), some deaths could be from other illnesses that could be treated normally, but not so under the crushed healthcare system.

Those are not directly caused by COVID-19, but would still be related.

I don't believe a single thing that comes out of China. I've personally dealt with suppliers in China in different regions for business and they are unethical as fuck. It may not be directly related to Covid but it sure tells you what kind of people they are.

I almost pissed myself in my car yesterday morning before work since I found out that the first gas station in surrey didn't allow customers into the store and the second gas station 1 minute away closed their washrooms. Now with dine in restaurants going to close soon..

Any dine in restaurant that hasn't closed yet doesn't deserve any support when this is all over. So irresponsible.

For our gas station, we removed a window and I built a pass-thru window. The store doors are locked and we stopped selling lotto. Some people are pissed because we stopped selling lotto. Yesterday I was talking to a customer about California, he mentions he was there last week. :rukidding: Told him to go home and quarantine. I hope people start taking this more seriously.

I always thought cell phone plans in Asia are a lot cheaper than what we have in Canada, so why would they cancel their account and lose their phone number? Most would just downgrade their service if they don't need to use it that much.

^ most people in Asia don't use calling via phone instead use whatapp or other data apps to make calls etc. So number is pretty much irrelevant.

Finally, a doctor at RCH is voicing his concern.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sqt...cnWajG7h1/view

Itll never happen but im wishing for a plot twist like Elderly will be given priority at the hospitals over young people. Maybe that will deter people from going outside. Its pretty sad that the older generation will have to suffer the consequenses for the younger generations inability to listen

Someone needs to tell the old people to stay at home. A lot of them are still going out.

Older people are out and about to it’s not just young people. Costco at 2pm tons of older people. Lots of older people coming into the shop aswell

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sKT...w?usp=drivesdk

She spoke in English with Chinese subtitles. Sharing insights about what's happening in Surrey's hospital.

Fuck I feel like people won't be staying home unless it is enforced. Instead of giving out VI's, VPD should be citing up for people out and about in groups.

I really don't want to see Canada become the next Italy.

#StayTheFuckHome

It will help when it starts raining for a week

I would l like to stay home from work but dealerships are considered an essential service.

Was at Rocky Point park today coz Rocky ice cream is closing and they have a lot of inventory and they did online sale. Anyways went there it was super busy so tell them I will be back in an hour. Walk around the park. Lots of people there. Feels weird to see so many people in the park......

Came back to get my order waited a while and I am pretty sure I was at least 2m away from this mom and her daughter also waiting. She turn around and told me to stay farther from her..... so werid coz there were also a group of teenagers that's closer to her than me yet she said nothing to them (racist much?). Anyways I brush it off didn't want to ruin my mood.

Went home and notice a lot more people wearing mask at the supermarket.

I feel there shouldn't be this many people going parks at this point and people aren't really practicing social distancing......

My cousin is a nurse at Burnaby hospital, he said there's people in their 20's and 30's on ventilators. He also backed the claim from the nurse on FB that the media is under reporting because there's no way they can keep up with the patient intake.

He moved his grandparents with his sister because he's certain he will get the covid and doesn't want to risk their lives.

Says who?

Not sure how this apply. There's no such thing as data only sim in China as they rely heavily on a cellphone number as a way to ID a person.

A person could have multiple numbers, but a sudden decrease in masses is definitely not common in China where a cell number is basically your ID number.

And most of their plans are basically prepaid. Meaning that you deposit x amount of money and they deduct depending on service. For example (not actual figures, but the system is like this)... say 30RMB/mth for 3GB of data, and call is billed by seconds at 0.1RMB/sec. One'd usually load $300RMB in their account and only pay attention to it again when they are low in fund.

So, I find it very unusual to hear a sudden decrease in numbers.

Cruised the strip in White Rock and checked out crescent beach today. Every patio that was open had people on them. :facepalm:

We finally have a study directly on this specific virus and how long it can survive on surfaces.

The results: detectable in aerosols for up to 3 hrs, up to 24 hrs on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic/stainless steel.

This really highlights the importance of washing your hands and cleaning surfaces that are commonly used in households. Another study found that cleaning surfaces with proper disinfectants effectively decontaminated the virus.

12 pages of Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2

TLDR: Bleach, Hydrogen Peroxide, Alcohol, Ammonium... basically every household cleaner works against this virus.

Of course not all 8 million are each a subscriber who disappeared. There are more mobile subs in China than there are people. CM alone has over 900M subs LUL

But this isn't nothing. All I'm saying. We need to pay attention to this.

Convincing Boomer Parents to Take the Coronavirus Seriously (from New Yorker, well ... look where the state of NY is at now)

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cu...irus-seriously

Last Wednesday night, not long after President Trump’s Oval Office address, I called my mother to check in about the, you know, unprecedented global health crisis that’s happening. She told me that she and my father were in a cab on the way home from a fun dinner at the Polo Bar, in midtown Manhattan, with another couple who were old friends.

“You went to a restaurant?!” I shrieked. This was several days after she had told me, through sniffles, that she was recovering from a cold but didn’t see any reason that she shouldn’t go to the school where she works. Also, she was still hoping to make a trip to Florida at the end of the month. My dad, a lawyer, was planning to go into the office on Thursday, but thought that he might work from home on Friday, if he could figure out how to link up his personal computer. That night, moments after getting into bed, I sprang up and wrote them an anxious e-mail. “I feel like the two of you are not taking serious enough precautions right now,” I told them. “The time is DONE for going out to restaurants, showing up at the office every day, etc. Just stay inside and watch TV!” When I followed up with texts, my mother wrote back sarcastically, “Thanks mom.”

This role reversal was . . . novel. I still think of my parents as the grownups, the ones who lecture me about saving for retirement and intervene in squabbles with my little sister. It took a pandemic to thrust me into the role of the responsible adult and them into the role of the heedless children. I’m thirty-eight, and my mother and father are sixty-eight and seventy-four, respectively. Neither is retired, and both are in good shape. But people sixty-five and older—more than half of the baby-boomer population—are more susceptible to covid-19 and have a higher mortality rate, and my parents’ blithe behavior was as unsettling as the frantic warnings coming from hospitals in Italy.