RUSSIA - UKRAINE - war or posturing? Definitely war

[iwantaskyline]

Originally Posted by dachinesedude

What if China and North Korean sides with Russia?

China’s largest trade partner is America. Unless that changes they’re never going to war with America.

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by dachinesedude

What if China and North Korean sides with Russia?

Cheap housing in BC.

The sanctions would kill China's economy. They need to keep all those factories running.




https://cabinradio.ca/86775/news/pla...n-yellowknife/

Plane carrying Russians is grounded in Yellowknife

A private aircraft transporting Russian nationals has been grounded in Yellowknife, the NWT’s infrastructure minister said on Wednesday.
A file photo of Yellowknife Airport. Sarah Pruys/Cabin Radio

Speaking in the NWT legislature, Diane Archie said the aircraft had been grounded by the federal government and was being investigated over a potential violation of Canada’s recent order that no Russian aircraft enter its airspace.

Archie said she received a call on Tuesday night to inform her a “civilian plane with Russian nationals had landed in Yellowknife” with passengers bound for Resolute, Nunavut as part of “a planned Arctic overland expedition” in a large ATV.

I wonder what they are going to do now?

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by dachinesedude

What if China and North Korean sides with Russia?

China is probably going to take a look at how harshly the sanctions affected Russia, and nope the fuck out of any ideas of actual invasion anywhere

Now will they decide to rely less on the world economy because of it? Russia gives them somewhat of a chance to. They can hardly afford to in order to keep things going the way they are, but it's possible.

They're at a crossroads now... Either take the opportunity to have closer than ever ties to the west, who will be more inviting than ever right now, or shut out even further away.

I think it's hard to predict, because it all comes down to what one person decides to do.

Here's a good thread on it

Twitter

[SkinnyPupp]

Thread on what may happen to Russia's aviation industry

TLDR: Dead within 3 weeks. International travel for Russians will be nearly impossible, and those that will even be allowed to leave the country will have to go by land or sea

Twitter

[inv4zn]

Russia has bombed a Holocaust memorial, 5 civilians dead.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60588885

[Teriyaki]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

China is probably going to take a look at how harshly the sanctions affected Russia, and nope the fuck out of any ideas of actual invasion anywhere

Now will they decide to rely less on the world economy because of it? Russia gives them somewhat of a chance to. They can hardly afford to in order to keep things going the way they are, but it's possible.

They're at a crossroads now... Either take the opportunity to have closer than ever ties to the west, who will be more inviting than ever right now, or shut out even further away.

I think it's hard to predict, because it all comes down to what one person decides to do.

Here's a good thread on it

https://twitter.com/zhaot2005/status...69321179324418

Agree on a lot of those points, been thinking about a lot along similar lines lately watching this play out. While China and Russia are similar in a lot of ways, China is way further prepared for success should they try to pull something like this off.

A few points that differentiate them:

On economy and dependence on the West. Russia is all bark and little to no bite so far as they're far too entrenched with the world economy to decouple as they've been forced to suddenly with all the sanctions. They do not have capacity to be self reliant.

China, on the other hand has been playing the long game and is so much more prepared for a decoupling should they be forced to. Examples are everywhere in almost every sector. Their policies set in place long ago have allowed them to "re-create" most things that the west have made. Internet and control of information? Chinese facebook, Chinese twitter, Chinese google, Chinese youtube. These all exist and sanctions and shutdowns would not affect them at all.
Control of everyday necessities and tech? Chinese phone companies, Chinese car companies, Chinese designed and produced airplanes. Chinese almost everything as their policies of requiring western companies to share their tech to gain access to the Chinese market. This is likely one of the most shrewd and significant policies enacted by the Chinese Government to propel their economy forward at a significant pace.
Access to raw materials and natural resources? China has made significant investment moves on the African continent and its quite obvious to see lending billions and billions to curry the favor of all these African nations is not simple altruistic. They are buying their way and ensuring unimpeded access both during peace-time and potential war-time to the rich resources these nations could provide.

As for the military failures and lack of moral. Putin basically blindsided the troops on the ground and possibly their own generals by announcing this intervention. As passionate as his excuses tried to tug at the heartstrings of the "One Russia" and shared heritage of the Russion and Ukrainian people... It obviously didn't work as you see the battle playing out.
China on the other hand, has been playing the information and brain-washing of their people and ultimately the decision-makers/military that Taiwan is and always part of their territory for decades. This constant propaganda is shoved down their throats from birth. Unfortunate as it may be, the soldiers that China would be sending out would be way more "patriotic" and determined in their mission to carry out as directed. The fighting and decision making from top to bottom would be vastly more swift, deadly, and without hesitation.

Furthermore, this move by Russia just further proves to China that what they've been doing for the past decade or two is correct and they'll likely double down on that approach. Building out their internal economy, steal lie and cheat however much you can from the West so that sanctions and a complete de-coupling can no longer hurt you. They're not fully there yet I don't think, but they are way closer to being ready than ever before.

Worse yet, they get to further learn from every mis-step that Russia takes during this conflict.
Can only hope that the west gets their shit together and learns from this as well to find long term solutions to counter, but it might already be too late quite honestly. If the US, EU et al think similar sanctions will prevent or de-escalate a conflict in Taiwan... well I fear for the worst.

In words RS can surely understand. Russia = Too Soon Junior. China is going to be a completely different beast entirely.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by Teriyaki

Agree on a lot of those points, been thinking about a lot along similar lines lately watching this play out. While China and Russia are similar in a lot of ways, China is way further prepared for success should they try to pull something like this off.

A few points that differentiate them:

On economy and dependence on the West. Russia is all bark and little to no bite so far as they're far too entrenched with the world economy to decouple as they've been forced to suddenly with all the sanctions. They do not have capacity to be self reliant.

China, on the other hand has been playing the long game and is so much more prepared for a decoupling should they be forced to. Examples are everywhere in almost every sector. Their policies set in place long ago have allowed them to "re-create" most things that the west have made. Internet and control of information? Chinese facebook, Chinese twitter, Chinese google, Chinese youtube. These all exist and sanctions and shutdowns would not affect them at all.
Control of everyday necessities and tech? Chinese phone companies, Chinese car companies, Chinese designed and produced airplanes. Chinese almost everything as their policies of requiring western companies to share their tech to gain access to the Chinese market. This is likely one of the most shrewd and significant policies enacted by the Chinese Government to propel their economy forward at a significant pace.
Access to raw materials and natural resources? China has made significant investment moves on the African continent and its quite obvious to see lending billions and billions to curry the favor of all these African nations is not simple altruistic. They are buying their way and ensuring unimpeded access both during peace-time and potential war-time to the rich resources these nations could provide.

As for the military failures and lack of moral. Putin basically blindsided the troops on the ground and possibly their own generals by announcing this intervention. As passionate as his excuses tried to tug at the heartstrings of the "One Russia" and shared heritage of the Russion and Ukrainian people... It obviously didn't work as you see the battle playing out.
China on the other hand, has been playing the information and brain-washing of their people and ultimately the decision-makers/military that Taiwan is and always part of their territory for decades. This constant propaganda is shoved down their throats from birth. Unfortunate as it may be, the soldiers that China would be sending out would be way more "patriotic" and determined in their mission to carry out as directed. The fighting and decision making from top to bottom would be vastly more swift, deadly, and without hesitation.

Furthermore, this move by Russia just further proves to China that what they've been doing for the past decade or two is correct and they'll likely double down on that approach. Building out their internal economy, steal lie and cheat however much you can from the West so that sanctions and a complete de-coupling can no longer hurt you. They're not fully there yet I don't think, but they are way closer to being ready than ever before.

Worse yet, they get to further learn from every mis-step that Russia takes during this conflict.
Can only hope that the west gets their shit together and learns from this as well to find long term solutions to counter, but it might already be too late quite honestly. If the US, EU et al think similar sanctions will prevent or de-escalate a conflict in Taiwan... well I fear for the worst.

In words RS can surely understand. Russia = Too Soon Junior. China is going to be a completely different beast entirely.

I agree, although I don't think China has imperialist aspirations. They ultimately want to their people prosper in a peaceful world (fully in Xi's version of a good prosperous life).

All of the issues they have with other countries tend to be based on border disputes, as previous imperialists took as much of their land as they could over the years. Once the colonies became countries, they are now in dispute with China, left to deal with the mess left behind. And then of course Taiwan.

Taking Taiwan would be nearly impossible based on what I've read, and while their military is huge and modern, apparently they aren't the best trained or obedient. I don't know

If this Russia thing gets messy to the point where NATO gets involved an WW3 starts, then they might see the opportunity/excuse to strike all their border disputes. For those wondering why NATO doesn't just swoop in and take care of Russia's clearly miserable military, that's why.

[SkinnyPupp]

Twitter

Propaganda? Wait and see

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

I think the biggest mistake everyone is making is under estimating russia's ability to adapt and the numbers they have.

they can just adapt a bit, and send more.

with every new wave that enters ukraine, they'll be more prepared, and have less fog of war thanks to their comrades that entered before them.

I woulda sent a buncha newbs in first too if the cost of their lives and equipment wasn't worth much.

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

also ukraine is a very big country, and a lot of this is urban warfare, where the ukranians have the advantage of being dug in and also ambush, giving them a huge advantage.

If russia starts to secure larger areas of ukraine and stabilize their logistical lines, you'll start to see them use more of their aircraft and other more advanced/high valued weapons and machinary.

Russia can play the long game. Ukraine can only hold out for so long without allies.

[SkinnyPupp]

Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma

I woulda sent a buncha newbs in first too if the cost of their lives and equipment wasn't worth much.

Are you suggesting they intentionally let 6000 of their troops die, and a top general, giving up billions of dollars worth of equipment, in order to "do better the next go around"?

I do agree that they have the numbers to just keep throwing more and more people at the problem until they overwhelm... On paper it makes sense of course, and it's how everyone expects it to go. However if they keep smacking into a brick wall over and over again while draining their resources, it might not go the expected way. Especially when literally half of their $650 billion war chest evaporated overnight, and is being drained by the day. They have the numbers, but they might not have time to utilize them.

And if they do the expected and are able to conquer the country, then what? Good luck occupying that country, the way people are already reacting. And again, how much money and supplies will be left? Even if they can occupy, how long can they last? Meanwhile their own country will be falling apart, and their own people will be rioting.. They'll need to occupy their own people with military, let alone Ukraine!

It's crazy that it's not going as expected... Not to say the outcome will certainly be positive, but I wouldn't be so confident based on what now looks to be outdated notions.

[Tegra_Devil]

Let's just say, time is not in Russia's side

[GGnoRE]

Originally Posted by Teriyaki

... China is way further prepared for success should they try to pull something like this off.

A few points that differentiate them:

On economy and dependence on the West. Russia is all bark and little to no bite so far as they're far too entrenched with the world economy to decouple as they've been forced to suddenly with all the sanctions. They do not have capacity to be self reliant.

China, on the other hand has been playing the long game and is so much more prepared for a decoupling should they be forced to. Examples are everywhere in almost every sector. Their policies set in place long ago have allowed them to "re-create" most things that the west have made. Internet and control of information? Chinese facebook, Chinese twitter, Chinese google, Chinese youtube. These all exist and sanctions and shutdowns would not affect them at all.
Control of everyday necessities and tech? Chinese phone companies, Chinese car companies, Chinese designed and produced airplanes. Chinese almost everything as their policies of requiring western companies to share their tech to gain access to the Chinese market. This is likely one of the most shrewd and significant policies enacted by the Chinese Government to propel their economy forward at a significant pace.
Access to raw materials and natural resources? China has made significant investment moves on the African continent and its quite obvious to see lending billions and billions to curry the favor of all these African nations is not simple altruistic. They are buying their way and ensuring unimpeded access both during peace-time and potential war-time to the rich resources these nations could provide.

I think you are grossly overestimating China's ability to be self-reliant. One positive effect of 'globalization', which China has greatly benefitted from, is the golden handcuff that makes everyone's economy reliant on the rest of the world. China's economy is fueled with debt (only possible with access to global capital markets) and their economic growth is propped up by their housing market (~30% of China's GDP) which is also fueled with debt. Look at what is happening to their financial and real estate sector due to the Evergrande scandal and this is 100% self-inflicted without any pressure from the West. China's exports account for ~20% of their GDP. So now imagine what would happen when China loses access to global capital markets, loses foreign direct investments, loses exports due to sanctions etc... Its much easier for the rest of world to find a new solution without China through cooperation than for China to survive on their own. Their own version of facebook or google isn't going to do much when their real life economy is crumbling.

[El Bastardo]

Originally Posted by Bloomberg

Moscow has drawn up plans for ways to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainian from fighting back as and when cities fall under the Kremlin’s control, a European intelligence official said.

That strategy includes crackdowns on protests, detention of opponents, and potentially carrying out public executions, the official said on the condition of anonymity. So far civilians in Ukraine as well as its military have put up strong resistance, including arming themselves as volunteer forces.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

Are you suggesting they intentionally let 6000 of their troops die, and a top general, giving up billions of dollars worth of equipment, in order to "do better the next go around"?

That’s literally Russias MO for every way they’ve been in in the last 100 years lol

[SkinnyPupp]

Not intentionally

Reports that Russians think they are going to declare martial law, and close the borders so no one can leave, so there's a lot of people trying to GTFO now. Those who have the means, anyway

[quasi]

Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp

Not intentionally

Reports that Russians think they are going to declare martial law, and close the borders so no one can leave, so there's a lot of people trying to GTFO now. Those who have the means, anyway

I have a friend that's been teaching English there the last 10 years living in Moscow and he loves it there. That said he's trying to get out and come back to BC, future is so uncertain.

[El Bastardo]

Originally Posted by quasi

I have a friend that's been teaching English there the last 10 years living in Moscow and he loves it there. That said he's trying to get out and come back to BC, future is so uncertain.

What are his wages and cost of living considerations like?

[quasi]

Originally Posted by El Bastardo

What are his wages and cost of living considerations like?

Good question, we've never talked money. He has a little apartment there from the photo's I've seen it's not a dump. I know he has savings, I doubt he's making the money he was here but enough to sustain and he likes Moscow.

[320icar]

Originally Posted by quasi

I have a friend that's been teaching English there the last 10 years living in Moscow and he loves it there. That said he's trying to get out and come back to BC, future is so uncertain.

All my Russian friends who grew up here, they always had great things to say about [modern] Russia. Friendly, beautiful etc. Would always take extended vacations and one even moved back.

What an emotional swing. I never thought in my lifetime I would see the POTUS shake hands with the North Korean leader, or the ussr come back…

[El Bastardo]

Putin gave a rambling speech about how well his "special military operation" is going in Ukraine and (apparently. idk. i don't speak vodka) referred to Russian troops as "Soviet Troops"


For the pro-Russia US Republicans who constantly talk about how Biden's brain is feeble, how do they explain why Russia's leader is talking about a country that hasn't existed for over 30 years.

[MarkyMark]

So let's say Russia pulls it off and takes Ukraine... Then what? Does the world slowly start just doing business with them again because there's money to be made, or do they just stay cut off and slowly die?

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by 320icar

All my Russian friends who grew up here, they always had great things to say about [modern] Russia. Friendly, beautiful etc. Would always take extended vacations and one even moved back.

What an emotional swing. I never thought in my lifetime I would see the POTUS shake hands with the North Korean leader, or the ussr come back…

St.Petersburg and Moscow are beautiful, 30 minutes outside those cities people are still using horse and buggy and living in collapsing shacks lol.. at least from what I saw

[Acura604]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...kraine/623323/

The first hint that something was off with the initial Russian war effort came in the very first hours. As violent as the strikes looked on television, I knew they were nothing compared with the kinds of aerial and artillery campaigns that typically begin attacks on sovereign nations with intact armies, as is the case with Ukraine.

Then, as the days wore on, that sense that something was off hardened into a consensus. The initial Russian plan was a costly failure, in part because—incredibly enough—it minimized Russian strengths and maximized Russian weaknesses, apparently in service of a strategy that seems to have been predicated on terrible intelligence that underestimated the Ukrainian military and overestimated Ukrainian support for Russia. But don’t think Russia can’t or won’t change its approach. It has not lost this war, and its “victory” may be truly terrible to behold.

To understand Russia’s early missteps, consider where the Russian military is strong and where it’s weak. Its strength is defined by its firepower. The Russian military possesses an immense amount of long-range artillery. It has invested in rockets and missiles that grant it the ability to pound its opponents from a distance. During wars in Chechnya and Syria, it demonstrated the capacity and willingness to bury its enemies in rockets and bombs.

There’s a reason, for example, that Grozny, in Chechnya, was once called “the most destroyed city on earth.” The Russian military essentially obliterated the city to defeat Chechen rebels during the Second Chechen War. More recently, Russian forces in Syria have been ruthless, committing war crimes, according to the United Nations, in a largely successful scorched-earth campaign that has helped prop up the Syrian government.

Russian firepower helps mask Russian weaknesses in the training, discipline, and skill of its rank-and-file soldiers. It’s still a heavily conscript army, with soldiers drafted for a year of service. A soldier is barely competent after a year of training. Moreover, while elite Russian units do exist, the average Russian-army unit isn’t on par with leading Western militaries.

Yet even highly skilled and better-equipped Western militaries would do more to shape the battlefield before directly attacking an enemy force. The U.S. military, for example, does not fling its troops at relatively intact defensive formations. Americans forget that the 100-hour ground war during Desert Storm was preceded by a weeks-long aerial campaign designed to degrade Iraq’s army. The hours before the ground attack were preceded by a thunderous artillery barrage that blanketed Iraqi positions and demoralized Iraqi troops.

We also fought aerial campaigns in the Balkans that destroyed enemy ground forces so thoroughly that no follow-up NATO ground attack was necessary for victory.

Yes, Russia launched missiles and conducted air strikes to begin the war, but the opening bombardments were obviously and transparently not enough to seriously damage Ukraine’s ability to resist. The Russian military appears to have both conducted risky airborne operations deep behind enemy lines and hurled its poorly trained troops right into the teeth of Ukrainian defenses without truly trying to break them first. That’s why I thought something was off in the initial attack. Terrifying though it was, it was nothing like what it could have been.

Compounding the tactical error, Russia divided its forces, striking a very large European country from multiple directions at once, with no one single striking force possessing the ability to decisively punch through Ukrainian defenses in the opening days.

Why would Russia do this? We likely won’t know the answer for some time, but the most probable reason is the simplest—a catastrophic intelligence failure. Russia seems to have believed that Ukraine would collapse. It didn’t begin its invasion with a truly intense aerial or artillery bombardment because it didn’t think that would be necessary. Why destroy a city you intend to almost immediately control? Why risk inflaming Ukrainian (and world) opinion when you’d be presenting the international community with a fait accompli—something like the Crimean takeover, except on a national scale?

But for all of the stories of Russian failure, here is the very bad news: Russia will far more likely respond to battlefield setbacks the way it traditionally has—with overwhelming firepower—than by seeking peace. The history of warfare (including the history of Russian warfare) is replete with examples of early failures and terrible command decisions. But armies tend to be learning organisms. If the fight doesn’t go as they expect, they adjust tactics.

Indeed, as much as Ukrainian resistance has inspired the West, it’s hard to believe that a few days of fighting have chastened Russia or deterred President Vladimir Putin. Much more likely is that he believes he has no choice but to press on to victory. To preserve his power, he has to win. Prediction is a dangerous business, but the likelihood now is that Putin will step on the gas and increase the violence and intensity of his attack. The possibility that he’ll halt his forces in place—to say nothing of retreating from Ukrainian territory—is far slimmer.

Putin can still lose by winning. In other words, the cost of his likely battlefield victory could be so great that it ultimately diminishes Russian power or even destabilizes his regime, but even so, imagining a scenario where Ukraine wins outright is difficult. NATO-supplied weapons may bleed the Russian army, but they seem unlikely to turn the tide on the battlefield. One can hope that the combination of Ukrainian courage, NATO weapons, and low Russian morale can turn the tide, but the odds against Ukraine are long.

Indeed, we don’t possess a great deal of information about Ukrainian casualties and equipment losses. We don’t know how much longer it can go toe-to-toe with Russian invaders. Russia is still a much stronger nation. It still possesses immense firepower. It can choose to go “full Grozny” and turn Ukrainian cities into the most destroyed cities on Earth.

Yes, that would further galvanize world opinion against Putin, but he’s already isolated. He’s already sanctioned, and the Russian economy is already “reeling.” Moreover, it’s still early in the conflict. If the Russians ultimately break through, seize Kyiv, and kill or capture Ukrainian leaders, hope will give way to despair, the people of Ukraine will pay a terrifying price, and true independence will once again be a distant dream.

This is not a movie. There is no script that gives the underdog the victory in the end. NATO’s renewed solidarity is of limited benefit to Ukrainians under fire in Kyiv. Germany’s increased defense budget does absolutely nothing to destroy the miles-long Russian armored convoys now inching down Ukrainian roads.

The West has woken up. NATO is united. Russia has already been made to pay for its aggression. But its army is still in Ukraine, grabbing more territory every day. It may learn from its mistakes, growing more aggressive to both destroy the Ukrainian resistance and deter additional foreign interference in the fight. If Russia does ultimately break Ukraine, the first flush of hope is likely to be forgotten amid the ashes of defeat.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

So let's say Russia pulls it off and takes Ukraine... Then what? Does the world slowly start just doing business with them again because there's money to be made, or do they just stay cut off and slowly die?

I’m no foreign policy expert, but perhaps Russia could use Ukraine as a financial connection to the west due to sympathy for the Ukrainian people affected by the imposed sanctions on Russia?
On another note though, it’s been cute watching the anti immigration anti refugee crowd suddenly care about people affected by war. Wonder if they will go back on their virtue signalling when we start seeing refugees come over in droves, or if it won’t bother them because they are white.