RUSSIA - UKRAINE - war or posturing? Definitely war

[Acura604]

[El Bastardo]

1. Russia has an overwhelming military force going into Ukraine - how long can Ukraine hold out?


On their own, not long. Plus, Russia has been strategizing this for a long time and understands the military infrastructure of Ukraine because 30 years ago, it was their own military infrastructure too. Surveillance and espionage has only gotten better since then.

I'd be surprised if they last to March.


2. are there any 'allies' Ukraine can call upon to help in this fight? (my guess - NO)


No. Thats the whole reason for the fight. This is a long answer that I'll cut down because otherwise I'll sperg out and write a book. I'm REALLY cutting a lot out of a complicated situation. Like, a lot.

In the early 50s an agreement between a bunch of countries in Europe as well as the US and Canada was created to address the concerns that the Soviet Union would use their recently acquired infrastructure (German war reparation) and battle-seasoned troops to take some shit over. This was called NATO. Turkey became a member which was a big problem for Russia because the US could position missiles to hit Moscow from Turkey. More on the impact about this from later.

In the 1960s there was the Cuban missile crisis. We all know this story. A methed up JFK keeps missiles out of Cuba while clapping Marilyn Munroe's cheeks. Things remain tense with Russia.

In the 1970s the escalating fear of nuclear annihilation had the USSR and the US sign an agreement called SALT to keep advanced nuclear technology from glassing the planet. Subsequent agreements were signed because they needed to be updated and the agreements came with built-in expiry dates.

In the 1980s and 1990s the political landscape of the Eastern Bloc (USSR and their allies) changed. Ukraine emerged independent when the USSR broke up and signaled they wanted to have a better relationship with the west/Europe. Ukraine was NOT a fan of Russia because of many reasons, including a genocide
This was a big problem for Russia but they were too disorganized and too poor to do anything about it. They famously had to sell submarines to Pepsi because they needed the money. They weren't doing shit about Ukraine but Ukraine wasn't doing shit either because they were dealing with their own problems.

Putin becomes the leader in the early 2000s, spends time building up the country like a mob boss (making a lot of people rich in the process), and in 2014 takes a strategically unique part of Ukraine (part as a flex, part as a test of the world's reaction. He succeeds and shit is tense.

The Trump presidency happens. Long story short; it was a very good time for Putin.

And this is where we really answer your question:

Russia has spent a lot of time isolating Ukraine from the people who would be able to support them. They have kept them out of the EU (which would have helped Europe and Ukraine immensely) and have kept them out of NATO (which would have helped NATO and hurt Russia). Had NATO brought Ukraine on board, Russia would have had a serious issue. Instead of being "adjacent" like Turkey was, Ukraine was a road trip away from Moscow. NATO would end any sort of Russian ambitions to attack anyone.

Russia has signaled, hinted, and all but promised they would nuke anyone who helped Ukraine. The SALT agreements I mentioned earlier have evolved and the current agreement (expiring in 2026) is called New START. This limits the amount of nuclear-capable weaponry to around 3000. There are probably more secret nukes but, hell, all you need is one. The desire to help Ukraine is there, but people really believe Putin would launch nukes so they're not gonna force his hand. This isn't like North Korea. Putin's shit works.


3. is there really a 'genocide' going on in those separatist regions that Putin is claiming and thus his reasoning for this attack?


No. That part of Ukraine is unique in the way that their loyalty leans to Russia. I'm over-over-over-over simplifying this in a very inaccurate way, but think of that part of Ukraine as being Quebec. Their loyalties are a little different than the rest of the country, but they're still "forced" to be Ukrainian. This is where Putin's statement of "genocide" comes from. It gets more complicated because of some military stuff, but the answer is no.


4. Sanctions - where is the proof that this concept works?


Simple answer: Kinda
Specific to Russia answer: Better than you might expect.
Russia's economy isn't great and its largely propped up by gas. They exert control over Europe using their pipelines which run through Ukraine. Shut off the payments and replace the gas sources, Russia gets rekt. Sidebar on the pipeline thing: check out "Occupied" on Netflix to get a taste of what might be in the future for Europe if Ukraine is taken without much resistance.

Its hard though, and would take a lot of time and effort. For now the things that can being done (wealth seizures of rich/influential Russians who may have Putin's ear as well as cutting Russia off from global banking infrastructure) are starting to be done. Russia will hurt in the short term but if they can rally, thats a problem. Complicated answer but its the best chance to minimize harm and prevent a large scale war.




I haven't even mentioned China, Belarus, Poland, and Hungary which are moving parts in this thing. Shit has gotten complicated. World War 1-level complicated which was its own clusterfuck.




tl;dr - shits fucked yo

[68style]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Peeps gon be switching from virologists to geo-political analysts real quick

Well it’s a discussion forum dude.

Should we just put up the article and say “Okay guys this is happening, let’s wait for the experts to weigh in and read… don’t speak unless you have a degree in political science. Thanks.”

[westopher]

Hondaracers PHD in poli-sci getting heavy use on the forum though.

[320icar]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Turd can ruin a country without Parkinson’s

Holy fuck dude a broken record would call you a broken record. We fucking get it

[westopher]

I mean yeah Putin is starting a war that will cause mass casualties of innocent humans but have you heard about SNC lavalin? Bro that’s real dictator.

[Hondaracer]

[Euro7r]

Putin warned foreigners that intervene will see consequences. Literally the world does not condone their actions, what makes them think they even stand a chance if countries combined their military power against Russia. Maybe I'm missing something here?

This shit is stupid as we are in the 21st century and still war....

[AzNightmare]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraina/com...n7r/airstrike/

damn.... Scary


Saw this thread yesterday too.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueOffMyCh..._from_ukraine/

[GGnoRE]

Originally Posted by Euro7r

Literally the world does not condone their actions, what makes them think they even stand a chance if countries combined their military power against Russia. Maybe I'm missing something here?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-e...ne-11645711417
"Mr. Biden has said he has no intention of sending U.S. troops into Ukraine to fight."

Who's going to stop them? You ready to join the army? Russia knows western allies are not going to sacrifice lives to save Ukraine.

[68style]

I think like El Bastardo already said… it’s pretty obvious Putin intends to go nuclear if the outside interferes directly.

That said, I still feel ashamed at the response.

Understandable… but also shameful.

[twitchyzero]

putin declaring war as UN security council meets is about as facepalm as mussolini invading ethiopia when the league told him to reconsider

first thing out of biden's mouth was thoughts & prayers..can someone elaborate what else can be done without angering kremlin to consider nulcear options?

thank freaking god taiwan is an island or Xi would've greenlit an invasion years ago

[pastarocket]

Well, I believe that Turd is a little puppy compared to the crazy Russian bear in Putin.

News reports of Russians risking their lives by protesting in Pushkin Square in Moscow. Russians who are protesting against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Protesters who are getting dragged from the streets during their arrests.

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/russians-...streets-319351

PoliticsJOE
@PoliticsJOE_UK
Fearless Russians defy secret police to protest invasion of Ukraine.

They face certain imprisonment and possible felony charges.

These people are willing to risk their lives against a dictator who ordered 170 thousand soldiers, and Russian military hardware to invade Ukraine.

The Flu Trucks Klan have it much easier in Canada in terms of their right and freedom to protest against the Covid mandate. They got to protest for over three weeks in Ottawa and any part of Canada. -bring in fuel to their trucks. -soak in saunas, hot tubs, and bring bouncy castles to protest sites for their kids.

Russian protesters against Putin's war on Ukraine? -not even close to what the Karen Convoy had in terms of rights to protest against our federal government.

[El Bastardo]

Originally Posted by 68style

I think like El Bastardo already said… it’s pretty obvious Putin intends to go nuclear if the outside interferes directly.

I took so many classes on the Cold War era and the USSR that I got a second minor in government completely unintentionally. This is kind of like seeing the sequel airing live on CNN.


This book, in particular, is about to be very popular. It was written in 1997 but has been called "Putin's Playbook" because of how much it has shaped the Russian foreign policy over the last couple of decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Founda...of_Geopolitics

On Ukraine in particular -

"Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible"

[Acura604]

Source: AP NEWS


KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensnkyy has urged Moscow to end hostilities, adding that Russian airborne troops have been checked outside Kyiv.

“It wasn’t Ukraine that chose the path of war, but Ukraine is offering to go back to the path of peace,” he said Thursday.

He said a Russian airborne force in Hostomel airport outside Kyiv, which has a big runway, has been stopped and is being destroyed.

The Ukrainian leader said many Russian warplanes and armored vehicles were destroyed but didn’t give numbers. He also said an unspecified number of Russian troops was captured.

He said a difficult situation is developing in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city just over 20 kilometers from the Russian border. In the north the Russians are slowly advancing toward Chernihiv, Zelenskyy said.

He appealed to global leaders, saying that “if you don’t help us now, if you fail to offer strong assistance to Ukraine, tomorrow the war will knock on your door.”




MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin says he was “forced” to order a military action in Ukraine because of the Western refusal to heed Russian security demands.

Speaking at a Kremlin meeting with businesspeople Thursday, Putin said the military action was a “forced measure” that stemmed from rising security risks for Russia.

He said that he was surprised by the West’s “intransigence” regarding Moscow’s security demands. “I was surprised that didn’t move a millimeter on any issue,” he said. “They have left us no chance to act differently.”

Turning to Western sanctions, he said “Russia remains part of the global economy and isn’t going to hurt the system that it is part of as long as it remains there.”

“Our partners should realize that and not set a goal to push us out of the system,” he said in an apparent warning to the West.



https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...d6ac0ca78142fd

[murd0c]

Russia now has full control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant... This is going from bad to worse, Putin is a loose cannon right now and it seems anything is possible.

[ImportPsycho]

can we just have one normal year...

[murd0c]

My family is originally from Ukraine and I still have extended family on the Ukraine/Russian border. I'm super scared and worried for them right now. I swear the world has gone to hell in a handbasket and it's never going to go back to normal

[nabs]

Originally Posted by murd0c

Russia now has full control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant... This is going from bad to worse, Putin is a loose cannon right now and it seems anything is possible.

I just read that, they won't do anything to the site to harm it, I think its just the fact that thats how far they have reached. Its a pretty large area and its fairly close to Kiev.

[StylinRed]

Originally Posted by StylinRed

https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

This is an interesting lecture back during Crimea

This would answer most of all y'alls questions, you just gotta sit thru it, but first 10mins answers like half the questions on here

[StylinRed]

Russia is still connected to the swift banking system, and no sanctions on Putins personal financials, energy trade and payments with Russia aren't being affected, so basically the world doesn't care that Ukraine is being taken back, they're just putting on a TV show

[bcrdukes]

Originally Posted by westopher

Hondaracers PHD in poli-sci getting heavy use on the forum though.

Hard to argue with the guy who ranks within the (technically) top 2 posters.

[68style]

Powerful speech by President Zelensky

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...tm_name=iossmf

[320icar]

Originally Posted by Euro7r

Putin warned foreigners that intervene will see consequences. Literally the world does not condone their actions, what makes them think they even stand a chance if countries combined their military power against Russia. Maybe I'm missing something here?

This shit is stupid as we are in the 21st century and still war....

In case you missed it.

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia leads the world with 6,200 nuclear weapons. The U.S. has 5,600. The weapons of mass destruction can kill hundreds of thousands of people at once.18 hours ago

[El Bastardo]

https://www.state.gov/new-start/

Strategic Offensive Limits: The New START Treaty entered into force on February 5, 2011. Under the treaty, the United States and the Russian Federation had seven years to meet the treaty’s central limits on strategic offensive arms (by February 5, 2018) and are then obligated to maintain those limits for as long as the treaty remains in force.

Aggregate limits:

Both the United States and the Russian Federation met the central limits of the New START Treaty by February 5, 2018, and have stayed at or below them ever since. Those limits are:

700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments;
1,550 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments (each such heavy bomber is counted as one warhead toward this limit);
800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.




Thats what is SUPPOSED to be. But I have no doubt they're lying.