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I think you've basically named everything that can go wrong. My guess would be to first check the gauge to make sure nothing is sticking and possibly even temporarily swap in another cluster if someone has a spare kicking around. Just to try to rule that out first. It's relatively quick, easy, and the cheapest fix. If that doesn't solve it, drop the tank (or access it through the hole in the body, if the FB's have that ability) and swap in a new sender. Even if that's not the issue, it's always good to replace them every few years.
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