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if you're feeding HD TV-in and doing recording/encoding stuff... CPU.
if all you are doing is watching 1080p MKV files, neither.
graphics cards are pretty much only useful for 3D applications. I'd say go with the dual-core and whichever graphics card is quieter. Thats assuming you're OK with slightly longer load times up to the point where you hit the play button, otherwise go QC and 9500gt.
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