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I'm not sure putting AAPL for 200... but its current price is surely inflated. I'd put its target price depending on iPhone5. If it's good, $400~450 isn't very far with the marketing going around. If it's bad, $250.
From what I can tell in iOS5 and iCloud, I think AAPL is running out of product ideas. I'd say wait until iPhone5 announcement. If it's still boring or not really exciting, I'd put a long term put on AAPL too.
The way to think of is that AAPL is an one trick pony. If App Store starts to lose momentum, it's time to get out of it. Back in RIMM's dominant days, ppl think RIMM as godlike, then other Smartphone OSes started showing up and RIMM lost its edge.
AAPL could very well be the next RIMM (on the mobile section at least) with the fierce competition and countless innovations week after week from manufacturers using Android like LG, Samsung, HTC... etc, while iPhone updates once a year.
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Nothing for now
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