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Originally Posted by Hehe
I don't think the comments I made above was to bet against AAPL. The thing is, don't let the marketing hoopla going on with AAPL confuse the fundamental of investment, looking forward.
What AAPL had until now and having now is irrelevant. 5 years ago, when RIMM was around 140, you could replace the word AAPL with RIMM and many articles with similar perspective would pop up.
I'm just saying the the new iCloud/iOS5 wasn't impressed. It didn't offer much beyond what we can see from competitors and even less in term of revenue creation. How can AAPL retain its momentum is crucial to its stock price. Assuming current price reflects directly on the current value of AAPL, the popularity of iPhone justify AAPL's price.
If competitors start to pull ahead of iPhones, and the market starting to shift, it would be 2x more difficult for AAPL to make a comeback, look where RIMM is now. AAPL has been innovative the last 5 years with iPhones and iPads... will they be able to create new product to push AAPL's price forward? From current info, it's hard to tell. But if iPhone5 is on par with competition at best, I would say shorting on AAPL might not be a bad idea.
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The failure of RIMM was they weren't able to keep up in their software. AAPL was so successful in their iphones is the ios software. Their closest competition right now is Google Android. But the problem for the Android is there are too many products out their. Nobody can tell which one is better plus it's installed of manufacturers garbage apps. AAPL is able to create hardware, software, and supporting apps for their products. Right now, I don't see any company that can compete against AAPL in providing this type of environment. Google might be able to but they will fail until they control their hardware production as well.
Like I said before, the earning power of AAPL is not just iphones but the solid business of their computers, laptops, and ipods. They have growing businesses in their Apps store and ipads.
Even aside from all this, AAPL also has very loyal customers. They are willing to upgrade and adapt to AAPL new products.