Quote:
Originally Posted by lime56
but seriously.... do i think a recession is coming?
defined as two quarters of negative growth
if QE wasnt in place, everyone would have been fucked
even with it in place, growth is so miminal
FED is not doing any more monetary policy and has pointed to the US to address it with fiscal policy
europe is not going to have positive GDP.. i dont see how when everyone is implementing austerity measures
China is already forecasting its exports are slowing or DOA
even though it has a positive GDP factor... it is slowing too and is reflecting the fact that world demand for its exports are slowing
like you say, companies are cash rich on its balance sheets and cutting costs by reducing payroll..
how the hell does that look like the economy is growing????
they just hoarding for a rainy day i think
but talk to the locals here, business owners, landlords etc
sentiment is not good.. .more for lease signs popping up in downtown area... avg work per week for employees are getting cut
and we're in canada where shit is good
did you hear what Paulson's hedge fund performance this last year? he went long equities/commodities and got burned bad... down 47% this year alone..
and this is the guy who bet against subprime and got it right (you know, the GS scandal)
i dont beat my chest unlike you trying to justify companies i own or trade etc
denial is the worst for justifying positions in any portfolio
just letting guys here made aware that prices should come down if you have long term perspective, so why buy now?
you say you have a diversified portfolio... give me a break...CAT CUMMINS POT commodities etc....
do this forum a favor and show what a truly diversified portfolio is
a five stock basket isnt it
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you are contradicting yourself by lambasting my 'politicians can prevent a recession' yet you just say that without QE we'd be f'd & in a recession, thus, by definition, aren't you saying that politicians/government are preventing a recession & attempting to push the economy along.
if you were to study any kind of economics, you'd appreciate that economies OFTEN need political intervention to get them on the right track.
and, yes, thank you, you can have a diversified portfolio with about 10 stocks, whcih is about what i hold - why 10, because more than 10 can you truly say that you know everything that you need to know about a company, industry, sector, to be comfortable putting your money into it, are you comfortable making a decision if part of the story changes? i'd say unless you have no life and only work part time, then perhaps, but i can't afford that kind of time investigating dozens of stocks that i own.
and i don't just own industrial & ag plays, but i believe strongly in ag being a nice portion of my portfolio, as its a great long term play and something that I can go on record as saying won't go to $0 anytime soon (assuming you pick quality companies)
you make yourself sound like people should listen to you - if anyone goes and looks at your 'advice', i think they'd be in shock, ESPECIALLY attempting to trade AAPL the day after Jobs' passing away. Like that wasn't priced in, as if that weren't priced in immediately after her retired. No one was selling on that news, it was a horrible piece of news, on a human front, but from a business standpoint it wasn't news at all, as we all knew it was, sadly, coming. AAPL moved with the market that day. Today, AAPL went up about 5% on the actions of POLITICIANS in Europe, decreasing peoples' perception of the gravity of the European debt crisis / Europe's ability to handle it, along with some continued positive news out of the US (some people in the media are now saying 'no recession in the US' - i expect lime to start repeating that, now that he's read it, i don't expect much independent thought)
For full disclosure, i own AAPL, have done for a long time, have loads of paper gains, will get loads more paper gains, and one day will take some more realized gains - when Jobs resigned, I was sad, but didn't change the long term outlook on AAPL, when Jobs died, i was very sad as a 56 year old man with more money than you'd ever imagined passed away way too early - didn't change my opinion on AAPL's success, when iPhone4S was released, i was disappointed as i was hoping for an iPhone5, but not shocked... still they have >1M preorders, and i have no doubt the iPhone5 will be great when released early next year - between now and then, i expect AAPL to keep on, slowly but surely, increasing in value - why, b/c its a game changer in the tech sector, an industry leader, an amazingly well run company, with amazing products, which will keep on innovating. so rather than trying to play games with financials for a week, i'd say get in on some AAPL on dips - buy in the $350's/$360's - better yet, buy some options