Quote:
Originally Posted by Jermyzy
My personal opinion (no research to back this up) is that markets are just jittery over the Euro debt deal. Once they finally hammer out the details, the markets will recover partially. I don't think there will be another recession either, but we'll see!
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I disagree. Being based in London, I have been to most of the affected eurozone countries in the past 6-12 months. We are definitely heading into a recession. Unemployment is not only stubbornly high, it has remained high for a persistent period. Both Europe and the US are now the largest debtor entities not just in the world, but in the history of the world. Most companies are not retreating from Europe and guarding against another slowdown. According to the ECRI, which stands out as being the only research institute that has predicted the last two recessions (2000, 2008) without a single case of crying wolf, has just issued a recession forecast warning to their clients at the end of Sept. Interestingly, both times in the past that the ECRI has issued a recession warning, the S&P rose for nearly a month before crashing below 800-900. The ECRI warning was around 30 Sept, we just saw a dead cat bounce rally in October, and from now until 2012 2Q we'll probably see the S&P decline. Having been following the eurozone problems over the past 4-5 years, as well as those in the US, I have no doubt that we're entering into (or are already in) a recession. For those who got excited about the 2.5% GDP growth that was just reported, well, the quarter before the 2008 recession there was a similar spike in GDP. We all know what happened next.....