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I contribute to threads in the offtopic forum
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: not vancouver
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Just had someone PM me, and I gave a pretty good US vs. Canada analysis of investment properties - now, tehre are simplications below, so no need to nit pick, I know there will be some +/-'s but generally this is true
I also don't want to turn the last two paragraphs into a debate - these are my opinions on what the local market will do, nothing more, if you don't agree, not a problem, but no need to start something here, my opinions drive my and my investors' decisions, if you don't agree, not a problem:
Vancouver - Downtown apartment (2bed 2bath) rent: $1500 a month, would sell for about $450K
Mortgage interest ONLY payments at 3% (will only go up) = $1125 (i've assumed 100% mortgage for simplicity to ignore opportunity cost of downpayment)
Monthly maintenance fee = $300
Property tax = $250-300 per month
Insurance = $50 per month (assume $600 per year as fair)
Misc = $50 per month (I always have a contingency)
Total monthly cost = $1,775
Oh, that's a $275 cash outflow every month... and honestly, I can't think property (Especially apartments which are overbuilt in vancouver/richmond) will go up much more given that interest rates are at all time lows.
Calgary
70 or 80's 2 bed, 1 bath apartment is about $175K, would rent for $1,100 (this is from actuals a friend owns, and I've looked at Calgary - Edmonton is meant to be a better place to buy, but I just think its overpriced right now, and I just don't like the climate there for an investment)
Mortgage (interest only on full mortgage) = 437
Maintenance fee = $350-450 (snow removal makes this really high)
Property tax = $150 -200? around there
Insurance = $50
Contingency = $50
Total = $1,037 on the low side... so basically break even (loss if you consider vacancy rates, as you will have vacancy once in a while.
Prices in Canada are too high, we are blessed to have a great banking system, BUT, CMHC insuring all these mortgages is scary, our prices are too high, and will inevitably come down, I'm expecting this as soon as we see a 1/4% rise in interest rates, either later 2012 or early 2013, then we will see a long period of slow decreases in values for 5 years or so (slightly down or stable, but no up)
people talk of chinese investors this and that, but really they are buying high end units (people who live here are different, they are locals, so they just have the local effect) - investors can never drive a market, as I am seeing in Phoenix, investors maintain prices at where they are and are decreasing available units, but what will drive the local market will be locals when their credit comes back, along with their desire to own again and banks willingness to lend
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