[Gridlock]

Ok, I am interested in capturing the details of the spending.

So, super simple...let's lay it out. The NDP is saying the liberal deficit is 790 million. So we're going to use that as a baseline, as it makes this a lot easier. In order to come out to the deficit amount as a zero figure, we need to raise revenue to match any increased spending.

Income/Revenue:
BC NDP lays out 2013 election platform fiscal plan | BC NDP

• Corporate income tax rate increased from 11 to 12 per cent. 
Effective October 1, 2013, this measure will add $100 million in revenue in 2013-14, and $200 million in 2014-15 and 2015-16. British Columbia will still have the fifth-lowest corporate tax rate in Canada. There will be no increase to the small business rate or the small business earnings threshold.

+100M 2013 +200M 2014 +200M 2015

• Corporation capital tax reinstated on financial institutions. Effective October 1, 2013, the NDP will reinstate the corporation capital tax on financial institutions. Banks will pay three per cent, while financial institutions with headquarters in BC including credit unions will pay one per cent. Credit unions with capital holdings less than $20 million will be exempt. This measure will add $75 million in revenue in 2013-14, and $150 million in 2014-15 and 2015-16.

+75M 2013 +150M 2014 +150M 2015

• High income earners’ personal income tax increased.
 Effective January 1, 2014, the top two per cent of high income earners in BC will see an increase to 19 per cent on taxable individual income above $150,000. This measure will add $50 million in revenue in 2013-14, $200 million in 2014-15 and $240 million in 2015-16.

+50M 2013 +200M 2014 +240M 2015

• Carbon Tax base expanded to vented oil and gas emissions.
 Effective April 1, 2014, an NDP government will expand the application base of the carbon tax to include vented emissions from oil and gas operations, capturing an additional five per cent of carbon emissions in the province and contributing to British Columbia's climate action goals. This measure will add $35 million in revenue in 2014-15, $70 million in 2015-16, and $100 million in 2016-17. The objective of this measure is to ultimately drive down emissions and stimulate innovation in the sector.

+0M 2013 +35M 2014 +70M 2015

• Existing and budgeted BC Liberal government spending reallocated to new priorities.
An NDP government will reallocate some program and discretionary spending to new priorities, shifting $86 million in 2013-14, $148 million in 2014-15 and $328 million in 2015-16. Some examples of program reallocations include:
- the BC Training and Education Savings Grant and Early Years Strategy will be repurposed into a new childcare and early education plan; and,
- the Early Childhood Tax Benefit will be repurposed as part of a new poverty reduction strategy.

I'm going to include shifted money as 'new' money as something suffers at a new expense

+86M 2013 +148M 2014 +328M 2015

Total:

+311M 2013 +733M 2014 +988M 2015

Spending:

Arts
NDP promises to boost B.C. Arts Council budget to $29 million | Georgia Straight

-3M 2013 -4M 2014 -5M 2015(assumed based on increasing by 5 million over 3 years)

Welfare
BC NDP Promise Welfare Raise, Family Bonus Program

558 million over 3 years
-58M 2013 -200M 2014 -300M 2015(assumed spread, weighted towards year 3)

Film

Dix

45M annually(with 93 million in additional revenue-to me that implies economic spinoff, so I'm not going to include it. Obviously, yes, that would come back in taxes, but so hard to track. If it was direct income to gov't, the liberals would make that deal all day long.

-45M 2013 -45M 2014 -45M 2015

Agriculture

NDP promises $24 million to grow local agriculture industry | Globalnews.ca

8M annual
-8M 2013 -8M 2014 -8M 2015

BC Ferries
NDP would freeze ferry rates; create student grant program | CTV British Columbia News

-15M 2013 -25M 2014 -0M 2015

Current Total:

Sub: -129M 2013 -282M 2014 -358M 2015
Total(Inc-Spd)
+182M 2013 +451M 2014 +630M 2015

My thoughts:

I don't think you'll see the spend numbers dip into negative territory(obvi, if I can do this math, anyone can) but I do find some of their assumptions to be "dubious" when you start actually looking at it.

1. Increased tax on high earners. I can see a jump in rev for year 2(2014) as you have a full year to realize the revenue, but that is quite a jump into year 3, hopefully accounting for some economic growth, but it also must assume that high income earners won't change their habits.

3. In fact, I find all the year 3 assumptions to be dubious. Here's the beautiful part...its easy to control spending. If I say I'm going to spend $20, I am going to spend $20. If I say I'm going to earn $20...2 years from now...thats now an assumption. It will be difficult to stop a promised program if your revenues don't materialize.

4. It's shown as positive here, but its all negative. Remember, 790M deficit is new normal in this scenario.

Currently planned deficit, using my #'s:

-608M 2013 -339M 2014 -160M 2015