It's become pretty apparent that there isn't going to be a bubble, but a soft correction which has already started to happen.
From what I've read and followed, it seems starter condos (< $500k) and plus-$1mil homes have seen drops or flat sales values over the past year or two; only SFH's in the upper six-figures have still been appreciating. Even a
'condo report' sponsored by Royal LePage states that in the short term (~2 years) there will be "market instability" and "turbulence"
Also re: buying now and keeping for 10+ years. Yes if that's the plan it makes sense, but most people getting into their first home look to buy 'starter homes' with the intent of upgrading in ~5 years. If that's the case now, and a correction occurs (or even if home value stays completely flat), you are likely going to end up with less asset value overall in five-years time if you bought now than if you had waited with the 'soft correction' that everybody seems to be touting.
Example using calculator posted earlier:
Vancouver Housing Bubble Calculator
$300k home, assume 3 years flat, 3 years of 3% growth, home value after 6 years is $327,818; adjusted for 3% inflation (as in the site) is actually worth $273k in today's dollars. Or being conservative adjusted to today's inflation (1.2%) is only $305k.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyxx
Sonick is a genius. I won't go into detail what's so great about his post. But it's damn good!
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