Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp
Ulic I appreciate you contributing your knowledge in investment, but what you are showing off here is pure fluke.
The reason for the current drop is an acute reaction to a pretty big issue many exchanges are having, and a flood of 70K bitcoin or so stolen from silk road 2 onto the market
Basically, there is a known issue in the way bitcoin works, in that unconfirmed transactions can be use to 'trick' certain wallets into thinking they are new transactions. This isn't an issue for most wallets, unless the programmers are (wrongly) using unconfirmed transactions without any extra checking. This is called transaction malleability (or something like that)
So Mt Gox, the trainwreck I have been warning everyone about since the beginning, of course uses shitty code, and was being exploited by people using this method. They shut down withdrawals completely, and the market reacted. A few other wallet apps and exchanges had to do the same thing, and the market reacted again.
Sorry but if it wasn't for this issue, your charts wouldn't match up at all. It would still be humming along at around $750-800. Nothing about this price drop corresponds to what you are saying at all. Enjoy your "thanks" from the usual bitcoin haters though  |
it's no fluke dude.
ask any technical trader.
when the charts match up, and then all that it's waiting for is a fundamental reason for it to force the pattern through.
I can pull up any chart whether it be grains, financials, or metals or whatever.
you can trade on patterns, and you can zoom in to the day which the pattern is established, and when the pattern follows through, u can bet on that day, some news came out to enforce the pattern and force the pattern through.
solid examples are charts of grains starting to rise and follow rising patterns, FAR before the news of droughts come out. and then when the news comes out that there is a drought scare, the pattern follows through.
u can think of the charts and patterns as human behaviour, and then when they follow through, it's the behaviour being enhanced by news that favours the direction of the charts and also favours the people that follow patterns. in some ways it's a self fulfilling prophecy.
but in no way is it a fluke.
or on the flip side you can say everything is a fluke, because the market only goes up down or sideways. i mean 1/3 chances aint bad. so if i flip a 3 sided die and it tells me to buy... u can buy anywhere and if it goes up, you can say it's a fluke, you can say it's because of some fundamental news, or u can say it's a chart pattern.
but charts don't lie. they tell u live news in the visual form. it doesn't matter WHAT the news is, you can just see the direction and strength, which is all that matters.
for example if you were trading based on the pattern i posted up, you woulda shorted the day i originally posted this, and if the pattern breaks, and it kept going up, you would get out immediately as soon as the pattern doesn't match. but it kept matching, day in and day out, for weeks. and it still is matching.
technical, fundamental, or fluke.... all that matters is it works consistently more so than not... the reasons behind it don't matter (and not knowable, because of the chaotic nature of human behaviour and information)... the only reason that matters is if you make money.
another thing to think about, see those 2 small red days before this big drop? you don't think those two days all the people that had insider news on exhanges going to shits sold their btc??? thats why they were red days. BUT YOU don't know that news till its out. but those people did. when they sold, they move the market down.
as a technical trader, i see the market go down, i don't know why, and i dont care why. i just know its going down and there's probably news that i don't know about. but if i believe the charts, then i KNOW someone KNOWS something and is pushing it down. where as you won't know or believe till news hits mainstream, which is way after and when the market has already tanked.
all the insiders and secondary and third "insiders" know before you know. they're the ones that are moving the markets first. you cant possibly get that news unless you are an insider too.. but most of us if not all of us, are NOT insiders, so the charts are the only thing we have. and yeah... self fulfilling prophecy. if enough people believe what they see, and sell into it, it will go down. thats all that charts are man.
it's never a "fluke". the charts told you before the news told you. the charts are a form of news. just the details aren't there, only the strength and the direction.
because bitcoin's volume is low and most of the traders are newbs, patterns and news are usually very accurate in moving the markets.
but if you look at a more complex market like forex, or some other internationally traded instrument, with exponentially more unknowable chaotic factors... you would know that news usually makes the markets move opposite. like why would if a country misses its GDP projection on the down side, why would the market spike up?
why does the market spike down whenever apple announces their new shit? because of insiders. they have already bought in, or sold out, of whatever news is coming out and a lot of the pricing is ALREADY factored into the market. but its chaotic you see, just because most of is factored in doesn't mean 100% it will move the opposite way. what if tons of newbs decide to buy in or sell out cuz they're scared? what if a billion dollar saudi prince that has no idea what he's doing throws in a couple hundred mill for fun?
in some ways yes, you're right, it's a fluke, because it's all chaotic. so all you have are patterns that have repeated and all you're doing is risk managing based on the best info you have... and charts is one of the best if not the best... because it accounts for all chaotic factors LIVE as you look at it. where as the news you base your knowledge on is just a small spec of ALL the news affecting the market (and only looking back too).... hindsight is 20/20. it always looks logical and all the news always makes sense when u look backwards.
but we aren't playing the backwards game... we're playing the forwards game.