Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp
I think on the other page I showed a chart of gold that matched it up.. you could also put a chart of the weather trends over the last 5 years, or a chart of the readership of rage comics, or any shit you want.
The two "red days" aren't due to insiders, it was just the initial reaction to transaction maelability. The second big drop was someone emptying silk road 2's account, and CLAIMING it was due to this issue (it's almost impossible to do it this way btw so there is definitely going to be more news coming in)
All your charts show is that prices go up, then they go down, then they go up again. Etc. Big deal  |
yeah and like i said, charts are fractal, you can find patterns within patterns within patterns. ..
yes you can pull up rage comics or gold or anything. and if the pattern matches, it has a LIKELIHOOD of following through the pattern... you just have to believe the pattern is telling you news which you don't have.... and follow it.
it's all risk management dude.... as soon as you realise you misperceived the pattern, and you were wrong, you fucking cut your losses short and get the fuck out.
risk management is all it is dude.
yes, all the charts go up and down and up and down cuz they're cyclical in some way and follow patterns...
if you were trading real instruments and hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions of dollars were on the line or u had investors or CEOs barking down your neck... you would know the ups and downs are very important.
you cant hold through downs if you have to meet targets and predict markets precisely.
especially if you're leveraged/trading on a margin account.
if you just close your eyes and let it slide, you'll lose the shirt off your back, literally.
the charts tell you where to get in and where to get out man. it's important.
not to knock on your mentality, because everyone, even the pros go through that phase. when you stare at these charts day in and day out for years, trading, you realise fundamentals are just a small part of the whole picture.
and when you meet traders that have successfully consistently made millions upon millions just following chart patterns... i duno how one could still call it a fluke.
and like you said, those red days something happened, but you DONT know that happened till AFTER it happened.
anyway, someone that followed that pattern would have made a lot of money vs someone that didn't... that's all that matters. whoever makes money is "right".
i've worked at the biggest firm in asia trading and also one of the few firms in vancouver for the past 6 years. i've learnt a lot and all my preconceptions of the markets have been knocked to the ground.
at first i was like there's no fucking way all there is to it is looking at some fucking lines on a screen. what about economics? what about getting your CFA? what about knowing math and how to calculate or project those crazy numbers i hear on the news all the time?
but really, that's pretty much all there is to it.
99% of people that invest money into any market lose money overall. i've walked through warehouses full of client files over the past 30 years, all of them dead accounts.
there's one consistent thing about the losers, they don't listen and believe what the market is telling them. they believe they know something other people don't. or theyre so certain that some fact they know is GOING to move the market in their favor.
when you realise it's all chaotic, and that the only real thing u have going for you is the reoccurring patterns that happen in chaotic instruments... then all that's left is risk management.
the markets is a random moving entity... that's the video game.
money is your life.
all you're doing is managing that money when you enter.
think of it like diablo hardcore mode. you got your life and 1 chance. if you hit 0 you're dead. when you encounter monsters... you see familiar patterns from your encounters in the past, and you match those patterns up with whether or not you were successful.
if you encounter some pattern where you were not successful, you probably won't be again. so you avoid that fight. you don't engage (trade).
when you see a pattern of familiarity, and you were highly successful before, you fucking go all in. but at the first sign where you realise you're wrong, you fucking pull out and take your small losses.
that's all it is man. patterns.
i know it seems like hocuspocus. but you gotta realise, most people think there's some magic formula or logic behind the markets... there isn't. it's chaotic.
it's like playing poker. playing on probabilities from patterns you see. when you don't like what you see, you fold, you take the small loss and wait till when the pattern is in your favor. cuz you can never predict what will happen next, but you can guestimate your odds based on historical experience/patterns.
the poker example was better than diablo. LOL.