Quote:
Originally Posted by SkinnyPupp
BTW you said the exact same thing last time there was a dip, but it didn't go under $650 and went back to $800 until now
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it went below 500 dude... and then it went back up to 1000, and now it has a new low of 302 or whatever.
you think if someone bought at the 500 low, they woulda really sold at 1000?
or do u think they're still holding on... buying more cuz "it cant go lower" or "it's low, its a good time to buy".
you have to factor in human elements.
like for yourself... have u sold?
has anyone on this thread sold high? and bought back lower?
someone highly disciplined woulda bought after the knife down, on the first green bar, and sold at the first red, doubling their money. but how many people actually followed through with that?
and others like you, have the same mentality, they will not believe the charts, they think all these falls are just "opportunities to buy" at a "good price" cuz its "lower".
but their mindset is completely biased to one direction. everything they see is "good to buy"
if its low it's "good to buy cuz its low price"
if its high it's "good to hold cuz it's gonna go higher"
when is it ever a good time to sell then?
greed of hoping there could be more takes over. and you don't sell.
when it keeps tanking, fear, of it tanking more takes over, and you sell when you shouldnt.
if you talk to most people that have invested and gave up, it's because they do exactly what i just mentioned above. they think it's all gambling and bullshit. because they didnt have good risk management.
whereas someone that just followed the pattern and bought and sold where they shoulda according to the charts (NOT according to how they feel), woulda made money.
http://www.amazon.ca/Market-Wizards-...market+wizards
here's another book.
they interview the top traders of our times. interestingly enough they ALL have very different strategies and different things to say about the same topic. but yet they all make money. why?
they all have ONE thing in common... very very very good risk management.
i can probably say the best poker players also have the same attributes.
sure i said don't catch a falling knife, but me not buying on those falls, means i had 0 chance of losing money. where as people who bought... if they made money (if they even sold when it was profitable), most probably lost money and are still in a loss.
so who's right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hondaracer
So the next time it cracks $1000 that chart is irrelevant?
Posted via RS Mobile
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you cannot look at charts rigidly. if u see a matching pattern, it probably is a matching pattern. if you stare at it too long and try to force yourself to see something, it's probably not there.
if the charts over the next 2-3 weeks suddenly spike up and go through 1000, then the pattern ended early. and yes, the pattern would be over. and you would look for a different pattern.
the pattern i posted is a typical long term "bubble/hype" market pattern. whenever a chart is reaching an over extended point in its life and needs a huge correction (downfall), that pattern USUALLY appears.
the biggest thing to look for is an exponential rise, and a super high made, then a secondary high that's not as high. that's the "main" pattern.
remember patterns don't definitively begin anywhere and end anywhere. you have to just try to match patterns you see in the time frame you're comfortable looking/trading at.
i would say over the next few days there is a high chance that the market will return to 450-550, before continuing down to ~260. that is if the pattern continues.