Quote:
Originally Posted by GrapeDrink
I think the Blues right now have the advantage of being in an easier division atm as odd as that sounds since their division is piling on the points but Chi right now is missing both Toews and Kane, while they both expected to be back for playoffs you have to wonder how banged up they really are. Colorado is not as good as their record would indicate + they lost Duchene for the first round, they are a better version of the Leafs right now in that they consistently get outshot and outchanced but winning with Varlamov being massive. Whereas you look at the pacific, sadly it looks like my Sharks will have to play the Kings in round 1, every advanced stat would indicate are 2 legit contenders because the Ducks are essentially the flipside of Colorado they consistently get outshot/outchanced but they scoring on 11% on their shots when the next highest is 8% so unless you buy Anaheim has the best shooters in the NHL they due for some terrible regression and imo the perfect candidate for a round 1 upset.
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While you make good points, all that says to me is that STL will have an easier time in the second round. One of Anaheim SJ has to play LAK (which could easily be the WCF) so one of those 3 teams will get banged up good. The second round is a reseed, so if STL gets Dallas or Phoenix, they should theoretically be in great shape for the second round against the likely Pacific Division opponent they have to face.
The argument you're making is broken by the Vancouver Canucks in 2011. They didn't win the cup (yes we know), but they led the league in every stat to what you could argue was 40 games against non-playoff teams in the NW division and eventually made the final. Being in an easier division helps but it doesn't seem to correlate to better/worse playoff-run chances. You need to look at their roster top to bottom, and STL with Miller is probably the deepest team in the league on paper (LAK, Boston and SJ are pretty damn close though).
Obviously, this is all speculation. But if I were to base predictions on anything, it'd be the names on the roster. It's not like STL is underperforming also- they are near the top of the league, with what you can argue is a really deep roster. They're built for a long run now and will likely get close if not win it all in the next few years.