[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

foreign money has an material affect on vancouver RE or not, we have no hard data to analyze this stuff. even i don't think the government has hard data in front of them to give a definitive yes to say that the rich Chinese is having a material impact on Vancouver RE.

the bigger impact with regards to foreign money having impact on Van RE is through psychology. the investor immigration program had a 50k backlog of people waiting to come to this country mainly to Vancouver of course. what the news story don't tell you is that some of them have already committed their capital into our real estate market. second of all this information was pretty public if you are in the loop of RE so this has created a massive urgency on the vancouver locals to get in front of this buying stampead if IIP was going to reopen with a higher loan amount.

my mom's colleague bought her house specifically for that very reason because she thought house prices would go up into the stratosphere if she doesn't get in front these 50k millionaires. i think she will look back 5 or 10 years from now and think how foolish she was. you didn't buy your house for investment on sound fundamental analysis or enjoyment but purely for a idiotic reason like this.

it's pretty to easy to say yes or no. they have the data. anyone can look into the data at the land titles office can run a study. I think the government also doesnt want to know. It's easily attainable. We just dont have any systems in place to gather it and analyze it.

Here's an article in the globe and mail today regarding more access to data (although more related to mortgages):

Spoiler!

Canada’s financial leaders are under pressure to provide a clearer picture of the housing market, in the face of conflicting opinions about the health of a sector that is crucial to the national economy.

The issue came to the forefront Thursday after Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal released a strongly worded note, titled “Flying Blind,” in which he said “the gap between the importance of the real estate market to the economy and the lack of publicly available information on it is mind-boggling.”

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One of Canada's top economists is warning about the dangers lurking from the lack of solid data on Canada's housing market. Pamela Ritchie reports.
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His laundry list of information that’s missing includes the share of foreign investors in the condominium market, the distribution of mortgages by credit score and the average down-payment.

Canada’s housing market information is not nearly as detailed as that available in the United States and the lack of data has contributed to strongly opposed views about the health of the market, with some commentators saying home prices are in bubble territory, while others insist there is nothing to worry about. Mr. Tal chose to speak out about his concerns because he believes new financial leadership in Ottawa provides an opportunity for change.

“The time to act is now,” he wrote. “With fresh players steering our policy ship, the new Finance Minister, the new Governor of the Bank of Canada and the new head of CMHC have an opportunity to chart a course that [will] reduce any risk of a real estate bubble by making data availability a top priority.”

Mr. Tal is not alone in his frustration.

“It would be useful to have more information about personal debt and the mortgage market,” says Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander. “If we think that Canada has a problem with excessive personal debt, you need the data to actually assess the vulnerability and what the associated risks are. But the reality is we actually have quite limited information.”

John Andrew, a real estate professor at Queen’s University, agrees more information is vital. “True, we’re not in any sort of crisis now, but that’s only because interest rates are so low, and it would be very much in the public interest to have all of that data that Benjamin Tal is talking about released publicly,” he says.

He’s calling on the banks to make the first move, suggesting that CIBC, for example, could get the ball rolling. “Most of what would be very useful to consumers and to the residential real estate industry could be released without surrendering any significant competitive advantage,” Mr. Andrew says.

Finance Minister Joe Oliver said in an e-mailed statement Thursday that one of the government’s key objectives is ensuring the long-term stability of the housing market. “In this regard, the government has access to – and very closely monitors – a wide variety of housing data,” he said. “I continue to closely monitor Canada’s housing markets, and stand ready to implement further measures if necessary.”

He noted that Canada’s banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, has been asking banks for more data about the housing market.

Not all of that data is publicly available. But a spokesperson for OSFI the Superintendent noted by e-mail Thursday that the regulator has forced banks to publicly disclose more information in areas such as home equity lines of credit and amortization periods.

Observers still have to go to multiple sources to build up a picture of the residential housing market. The Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents realtors, tracks sales and prices of existing homes, while Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., a Crown corporation, monitors indicators such as housing starts. Statistics Canada watches consumer debt, the Bank of Canada looks at how much mortgage credit the banks have given out and private research firms examine the new home and condo markets. But notable gaps remain.

“Because there is a bit of a void on housing data we do have a lot of ill-considered opinions on the real estate market, and it’s hard to completely refute some of the wild talk we’ve had in recent years because the data set is limited,” says BMO Nesbitt Burns chief economist Douglas Porter.

He cautions, however, that more information is not a panacea. Deeper U.S. data did not prevent a housing boom and crash in that country.

Nevertheless, economists say that better information would help to ensure the proper steps are being taken to keep the market healthy.

“If we want well designed public policies, they should be based on sound data,” Mr. Alexander says. He noted that compiling good information can be expensive and pointed to budget constraints at entities such as Statistics Canada as a problem. “In my mind, we’re actually going the wrong direction,” he says.

Holes in housing market data have economists worried - The Globe and Mail

But yes, I think the psychology and "house hornyness" is a bigger problem. Too many people thinking they need to buy now or buy never and putting themselves into huge amounts of debt just so they can buy a house to keep up with the jones' , I'm just soo surprised by how many people I talk to that think that real estate can never go down and that they need to get into the market right away. Especially with the young adults, they all seem to have this condo craze.