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iEatClams · 12-07-2014, 11:00 PM

^ you can say that, I have integrity and cant release the names of the deals that my friends or colleagues work with. or lists of purchasers who purchased, it's private information.

I agree it is a big issue, the data is out there, private companies cant release for obvious reasons (see above). But what bugs me is why the bc government or the cities cant release it. The data is there and is easy to get.

You can't trust data from RE organizations or real estate boards because they represent the realtors and have a vested interest. But governments and cities are suppose to represent the peoples interest, and they should release info to allow us to vote for policies. But I guess Gregor and vision are too deep in developers pockets.

I don't see why other major cities in Australia and Singapore have already placed restrictions on foreign money and admitting that it does play a role in real estate, yet Vancouver and co cant even begin the discussion on it.

For me it doesn't really matter if it goes up or down. I do own a couple properties (purchased in 2009 and 2010 after the correction) so if the market goes up, great. But I just think it hurts the economy in the long term. . .. if market goes down 30-40%, it will just be at the prices that I bought it at. Interest rate increases wont matter much since people can always switch to variable mortgages, and the overnight rate has been the same for last 5 years. I really dont think the BOC will raise the overnight rate by 1%+.

Serious question here, what will it actually take for Vancouver's real estate market to go down say 10% or more?

- Interest rates rising? they said it's gonna be going up for the last 4 years and it hasnt
- Stricter lending practices? It's still pretty easy to get mortgages, but banks and CMHC are getting better and are making it more strict today than it was 5 years ago.
- Cheaper rental rates? many homes have mortgage helpers, and cheaper rents means owners get less money for their illegal suites and such. I see a lot of supply, but rents really haven't gotten cheaper, rates have been consistently the same the last few years. I don't see it dropping, not increasing significantly in the near future.
- Parents running out of money to give to their kids for downpayments? Realistically it may dampen it, but if some rich chinese guy decides to give your parents $1.2 million for that tear down, then your parents wont run out.
- People deciding that home ownership isnt worth the risk and losing all your disposable income for? Not in vancouver where we have the house horny culture and view owning real estate as a social status. It's buy now or buy never mentality in vancouver. too many "paying rent is stupid" type people in this city.
- Restrictions on foreign money? There are articles from Sydney and Melbourne that it has significantly slowed down the rate of increase in prices after they were implemented, but prices are still slowly increasing there (not like Vancouver where we still have 10-15% increase per year)

So in reality, I just don't see a major decrease in real estate prices in the near future. In fact, I'd say prices will be flat or increase or decrease slightly the next few years.

I think there needs to be something systemic like a recession for RE prices to drop. or a major earthquake.

All I know is I wouldn't buy at today's prices. Too much risk since you invest soo much into one asset where prices are peaking and reaching new highs.

Just my two cents.

12-07-2014, 11:00 PM	#2940
iEatClams WOAH! i think Vtec just kicked in! Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Vancouver Posts: 1,687 Thanked 731 Times in 294 Posts Failed 76 Times in 29 Posts	^ you can say that, I have integrity and cant release the names of the deals that my friends or colleagues work with. or lists of purchasers who purchased, it's private information. I agree it is a big issue, the data is out there, private companies cant release for obvious reasons (see above). But what bugs me is why the bc government or the cities cant release it. The data is there and is easy to get. You can't trust data from RE organizations or real estate boards because they represent the realtors and have a vested interest. But governments and cities are suppose to represent the peoples interest, and they should release info to allow us to vote for policies. But I guess Gregor and vision are too deep in developers pockets. I don't see why other major cities in Australia and Singapore have already placed restrictions on foreign money and admitting that it does play a role in real estate, yet Vancouver and co cant even begin the discussion on it. For me it doesn't really matter if it goes up or down. I do own a couple properties (purchased in 2009 and 2010 after the correction) so if the market goes up, great. But I just think it hurts the economy in the long term. . .. if market goes down 30-40%, it will just be at the prices that I bought it at. Interest rate increases wont matter much since people can always switch to variable mortgages, and the overnight rate has been the same for last 5 years. I really dont think the BOC will raise the overnight rate by 1%+. Serious question here, what will it actually take for Vancouver's real estate market to go down say 10% or more? - Interest rates rising? they said it's gonna be going up for the last 4 years and it hasnt - Stricter lending practices? It's still pretty easy to get mortgages, but banks and CMHC are getting better and are making it more strict today than it was 5 years ago. - Cheaper rental rates? many homes have mortgage helpers, and cheaper rents means owners get less money for their illegal suites and such. I see a lot of supply, but rents really haven't gotten cheaper, rates have been consistently the same the last few years. I don't see it dropping, not increasing significantly in the near future. - Parents running out of money to give to their kids for downpayments? Realistically it may dampen it, but if some rich chinese guy decides to give your parents $1.2 million for that tear down, then your parents wont run out. - People deciding that home ownership isnt worth the risk and losing all your disposable income for? Not in vancouver where we have the house horny culture and view owning real estate as a social status. It's buy now or buy never mentality in vancouver. too many "paying rent is stupid" type people in this city. - Restrictions on foreign money? There are articles from Sydney and Melbourne that it has significantly slowed down the rate of increase in prices after they were implemented, but prices are still slowly increasing there (not like Vancouver where we still have 10-15% increase per year) So in reality, I just don't see a major decrease in real estate prices in the near future. In fact, I'd say prices will be flat or increase or decrease slightly the next few years. I think there needs to be something systemic like a recession for RE prices to drop. or a major earthquake. All I know is I wouldn't buy at today's prices. Too much risk since you invest soo much into one asset where prices are peaking and reaching new highs. Just my two cents.