So, Rory Mac will be facing Hector Lombard at UFC 186 on Apr 25th.
Fucking HORRIBLE. This fight makes NO sense to ANYONE not named Hector Lombard.
First of all, it's a second consecutive lose-lose fight for Rory... as in the Saffiedine fight, he'll be a heavy favourite, so a loss would be a huge upset and put the brakes on his title shot, and a win doesn't do much at all for Rory unless it's an impressive, emphatic KO. (Except that he got one of those in the last fight, yet still had the title shot promised to him rescinded.)
It's also dangerous for the UFC. Rory is the only big-name Canadian fighter with a legit chance at the title, and they're already struggling with a shrinking fanbase in Canada.... imagine what a big upset loss would do for Rory's revenue potential? And how will you sell him as the wunkerkid GSP 2.0 future champ after a bad loss?
I don't think there's much chance of that happening in this fight, though. It's going to be a lopsided victory for Captain Creepy.
Quality of competition?? Lombard just defeated... oh right, Josh Burkman. He is on a nice roll and has a few big wins under his belt, but Rory has lost once since 2010, and it was a fairly close split decision against the current champ. Clear edge to Rory in terms of their records.
...and all of that might
still produce an OK fight if there was an intriguing matchup of styles. But no, this will be a stinker, because the easiest and least dangerous way to defeat Lombard is for Rory to do what he did to Ellenberger and Woodley: tire out the opponent, and jab all the way to a 5 round technical striking unanimous decision.
Rory is a technical striker with excellent movement, reach, and a supreme ability control distance, which is great for neutralizing a clunky power puncher like Lombard. Neither Ellenberger nor Woodley came close to landing a big shot against Rory, and like Lombard, both have a grappling background and one-punch power. From what I recall, when Lawler beat MacDonald it was thanks to his aggression, movement, and ability to get inside and land shots. I don't think Lombard poses the same threats at all, especially in movement and controlling distance. It was not a good performance by Rory, either... although one would imagine he has improved since that loss.
I respect Lombard's pedigree and power/athleticism but unless he can sit in top control and grind out an upset decision, I don't see any place where he has an advantage. Rory will be faster, more technical, more calculated, and less likely to fade. He cannot take chances and risk getting caught with a big punch or getting trapped on the bottom. He'll control the distance, jab and beat Lombard in a technical boxing match, and keep the fight standing until the later rounds.
After the fight, Rory will be criticized for playing it safe and not finishing a tired Lombard in the late rounds. The same people who are screaming "this is the guy who will destroy boring rory" before the fight will be the ones preaching about what a bum Hector is and downplaying the significance of a win.
To cap it all off, Lombard just fought so this dullness is nearly four months away, and Rory has already had a few months rest on the back of an easy TKO victory.
Fucking terrible matchup, broskis.
