[jasonturbo]

I'm deeply disappointed in our conservative government at the moment… shameless attempt to band-aid a failing economy until the election. I do believe the conservatives will get another term in office but I very much doubt they will once again benefit from a majority in the house.

Let's assume the conservatives make a 3rd term, I believe the writing will be on the wall, they know the economy is about to take a shit kicking, and they accept that a 4th term will be highly unlikely. So they do what's right and let the chips fall as they may while the great economic reset button gets pushed.

I digress, this is after all, the real estate thread.

This morning I was crunching some numbers, trying to understand what my financial situation will look like when I return to Vancouver in the fall.

So let's assume that prices remain where they are, and that I can only afford 20% down.

Property is a townhouse in North Van with a tandem garage, purchase price is 650K.

650K - 20% down (130K) = 520k to mortgage, no CMHC insurance needed.
3.49% 4 year fixed term, set to weekly payments, would cost about 2707$/month.

Then the property taxes and strata fees work out to 650$/month.

Add up some basic costs then;
2700$ Mortgage
650$ Prop tax/Strata
250$ Utilities
150$ Cable/Porn Connection
200$ Both Cell Phones
500$ Golf Lease Payment
300$ Insurance on Golf/GT3/Home

That brings us to 4750$ of after tax income, for basic living costs, no fuel, no food, no repairs/maintenance of the house of vehicles, no furniture, no social spending, etc.

Annualized that is 57,000$ net or 72,000$ gross, which is median household income in the GVA, and IMO on the high end for most single income earners in Vancouver. (So how the EFFF do normal income earners afford to live lol)

So now on to my specific situation, if I relocate to Vancouver and keep my current position, I will (like my Director) have to fly back and forth to Edmonton every week, essentially having to maintain a flight pass and second residence in Edmonton which I estimated will cost me 4000-45000$/month between shared accommodation with my brother (He's going back to UNI to be a doctor), flight costs, and food etc.

At this time I will be grossing 22600/Month as a contractor, which is a lot of money for most people, so how do my finances look in this situation;

4750$ Vancouver minimum living costs
1200$ Assumed additional costs for food, gas, health care, maintenance, etc.
4500$ Edmonton residence costs, food, etc.
6000$ Personal and corporate taxes (Low tax rates thanks to dividends)

For a grand total of 16450$/month to live and work. I would be able to save roughly 4-5000/month tops. (Factor in the odd vacation, additional costs related to owning a Porsche, eventual costs of having a child, and that number shrinks a fair bit I would say)

Keep in mind, with all the above, I have no pension or benefits btw.

My situation is extreme in many ways and by 2017 I should be working out of the Vancouver office, so that eliminates 4500$ of spending every month. Having said that, my situation is also extreme in that my income puts me in the top 1% of income earners in Canada, and I still feel like living my relatively basic existence (Minus the GT3, but it really doesn't cost me very much money) it's insane to believe the current cost of housing is anything but ludicrous.

Employment numbers IMO are going to be a major driver of the economy very soon, and the only thing the government can do to prop those up and see an immediate impact is though infrastructure projects. The oil sands are largely done the capex intensive initial development, manufacturing sector is pathetic, and housing starts are clearly not where they were a few years ago.

So you have
- dwindling jobs in the oil sand (Which IMO is huge to the Canadian Economy)
- dwindling jobs in residential construction (Housing starts have slowed down considerably)
- dwindling jobs in commercial construction (They won't be building new stores if they aren't building new neighbourhoods, and companies aren't exactly rushing in to build new manufacturing facilities due to our labor market costs)
… and all this on the heels of 5 years worth of emergency interest rates.. so will another .25% make any difference… probably not.

Interestingly enough, one way the dying loonie does benefit the country is that it makes vacations out of country more expensive, likely resulting in more domestic vacations and spending.

Oh, and Canadians are have more debt now than at any point in history, more than Americans have ever had as well. (Ref. debt to income ratios)

Shits cray mang.