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speculation is everything yo. u just have to manage your position and pull out when you realise youre wrong.
u can always get back in. unless your fees rape you, then you should find a new broker.
investing in facts and stats don't work either because that shit is already factored into the market. any info you can get your hands on, everyone else can too. investing in facts and stats is also just speculation... you're speculating that everyone will act on that info.
the only info that works is info which you're one of the early adopters and got in before everyone else acts on it. good luck finding that info.
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