[willystyle]

Originally Posted by Traum

If Trudeau and Mulcair remain true to their word, it seems unlikely that'll be a Conservative minority government at all -- neither Trudeau nor Mulcair will support the Cons, and I doubt there'll be enough Greens / independents to prop Harper up to form a minority government. Reciting from my decidedly poor Canadian parliamentary history, I think there have been past precedence where the party with the most seats did not manage to form government -- the runner up received the blessings (and support) from the 2nd runner up to form government instead.

At this point, it seems most likely to me that we will see some kind of minority government lead by the Liberals, with support coming from NDP. IMO, it makes more sense for Mulcair to seek a coalition government with Trudeau since I think the NDP can squeeze more out of this election that way. If the NDP can secure a coalition government, it means they can have a few NDP MPs to be appointed to key positions -- probably a fixed number of ministers or something along those lines. This will give them a lot more say in federal government operations.

If the NDP are merely happy to play the supporter role, the ministers will all be Liberal MPs. While I see this being an inferior arrangement for NDP, they can still leverage their position and bend the Liberals to accommodate some of their demands when policies are drafted, but without actually doing the heavy duty lifting work themselves. Plus, if things go sideways with certain policies, they can wash their hands clean and claim that it was a Liberals-lead policy, instead of one that is lead by NDP.

Personally, I think a Liberals minority government is more likely, but I would prefer a Lib-NDP coalition instead, since I think a coalition government will likely last longer.

Trudeau didn't appear to have any issues siding with Harper with the passing of Bill C-51.

Mulclair stated yesterday that he will not support the Liberals to form a coalition government. Take it for what it's worth cause politicians always change their damn minds.