Speaking from strictly an economic and financial standpoint, the Lexus will retain the best resale value out of all the vehicles you listed. More so, your cost of ownership will be minimal. The biggest drawback is the initial cost to purchase the vehicles.
I've owned enough BMWs and will not buy another one. Exploding water pumps, radiator fans, leaking power steering hoses are factory features I am not interested in pouring my money in to for a depreciating liability.
I've been following the Mercedes-Benz C-class market for a while. I don't feel they are worth the premium that is being asked on the used market especially after the warranty period is up. I don't know enough about how reliable they are unfortunately.
If you want a fun car, the BMW is your best bet. I would not call the Lexus ES a fun car, but I think the IS will be your best compromise.
