REVscene Automotive Forum - View Single Post

Nlkko · 03-06-2016, 10:02 PM

My 1st personal target for TCK is in the 9 dollars (US). The next one is very high... lol.

Long rambling post (my own speculation):
My reasoning is reflected based on where I think the market sentiment is. If you have been actively trading the past 2 months, you can see the powerful influence of the Central Banks (Draghi, Kuroda, Yellen). They're so much better equipped now to fight recession than they were 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago.

2016, every time the market is about to plunge, there is immediately something happened to take it right back up. They have effectively manipulated the market (in a good way) using the following tools:
- The US dollar (USD/JPY)
- Treasury Bond (TLT)
- Crude (USO)
- News

The direction of the sentiment is quite clear if you look at the last week. Heavy heavy WTI inventory build but USO slightly dump and then ramped right back up, taking market up. Players are positioning for another rate hike. And why not? Economic data is good (slightly) and market has recovered somewhat.

How does this affect stock like TCK? Crude has been taken out back and beaten down. This put a damp on a lot of crude company stock (solid names like SU). This has obliterated beta names like TCK, CHK (2 weeks ago, I was sure CHK will file for Chapter 11), etc. Now that the sentiment is for crude to recover, you can see massive squeeze in those name. For example: TCK, CHK, RIG last week. Keep in mind, the coalition is aiming to FREEZE production. They will never cut. This means no 100 crude. This means crude can trade in a range (likely above 30s). This is also true for other beaten down sectors. I'm sure guys who played steel (X) last week knew this.

Always however, manage your own risk.

PS: If you're interested, you can go down the rabbit hole of theories about why the coalition will freeze but not cut. Lots of history and politics involve.

03-06-2016, 10:02 PM	#9291
Nlkko I help report spam so I got this! <-- Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Vancouver Posts: 2,867 Thanked 1,215 Times in 535 Posts Failed 275 Times in 114 Posts	My 1st personal target for TCK is in the 9 dollars (US). The next one is very high... lol. Long rambling post (my own speculation): My reasoning is reflected based on where I think the market sentiment is. If you have been actively trading the past 2 months, you can see the powerful influence of the Central Banks (Draghi, Kuroda, Yellen). They're so much better equipped now to fight recession than they were 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago. 2016, every time the market is about to plunge, there is immediately something happened to take it right back up. They have effectively manipulated the market (in a good way) using the following tools: - The US dollar (USD/JPY) - Treasury Bond (TLT) - Crude (USO) - News The direction of the sentiment is quite clear if you look at the last week. Heavy heavy WTI inventory build but USO slightly dump and then ramped right back up, taking market up. Players are positioning for another rate hike. And why not? Economic data is good (slightly) and market has recovered somewhat. How does this affect stock like TCK? Crude has been taken out back and beaten down. This put a damp on a lot of crude company stock (solid names like SU). This has obliterated beta names like TCK, CHK (2 weeks ago, I was sure CHK will file for Chapter 11), etc. Now that the sentiment is for crude to recover, you can see massive squeeze in those name. For example: TCK, CHK, RIG last week. Keep in mind, the coalition is aiming to FREEZE production. They will never cut. This means no 100 crude. This means crude can trade in a range (likely above 30s). This is also true for other beaten down sectors. I'm sure guys who played steel (X) last week knew this. Always however, manage your own risk. PS: If you're interested, you can go down the rabbit hole of theories about why the coalition will freeze but not cut. Lots of history and politics involve.