Quote:
Originally Posted by 4444
wrong on vancouver real estate? what defines wrong - going up until it goes down? not being able to give you an exact date when people's emotions change (followed by action) - NO ONE can time anything. those that 'can' get lucky, they cannot over the long term, this is fact.
you may call me wrong as i have not been buying Vancouver real estate in the recent time, but i call myself right as i won't expose myself to this kind of risk, and have been buying many other assets that have grown in value without the risk (or with the fundamentals to support any downside risk).
It's not like i'm sitting on cash, i would argue that my risk adjusted returns are way above those of a 1 house vancouver 'investment' in the short term due to the risk side, i can absolutely guarantee you that my rent/diversified investment strategy will factually beat that of a one or two (or 5) house vancouver investment 'strategy'.
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ROE wise...i doubt it lol
people are buying with 5%-25% downpayment (4x-20x leveraged)
When their house went up 20% in 1 year, their equity went up 80% to 400%
(e.g $200K downpayment on a 2mil house, house went to 2.4mil, their equity just tripled from 200K to 600K)
You can say whatever you like about your knowledge and strategy, but at the end of the day, the winner is the one who came out ahead
Looking at your posts on the first page (2012, 4 years ago), you sounded pretty certain prices were coming down(And I have a feeling your were talking about a declining house price way before 2012 as well).
Sure you didn't specified a time frame, but 4 years is a
pretty fucking long time already. And you'd have to agree, if prices do come down now or in the future do you really think it would go down much more than 2012 level? (it would take a 40% crash for price to drop to 2012 level now)
And if you say prices will "eventually" come down, without giving a reasonable time frame or reference price point....You might as well not say anything because that's a pretty useless statement.