[Hehe]

To say that 15% tax has no effect is very optimistic IMHO.

It all comes down to math. A 2M dollar home now costs 2.3M to foreign buyers, while its value in local buyers is still 2M. The first 2 question to ask is "will the foreign buyer be able to recoup that 15% PLUS a reasonable profit when he/she decides to sell?" and "will this money be better invested elsewhere?"

The first question comes down to the time foreign buyer decides to keep this investment. The 15% tax basically make it impossible for quick deals (buy, hold for 6months, sell for x% profit, rinse and repeat) as it would take a while for the property to go up by 15%+. So the investor has to factor in the risks and cashflow problems during this period.

Second question kinda reverts back to the first question. If by investing elsewhere, investor can get a similar return, but waiting for less time (hence less risk), then why not? If the return is less elsewhere, then would the additional risk be worthwhile for Vancouver?

When you solve these questions, it's not hard to see the effect of this tax because remember, in the scenario I mentioned takes no assumption of market condition (or actually the assumption that the market would continue to grow) and everything else except the tax would stay constant.

Sure some super rich Chinese could have a different expectation and continue to buy, but the tax would act as a barrier preventing those with less affordabilities to enter the market. How much of those people account for the entire market is what we would find out later.