I take a different view on the WTO issue. While the US might pull out (under Trump), I am very skeptical that Japan, EU, and Australia / New Zealand will leave as well. EU member countries have started showing signs of caution in their dealings with China, most notably when it comes to Chinese money further buying up their resources and businesses. But the fact remains that much has already been bought up, and businesses (eg. Mercedes) have continued to show a tremendous apetite to woo the Chinese market. Britain, the ever pragmatic country in Europe, will not hesitate engage China if there is money to be made. Brexit will almost certainly strike a heavy financial blow to UK, so I suspect they wouldn't easily reduce their dealings with China if China can continue to serve as a stable source of revenue.
Australia and New Zealand are pretty much two partially annexed oversea Chinese states now. The level of Chinese inflitration / penetration throughout the countries is unreal. In Australia at least, there are factions that are trying to resist the growing Chinese influence, but it is difficult to tell what will happen.
To me, all of that means even if the US leaves the WTO and starts something new, other countries may join the new body without leaving WTO. For all of its rights and wrongs, it isn't Iran, and Trump / US can't threaten to severe all business dealings with a country if that said country continues to engage in business activities with China. So what good does it do for the US if they simply exclude China from trading with them? IMO, they (the US) can leverage the threat of excluding China better than they can actually kicking China out.
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Originally Posted by Hehe
The problem is that WTO has very little exit clause unless the member chooses to do so.
US, or at least the Trump administration has clearly shown its frustration with WTO when it comes to dealing with China. And EU, at least major members like Germany, England and France are showing some allegiance to US ideologies (you can see how fast Germany reached a framework deal with US on automobile sector).
Hence, I think the rumor of US starting a new alliance between countries with common values is not without ground. Should it really pull the trigger, WTO will have little incentives for major economies like JP, EU or even Australia to stick with WTO if US is indeed pulling out of it.
I'm just worried about Trudeau being too stubborn to stick with the wrong side. Our economy is far too dependent on the US to go against it. It's not about any US supremacy or anything, it's just a realistic view of our economy. I'd love Canada to diversify its dependence on US, but realistically speaking, it's going to be hard, if not impossible, to go the other direction.
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