Polls don't use a large enough sample size and they're "accuracy" is based on outdated methods.
As usual for election time, Facebook is flooded with stupidity.
Example: "If you know any green voters in these 6 ridings, tell them to vote NDP. If they split the vote progressives will lose." Don't even get me started on voting "strategically."
Of course, no one reads the article which says:
https://advancedsymbolics.com/headin...-up-for-grabs/
Quote:
Polly—Canada’s only AI pollster—looked at the voting intention in 6 close races as of October 10th.
...
Research Information
This study was performed by Advanced Symbolics Inc. on behalf the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
Study period for voter support projections:
October 9–10, 2019
Sample Sizes:
Courtenay–Alberni: 560
Cowichan–Malahat–Langford: 347
North Island–Powell River: 315
Davenport: 865
Toronto–Danforth: 1,034
Parkdale–High Park: 800
|
First you have the huge red flag of a poll that's paid for by a union that is advocating for people to vote for the party that most heavily favours unions.
Secondly, assuming it's even unbiased, most ridings have between 100,000 - 110,000 people. Political polls have proven to be incredibly unreliable this decade as they're based on a decades old statistical formula, which only requires a very small percentage of randomly-chosen individuals to be "reasonably accurate." Basically, your costs go up linearly and your accuracy has diminishing returns (square root) the more people you poll.
Third, it's an AI-influenced poll that analyzes social media heavily. Singh was being talked about a lot after the debate, but that doesn't mean people will vote for him.
Quote:
|
Advanced Symbolics’s patented artificial intelligence, named Polly, collects millions of social-media messages, which are then fed through a proprietary algorithm that monitors how events happening in real time are being talked about. The algorithm then compares its findings to patterns Polly has uncovered in the past. In a sense, Polly resembles those computers that collect all the master chess games of history and, on the basis of that aggregated knowledge, anticipate player behaviour to win. In this case, Polly spits out numbers that express the momentum, or lack thereof, behind various political campaigns, based on an analysis of the internet chatter those campaigns generate.
|
I'll be shocked if the Green Party doesn't win Cowichan-Malahat-Langford and the poll has them 4th. The number of Green lawn signs north of the Malahat/south of Ladysmith absolutely dwarfs any other party.